The weather forecast for Saturday calls for less than ideal conditions for the decisive time trial at the Tour de France, a 53 kilometer effort from Cérilly to Saint-Amand-Montrond.

Quelques averses … Risque de précip. 30% … Taux maximum d’humidité 75%

Got that? A few showers … 30 percent chance of rain … 75 percent humidity

Swell.

So, as the main contenders are hammering for the glory of the maillot jaune and the podium in Paris, they’ll be sticky and maybe riding on slick roads with the risk of skidding out on any corner, round-about or stripe. On the plus side, the temperature is expected to be in the low 70s, and the wind is expected to be light, 11 kilometers per hour, and from the west-northwest, which will be in the riders’ faces for most of the route.

Still, it’s gonna be wild with six riders battling for the three podium spots, with the possibility of a wet-weather crash just around the bench.

Here are the top six entering the Stage 20 TT

1. Carlos Sastre, CSC-Saxo Bank –
2. Frank Schleck, CSC-Saxo Bank +01:24“
3. Bernhard Kohl, Gerolsteiner +01:33“
4. Cadel Evans, Silence-Lotto +01:34“
5. Denis Menchov, Rabobank +02:39“
6. Christian Vande Velde, Garmin-Chioptle +04:41“

Of these six riders, Evans had the best finish in the Stage 4 TT, which was less than half the distance — 29.5 kilometers.

Evans –
Menchov +00:07“
Vande Velde +00:10“
Sastre +01:16“
Kohl +01:20“
Schleck +01:47

Sastre, whom I discounted in my pre-tour blathering, would need a special ride Saturday to stay in yellow, but given the psychological power of the yellow jersey, he may have it in him. Evans, though, is determined, and he’s had two days to recuperate after the mountain stages to make a big push for the yellow. I think Evans has it in him and will wear yellow in Paris, with Sastre a close second.

I think it’s almost certain that Kohl and Schleck will drop back in the standings Saturday, leaving Menchov and Vande Velde to battle for the third podium spot. I’d like to see Vande Velde do it, but I fear he is too far off after his bum luck in Tuesday’s alpine stage cost him more than 2 minutes.

For the overall stage win, I’m liking David Millar of Garmin-Chipotle and Fabian Cancellara of CSC-Saxo, or perhaps Stefan Schumacher of Gerolsteiner or Kim Kirchen of Columbia. And don’t forget the vets: Big George Hincapie of Columbia and Big Jens Voight of CSC-Saxo Bank. My darkhorse pick: Thomas Lovkvist of Columbia. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Danny Pate of Garmin-Chipotle crack the top 10.

The decisive time trial on Saturday appears to be a battle between Carlos Sastre (left, in the yellow jersey, chatting with CSC-Saxo Bank teammate Fabian Cancellara) and Silence-Lotto’s Cadel Evans (below). Is the stress and fatigue of Evans’ face and Sastre’s relaxed appearance an indication of what’s to come on Saturday? (Photos by Christophe Ena/Associated Press )