The Kipper
Yes it’s well past 4 a.m. I’m up late. It’s my Thursday wee-hours tradition. I put the i-pod on shuffle, hoping that some weird but satisfying combinations will pop up.
(Sidebar: a little while ago, and I kid you not, here were two songs that came up in order: “Sabotage” by the Beastie Boys, followed by “Beauty and the Beast” by Angela Lansbury. It would be impossible to plan that. Randomness can be a beautiful thing.)
Anyway, every Thursday night, I drink some coffee and work on the Bernie Bits. It’s almost time to pack it in. But before I sign off, before I can sleep, I must state the obvious.
Memo to Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan:
Please stop the fight.
Call it a TKO.
Do the merciful thing.
You guys can’t keep running Kip Wells out there to take a beating every five days. If you do, you’ll be hearing from Amnesty International. After games these days, poor Wells, a nice man, looks as confused as the million of Americans who watched the final scene of The Sopranos.
Wells lasted 1.1 innings in Thursday’s 17-8 pasting by the Royals, and he dropped to 2-11 on the season.
Look, I know your hearts are in the right place; you want to give Kip time to turn things around. I know you don’t have a list of appealing, ready-made options to plug into the rotation, so you’ve been giving Kip even more rope to … oh, never mind.
Anthony Reyes is about the best bet, for reasons we discussed in our most recent blog.
Whatever you decide, from now on, it’s gotta be anybody but the Kipper.
Is there a chance for a miracle? Well, in fairness, I suppose it’s possible.
Andy Benes comes to mind. Let’s go back to 2002. After three starts, the big fella was 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA. He had gimpy knees and a sore back. The Cardinals encouraged him to retire, but Benes refused. So he was placed on the DL, and went home. For six weeks or so, Andy drove carpools for his kids and played some golf and tended to his lawn and never picked up a baseball. But in June, Darryl Kile died suddenly, and a little while after that Woody Williams had to go on the DL, and the Cardinals were running out of options. They used 14 starting pitchers in 2002. And so just like that, a call was made to the ‘burbs, and the Dad driving the carpool was asked to come back to Busch.
And at age 35, Benes agreed to come back to the team. Expectations were low. After a couple of rehab starts in the minors, Benes returned to the active big-league roster in mid-July. From that point on, Benes went 5-2 with a 2.13 ERA (including two postseason starts) and the Cardinals won 11 of his 16 starts, including their lone victory in the five-game NLCS loss to the Mets. It was an amazing comeback.
Benes retired on top, after that 2002 rally.
It was a happy ending for everyone.
I don’t see a happy ending for Kip Wells.
When Benes got rocked in 2002, his creaky knees and back had a lot to do with it. Wells, by all indications, is healthy.
At some point, we just have to conclude that Wells isn’t very good, and there is little or no hope that he will do in 2007 what Andy Benes did in the late summer of 2002.
Let’s move on.
A long time ago, when I was trying to learn how to play the horses at the Baltimore-area tracks, I took in some advice from the great Andrew Beyer, the legendary handicapper who writes about thoroughbreds for the Washington Post.
When you look at a maiden-claiming race (featuring horses that have never won), always stay away from the proven losers. Take a chance on a young horse that has a few races of experience; such a horse has a chance to find a truer form and improve. But avoid those runners that have a long history of losing; they just aren’t going to get to the winner’s circle, and nothing will change. It was good counsel. I cashed some tickets that way.
If believe Kip Wells has reached the point where he’s an automatic toss-out in the race if we’re trying to identify a likely winner.
(I know I’m mixing boxing and horseracing metaphors, but what the heck, it’s 4:30 in the morning, so gimme a break.)
Consider:
Since the start of the 2004 season, Wells is 17-41.
That winning percentage (.293) is the second-worst during that time among all major-league starting pitchers with at least 50 starts.
And you know who’s No. 1 on that list of worst winning percentage?
Uh, maybe you don’t want to know. The answer is Ryan Franklin at 12-31 (.279) in his pre-STL days. OK, so maybe it really is a good idea to keep Franklin in the bullpen, where he’s doing a solid job for the Cardinals. There goes another option…
It isn’t just Kip’s won/loss record. A pitcher’s W-L ledger can be misleading.
Not in this case. Or not much, anyway.
Since the start of the 2004 season, Wells has the 7th-highest ERA (5.38) among major-league pitchers with at least 50 starts. The only starters with higher ERA inflation are Casey Fossum (5.94), ol’ friend Sidney Ponson (5.75), Joel Pineiro (5.64), Ramon Ortiz (5.50), Scot Elarton (5.46), and Eric Milton (5.45).
And during the same time frame (2004 until present), only three starting pitchers have allowed more baserunners per nine innings: Russ Ortiz (15.76), Jamey Wright (15.24) and Ponson (15.13). Wells’ rate is 14.87 runners per nine innings.
I could go on with negative stats. But why look at more numbers? We don’t have to go to the judge’s scorecards to determine that this bout is over.
Stop the fight.
-B
Tony seems to give Kip the benefit of the doubt for his won/loss record and no slack to Reyes for his. Isn’t that excactly backwards of what seems to be reality. Reyes has had dismal offensive support and has shown the ability to keep us in the game. Kip has had decent run support and consistently gets us blown out of the game. Does it have to do with saving face over the money we spent to get Kip Wells? I say cut our losses and put the best people in the job. Kip needs to go away and Reyes needs to come back.
Wells has to go, but who do you replace him with? Management’s allowing the mass exodous of the entire rotation in the off season has left the Birds with no options. Reyes isn’t the right choice. His numbers aren’t much better, and there is significan risk of his “going Ankiel” if you don’t let him regroup in Memphis and get some hitters out before returning.
Reyes is the future, and you can’t jeopardize that for a team that isn’t going anywhere anyway. What they need is a journeyman to tread water until Carp and Moulder return. Someone that doesn’t thrill but can at least keep you in the game.
To continue on with Bernies Metaphor…….you can’t beat a dead horse. Once he’s down, beating him some more doesn’t increase his deadness. It’s time to move on
Um, why do you have Angela Landsbury on your ipod? I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt, maybe your cute little niece downloaded it for you, I don’t know…but some things should be kept to ourselves.
Charles, you said Reyes wasn’t the answer? Would you favor keeping Wells in the rotation over bringing Anthony back up? That’s hilarious. The bottom line to Reyes is this: he needs to do his business or get off the pot. The guy’s 26, he’s not a kid, he’s a man with plenty of experience including an amazing start in the FIRST GAME of the World Series! Give me a break. He’s not going to “go ankiel” and if he does it’s time to give up on him too and get him some new pastures to roam. The most runs Reyes gave up this year was 7 in 9 innings. That’s a bit better than Well’s KC masterpiece, 6 in 1.1 innings. Lets compare a couple things to see who the better option would be for the rotation at this point. ERA: Wells - 8.88, Reyes - 6.08. BB/SO: Wells - 33/35, Reyes 18/39. Average IP in their last 10 are almost identical at 50.2 for Wells and 50.1 for Reyes, hits are not. Wells: 67, Reyes: 50. They need to stop tinkering so much with Reyes and let him pitch. Up in the zone or down in the zone, do what makes him comfortable, and if he’s going to be stubborn about listening and TLR can’t take the complaints from Dunc, then trade Reyes and drop Franklin into the rotation. For Reyes, the minors isn’t going to help his progression at this point, he is what he is, and as far as talent goes, Wells isn’t anywhere near Reyes for pure talent. It’s time to see what we have in Reyes and ride him down this dark and winding tunnel we call 2007 MLB.
OK, I’m getting pounded on the disclosure that I have Angela Lansbury on my i pod. I guess some things should be kept in private. However, since I am also getting e-mails about this (and my compliments to many of you on your sense of humor), please allow me to explain.
1. My taste in music is diverse, to say the least. You wouldn’t believe the stuff I have on my i-pod. From Sex Pistols to Sinatra, as I like to say. I got some strange stuff on there. Including the call (in Spanish) of Pujols’ HR off Lidge in Game 5, 2005 NLCS. Always interesting when that one pops up on the shuffle, following, say, “Beat on the Brat” by the Ramones, when we have people over.
2. As for that particular song, Beauty & the Beast — I declare my guilt but appeal to the mercy of the court here, for I have powerful sentimental reasons. The song takes me back to when my daughter was young, and she loved the movie so much, and we saw it in the theater a few times, and then we played the video at home, and she would sing the song. It just brings back some terrific and meaningful memories for me, and so one day, when I was searching for another song, and saw the Lansbury version of Beauty & the Beast, I was in a nostalgic mood, and I downloaded it.
May I plead out and recive a reduced sentence?
Do I have a chance at probation?
Would it help me gain leniency if I pointed out that Father’s Day is Sunday?
–B
You know what B-? I have a little girl at home too that means the world to me for a number of reasons. I think maybe people are shocked by the song and artist for a number of reasons, but your reasons for having it are admirable. You have to cherish the memories of those little ones and never let go of them….one day..when they are all grown up….you have to have a way to think back and remember those special times at the theater, or in front of the tv, or the time when you and your daughter went to (fill in the blank). Kudos to you for not forgetting those moments, and for my part, if folks want to put you on trial for that, THE fordpartsman has issued a full and unconditional pardon!!!
Oh and kudos on the Kipper article today too…..its high time someone sent him packing.
Having someone from Memphis up here and pitching is better than allowing Wells to go out and bomb every game he pitches. At least they could hopefully get to the 5th inning and maybe further. Look at what Detroit did last year with their rookies. Time for the Cardinals to quit relying on veterans all the time and let the young guys get some time.
There’s no time in this game to give anyone “the benefit of the doubt.” And even if there were, that bird has flown with Wells. I hope he has pitched his last game here, although I wonder if we’ll suddenly hear that he has been pitching with a sore knee? Perhaps they’ll put him on the DL and keep us all in suspense as to his real potential?
Ugh. Bring back Reyes. He might be better. He won’t be worse.
I know we lean on him for a lot these days, but the question has to be asked. Can Albert pitch? (Ha, ha.)
I was surprised to wake up this morning and find that
Wells was still a Cardinal. With Walt on hand to see the disaster that took place last night I was sure he would act. There is no reason even to move Wells to the bullpen. Bring Reyes back or move Franklin into the rotation but Wells needs new home.
Bernie, I HAVE NEVER BEEN A DUNCAN FAN WHEN IT COMES TO DEVELOPING YOUNG TALENT — ANKIEL BENES REYES ARE EXAMPLES IN ADDITION THE CARDS SCOUTING SYSTEM ON SELECTING YOUNG PITCHERS I BELIEVE NEEDS TO BE ATTACKED. WE ARE HURTING FOR PITCHING AND THE CARDS SELECT A SS AS THEIR NUMBER ONE. IT DOES NOT LOOK WE HAVE ANYONE IN TRIPLE A UNLESS WE JUST BRING UP A GET EXPERIENCE AND PPPLEASE STOP PITCHING WELLS AS BERNIE SUGGESTS. I USED TO THROW IN HIGHSCHOOL AND I CAN THROW STRIKES JOHN
Do you think cardinal ownership and upper management is embrassed by the product they have put on the field this year, especially in view of the high ticket prices they charge and the way they strongarmed the city and state into financing their new stadium?
I think the Wells stuff, Weaver stuff goes to show you that there is only so much Duncan can do. HE cannot give guys heart (Wells has none) he cannot get guys to challenge in the zone, Wells does not, inooportune walks and HBP’s lead to big innings, he is his own worst enemy. They need to take immediate action to stop a mindset that could hit. Yes, we are 5 1/2 back in the worst division ever, but mentally it could be too late if we wait much longer. There is little to do except trade Rolen for somebody looking to get a name for the season, because no one is giving up pitchign and basically no one has any available except young arms on rebuilding teams. Kennedy is bad too, he needs to go, he cannot play d or hit, leadoff at 210 and bad d up middle-ouch. Platoon LF, iffy Edmonds, Encarnacion erratic but going better, Rolen hurting, Eck fragile but heart of a lion, Albert-of course the man, pitching staff way over their head, done in any division, unless abombshell is dropped and it does not look forseeable. I would like to see how they react in a stronger division that they would be out of. I know Yankees have money like no one, but they quietly reeled off 10 game winning streak and are within striking distance with Triple A pitching except for Pettite and Mussina (aging) so they weathered their storm with no panic, but we have no veterans in staff to do it with injuries, Mulder trade was bad, Billy Bean fooled another team-genius GM, but Walt is great too. Face it, last year’s magic ain’t happening again, Reyes has no strikeout pitch and is a #5 at best. Band-aids, band-aids. Like Bernie said earlier enjoy the long bumpy ride. Royals did not have Grudzie and Sweeney in line-up and still scored that many, nor Sanders. HMMM!
I don’t follow the Cardinals minor league teams, but it seems like we could find some guys at the Triple A or even Double A levels that could replicate what we are watching with the starting pitching. I realize the starters have been decimated by injuries, but why play around with guys like Looper and Wells. Bring up some of the young guys, give them some valuable experience, and we might be pleasently surprised. And if not, it can’t be any worse than having to bring in Spezio to save innings.
Given the Cardinals financial approach, the lack of alternatives, and the fact they have to pay Wells for the season, I would be pleasantly surprized if they let Wells walk. We are in for a challenging year.
Can you remember Joe Torre’s teams in the early 90’s?
Suppan and Marquis gone and doing well for their new teams. Cardinals pitching sucks. Smart moves, management. This is really working out quite well for the Cardinals.