Curves in Lohse’s Road
The Cardinals didn’t enjoy much good luck in 2007, and the first day of 2008 didn’t shine upon them, either.
A 5-1 lead over the Rockies was rained out, and the teams will start all over again Tuesday night at Busch.
The Cardinals will get to see old pal Kip Wells, who makes the fill-in start for the Rox.
Wells has arguably been the worst starting pitcher in baseball over the the past four seasons, going 20-47 with a 5.39 ERA. He has the poorest winning percentage (.299) of any MLB starting pitcher since the start of the 2004 season, and only two have a more bloated ERA.
As a starter, Wells was 5-17, 6.27 for the Cardinals last season – and went 2-7 with a 5.82 ERA at Busch.
( I didn’t have to remind you, did I? )
Kyle Loshe is set to make his Cardinal debut.
Lohse has liked the Busch experience as a visiting player, going 1-1 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts at the new Busch.
I’m interested in seeing how Lohse does. He’s an important part of any scenario that features the Cardinals doing better than predicted.
Lohse is a bit of an enigma. There are quirks in his resume. Since coming to the NL in 2006, he’s pitched really well in some true hitter-haven ballparks. He has a 3.43 ERA in 14 starts at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, and a 3.52 ERA in six starts at Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Park. That means he’s gotten raked in some yards that should favor pitchers.
One thing about Lohse is, he’s usually terrific or awful….he’s an extreme pitcher.
Over the last two seasons, Lohse has a 1.62 ERA when he wins, and a 10.17 ERA when he loses.
If you are watching Tuesday’s game at home, where you can really monitor pitches, keep an eye on this one:
How many curveballs does Lohse throw?
Lohse has been a fastball-slider guy. Last season he threw fastballs 52 percent of the time, and sliders 23 percent, with 18 percent changeups.
Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan wants Lohse to tap into the curve more, and for good reason.
Lohse has all but abandoned the pitch in recent seasons.
In 2007, Lohse threw curves 6 percent of the time.
In 2006, Lohse threw 2,096 pitches to hitters, and only 10 were curves. That’s not even 1 percent.
And in 2005, the curveball was his pitch of choice 1 percent of the time.
Lohse made more use of the curve earlier in his career — and whether it’s a coincidence or not, that’s when he had his best years.
In 2002, Lohse went 13-8 with a 4.23 ERA for the Twins and 13 percent of his pitches were curves.
In 2003, Lohse was 14-11, 4.61 for the Twins and threw curves on 11 percent of his pitches.
The Rockies are a strong fastball hitting team, and they’ll undoubtedly be looking for it Tuesday. So the curve could be an effective tool and diversion for Lohse. In the last couple of seasons he’s gotten crushed when falling behind the hitters to set up traditional fastball counts (1-0, 2-0, 3-1). That’s another reason to throw a curve.
Thanks for reading….
Now I return you to the ever-popular Bird Land and serial blogger D. Goold!
–B
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