Bernie — this column comes out so recently after you wrote If there was an IQ test for pitching acumen — he would flunk it. He makes Marquis look like a Mensa member. –B” That seems like quite the about face. Deride Reyes’ (pitching) intelligence and then clamor for him to be in the rotation. I guess they aren’t mutually exclusive but the spirit of the argument seems disingenuous.

Somebody has been reading vivaelbirdos.com. Great analysis.
>>This much is certain: Reyes and Duncan must broker a truce.

My comment got cut off. Agree that the truce is way overdue but nothing in the makeup of D. Duncan leads me to believe that he would negotiate with a rookie pitcher. An established vet, yeah, but not someone who has not yet earned his respect. DD is a Bobbie Knight, my way or the highway type of coach. He works magic with vets but mixed results with young starting pitchers (see Ankiel, now Reyes, and the undervaluation of Haren). LaDuncan are an extreme stubborn combo. Me thinks they would let Rome burn before setting A. Reyes free from Memphis. If LaDuncan is to return in 2008, the humane thing would be to trade A. Reyes.

Duncan is too stubborn at times. He needs to have Reyes pitch from his strength than something he is not accustomed to. Enough of the posturing, don’t force the issue on the kid. Let him do his own thing.

Bernie, you said:

“First of all, let’s take a closer look at Reyes’ misleading 0-8 record in STL this season before the Cardinals shipped him to Tennessee. Reyes certainly wasn’t dominant, but he pitched well enough to get two or three wins. If you go by The Baseball Prospectus measure of “Expected Wins,” which estimates a fair won-loss total based on how a pitcher performs, Reyes deserved about 2.0 wins, and 4.6 losses.”

And also:

“If the Cardinals had cranked out some runs for Reyes, we wouldn’t have been talking about how they had to sent him out because of his 0-8 record. The perception of him would have been different, and for the better.”

While not arguing that he got poor run support, you’re saying that he should be 2-5 with a 6+ ERA instead of 0-8 with a 6+ ERA? Respectfully, I don’t see much of a difference there.

You also said:

“Moreover, it’s possible to be a flyball pitcher and succeed. In fact, one of Dave Duncan’s favorite pitchers did it in STL for several seasons. Woody Williams was and is an extreme flyball pitcher, and the Cardinals never tried to alter his style.”

However, according to this article:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/2001/postseason/news/2001/10/10/cannella_williams/

Duncan did in fact do to Woody what he’s trying to to with Anthony - teach him a new pitch:

“Indeed, Williams’ competitiveness may have been as important to the Cardinals’ playoff push as his 7-1 record and 2.28 ERA after the trade. Duncan taught Williams a slider, a pitch that made him much more effective and confident against right-handed hitters. Williams returned the favor by bringing a sense of urgency and enthusiasm to the team.”

Woody was a flyball pitcher before his time with the Cardinals, and is a flyball pitcher now. However, during his tenure in St. Louis, he was a neutral pitcher, with nearly a 1:1 ratio of flyballs to groundouts.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2867

When you figure that Reyes has options and thus can be sent down to Memphis without losing him, I don’t see the problem in letting an obviously talented individual work his way through a rough patch in Memphis while the Cardinals try something else to get some wins.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your assertion that Reyes can be effective living up in the zone - he has to be doing something well to have the success he’s had in Memphis. I think both Reyes and Duncan are being a bit hard-headed here, and both are to blame to a degree for his lack of success at the ML level.

But I don’t necessarily agree with how you presented your arguments - dissecting micro-stats and misremembering past examples of successful pitchers.

I do appreciate the new Blog, Bernie. This style suits you well, and I like that you take the time to research and post these stats.

-RBB

Disingenuous? Hmmm… as for my previous comments, well, Reyes isn’t the smartest pitcher. That remains true. That hasn’t changed. Did I say in this blog that he was Einstein? No, I didn’t. Did I say he gained baseball IQ points? No, I didn’t. So I’m not sure where there’s an about face, unless someone is a lot more worried about every word I write instead of being concerned by how poorly the Cardinals’ starters pitch. Have you looked at the Cardinals’ rotation lately? Have you looked at how Reyes has pitched since he was sent down, and long after my comment about how he’s not exactly a MENSA member? When the starting pitching is so bad at the big-league level, and you have a talent like Reyes, you try to work with it; you don’t waste it. He went 8 IP at Memphis lasyt night. The Cardinals are struggling to get starters into the fifth inning these days. Hope you are less confused now.

As for the comment about vivaelbirdos — I’ve written and said about a combined 100 times that it’s the greatest, and I have nothing but admiration for Larry Borowsky. He’s the best. One of his greatest qualities is, unlike some bloggers who write about the Cardinals, he’s secure enough in his own ability to analyze that he doesn’t waste his time or space dogging mainstream sportswriters, which you see some other terribly insecure Cardinals bloggers do. And as someone who frequently discusses stuff that we’ve written in the P-D, I think Larry would be among the first to tell you that it’s OK for more than one person or web site to analyze a situation.

Thanks to all for reading the blog.

–B

Thanks for the comments, RBB. I don’t have a problem with sending a younger guy with options to Memphis to work things out. I think my point was that his continued presence in Memphis doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense right now. Also, true, Woody was more of a neutral FB/GB pitcher during his time in STL. Thanks for pointing that out. But he was never the kind of heavily-titled GB pitcher that Duncan favors. I guess that’s a point I could have made it better. Sorry. Williams told me on more than one occasion that more than anything, what Duncan gave him was a mental plan of attack. Preparation on a level that he’d never experienced before. I think that had more of an impact than anything else.

Again, thanks.

–B

Hate to break this to anyone, but throwing a bunch of pitching stats making him look like Sandy Koufax doesn’t hide the fact that - his ERA is 6.08, he has yet to survive past the 6th inning and has not faced the greatest of teams (Houston, Pitt, Cubs(2), Washington, Colorado).

Hey Bernie - I sent you an e-mail before I noticed the post a comment link. Anyway, I pretty much agree that they might as well let him take his lumps with the big club if they are going to keep him (could they possibly be trying to rebuild his trade value in the minors?). Anyway, the splits you provided on up/low in/middle/out pitches were interesting, but it also had me thinking. How many times has he missed the strike zone throwing the ball high and how many times has he missed the strike zone low? After all, pitch count, if anything has been Anthony’s problem most of the season. I tried to find the stats, but no luck. I even tried to just find the number of pitches called ball and number called strike and had no luck. I am not very good at finding stats, but I did stumble across his splits on ESPN.com and one thing did stick out, batting average against with runners on base. When there is a runner on base, the opposing team is hitting .346, obp .407, slg .628 and ops 1.035. Runners in scoring position is the same except the slugging goes up to .694 and raises the ops to 1.101. With no runners on base Reyes is a lot better with batters only hitting .200, obp .264, slg .322 and ops .586. And this is almost opposite of the splits from last year. In 2006 with runners on they were avg .237, obp .302, slg .467 and ops .769 and in scoring position avg .257, obp .318, slg .486 and ops .803. But in 2006 with no runners on they were hitting .280, obp .365, slg .543 and ops .908. What is he doing different this year with runners on base? I know Duncan preaches pitching to contact, especially with runners on base, but letting them hit a double does not help get a double play. Anyway, sorry for the book, just something to think about. Keep up the great work.

Thanks for the time,
Chad
Des Moines, IA

Appreciate the reply Bernie. That helps clear things up for me.

Do you know if Reyes has indeed altered his plan of attack on the mound in Memphis, or is he doing the same thing down there and it’s just working better against lesser talent?

Assuming he’s made a correction, bring him back up. Send Jiminez down and move either Wellemeyer (preferably) or Thompson to the pen. Sit Duncan and him down. Tell Ant’ny: ‘Remember what you were doing in Memphis? Do that’. Tell Dunc: ‘See what he was doing in Memphis? Let him do that’. And then see where it goes from there.

-RBB