In past Tours de France, the stages after the Alps have been pretty much flat as a pancake.

But Thursday in Stage 18, the Tour organizers have plopped a Category 2 climb and a Category 4 climb in the final 30 kilometers of the 196.5 kilometers from Bourg-d’Oisans to Saint-Étienne. The Cat 2 is Croix de Montvieux at 163 kilometers, and the Cat 4 Côte de Sorbiers sommets at 188 kilometers, just 8.5 kilometers from the finish.

So, I don’t think it’ll be a day for the sprinters. I expect either a breakaway to succeed, or maybe one of the teams within striking distance of G.C. — say, Caisse d’Epargne for Alejandro Valverde, Garmin-Chipotle for Christian Vande Velde, or Columbia for Kim Kirchen — to try to take control of the race and set up a duke-’em-out toward the finish and perhaps gain some time in advance of the decisive time trial on Saturday.

The latter would be difficult, though, with CSC-Saxo Bank being deep and talented enough to defend at teh front of the peloton in support of Carlos Sastre in the maillot jaune. But then again, CSC-Saxo has done a ridiculous amount of work in the high mountains and may be vulnerable to a sustained attack.

As for breakaway candidates, Sylvan Chavanel of Cofidis, Thomas Voeckler of Bouygues Telecom come to mind. Maybe
Filippo Pozzato of the Liquigas boys.

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