Nice opener  in KC, eh?

Yikes.

With the Cardinals’ rotation looking more tattered by the day, Anthony Reyes’ continued presence at Triple A Memphis makes less sense than ever.

I’m not saying the guy is Tom Seaver, or Jim Palmer, or even Jeff Suppan. But Reyes is a  RHP with talent, and he’s a natural starting pitcher, and he was good enough to win Game 1 of the 2006 World Series, and  since being demoted to Memphis he’s allowed  four ER in 22 IP, with 3 BB and 16 Ks. That looks pretty good right about now.

Tuesday night, Reyes won in Memphis by going  eight  strong innings (four hits, one run). He prevailed in a pitching duel against Milwaukee’s top pitching prospect, Yovani Gallardo.  

Time to bring Reyes back.

First of all, let’s take a closer look at Reyes’ misleading 0-8 record in STL this season before the Cardinals shipped him to Tennessee. Reyes certainly wasn’t dominant, but he pitched well enough to get two or three wins. If you go by The Baseball Prospectus measure of “Expected Wins,” which estimates  a fair  won-loss total based on how a pitcher performs, Reyes deserved about  2.0 wins, and 4.6 losses.

Reyes was victimized by poor run support.

The Cardinals  scored 10 runs  during his 50.1 IP on the mound.

With  help from STATS, here’s the run-support average per game for each Cardinal starting pitcher this season, through  Tuesday:  

Wellemeyer: 8.27

Thompson: 5.31

Wainwright: 4.80

Looper: 4.00

Wells: 2.99

Reyes: 1.79

If the Cardinals had  produced more runs for Reyes, we wouldn’t have been talking about how they had no choice but to send him down because he was 0-8 and his confidence was shot and blah, blah, blah. And the perception of how he pitched would have been better.

There’s nothing wrong with Reyes’ confidence. Comfort is the issue. Reyes prefers to throw the four-seam fastball up; pitching coach Dave Duncan likes the two-seamer down. The Cardiinals as a starting staff are pitching to Duncan’s grid. They have the second-highest ground ball rate in among NL rotations. But where has it gotten them? Their starter ERA is the worst in the league, and would be the highest in franchise history in a non-strike season.

Moreover, it’s possible to be a flyball pitcher and succeed. In fact, one of Duncan’s favorite pitchers did it in STL for several seasons. Woody Williams was and is  an extreme flyball pitcher, and the Cardinals never tried to alter his style.

And some flyball pitchers are  doing pretty well so far this season. The Top 10 list of highest flyball-rate pitchers includes Chris Young (6-3, 2.34), Oliver Perez (6-5, 2.31), Johan Santana (6-6, 3.24), John Maine (6-3, 2.78), and Ted Lilly (4-4, 3.96).

So why are the Cardinals drawing such a hard line with Reyes?

Again, with help from STATS, the best numbers people in the biz,  and the most generous friends a numbers-hungry sportwriter can have, I was able to come up with a  loose breakdown of what happens when Reyes throws fastballs up in the strike zone.

It ain’t so bad.

Against RH batters, when he throws the fastball for a strike up and away, they make contact on 20 percent of their swings, and are batting .200. (Small sample size, 17 pitches).

Against RH batters, when Reyes throws high fastballs for a strike over the middle, they’ve connected on 53.3 percent of their swings, and are batting .250. (More representative sample size; 71 pitches).

What we see is that Reyes gets smoked when he comes in on RH hitters in the strike zone with a high fastball. The RH bats connect on 60 percent of their swings and hit .600. But we’re also talking about another small sample here; only 13 pitches.

Against LH bats, it’s more problematic for Reyes: they connect 66.7 percent of the time and hit .250 against Reyes  on fastball strikes, up and away; .400 against him on high fastballs o’er the middle; and .333 on  up-and-in strikes with the fastball. It’s a small sample  size, with only 30  high fastballs overall. But obviously, it doesn’t work as  well for him  vs. the LH batters.

OK, so what happens when Reyes is a good boy, follows Duncan’s orders and  pounds the fastball low in the strike zone?

Against RH batters, when Reyes works fastballs low and away but in the strike zone, they have a connect rate of 60 percent, and the batting average is .125. (25 pitches).

Against RH batters, when Reyes leaves a low fastball over the middle of the strike zone, there’s a 50 percent connect rate, and a .333 batting average. (But only 12 pitches).  

Against RH batters, when Reyes finds the strike zone low and in (only seven pitches), they’ve banged him for a .500 batting average.  

Any lessons? Well, unless he’s getting the ball away in the strike zone when he works down, Reyes is vulnerable.

Reyes hasn’t gotten into too much trouble on those thigh-high fastballs in the strike zone that aren’t really classified as high or low. I won’t go into it, but basically RH batters have hit his inside fastballs there, and LH hitters haven’t.

With Reyes, it’s obvious that location is more important than North-South geography. He can pitch up, and succeed, as long as he’s hitting his spots. When Reyes misses inside, he’s going to get bruised.  That’s true of most pitchers.

But Reyes clearly is more confident when he works up in the zone with the four-seamer.

So bring him up … and let him work up, and see how it goes. What do the Cardinals have to lose except more winnable games?

And if the hitters punish Reyes  when he does it his way, then he should surrender and rtry to do it Duncan’s way.

This much is certain: Reyes and Duncan must broker a truce.

Reyes has too much talent and potential to waste at Memphis.

And this team isn’t exactly teeming with a row of terrific starting pitchers right now.

Late add: if nothing else, Reyes is a  trade piece for a more established starter. As colleague Joe Strauss informs  us, there’s some interest   in Reyes among other teams. One way or the other Reyes can still be an asset for the Cardinals.

-B