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04.27.2008 8:54 pm

Rams Draft: Throw Away the Report Cards

Good (Sunday) evening…

I’ve never understood why fans of a team worry about what some guys on ESPN or the NFL Network say in declaring instant judgment on the team’s draft. 

Of all the foolish things in sports, one of silliest are these immediate report cards that pop up only hours after the NFL completes its annual draft. And worse than that, some fans want to believe that an instant draft grade is  the end all in determining success or failure. They get outraged for no reason… or celebrate … for no logical reason.

Sorry — I’m gonna watch the kids play for a year or two, and then we can talk about grades.

No one has flunked yet. No one has made the Dean’s list.

No one has even put a helmet on yet, for cripe’s sake.

How the heck does anyone know about the quality of the Rams draft when the players haven’t signed, haven’t been fitted for a uniform, haven’t practiced, haven’t made the team, haven’t played in a real game, haven’t gone through an entire season?

What’s the point?

It was crazy to see the hysterical reaction Saturday when the Rams drafted Houston wide receiver Donnie Avery in the second round. You’d think that the team had drafted Clyde Duncan, or something. Why? Because ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Todd McShay said taking Avery at No. 33 was a reach. Therefore, gullible fans believed it to be true. Other draft services had good marks on Avery, but since Mel is a celebrity draftnik, and he’s on TV, well it means that everything is as he says it is … right? TV is the God of a dumbed-down culture.

Meanwhile, a hard-working draft guy like Russ Lande Jr. of The Sporting News’ “War Room” had it scoped out ahead of time. Lande, a former NFL scout, is on the phone a lot, working the GMs and scouts and personnel people. And on April 24, Lande wrote that there was a lot of buzz about Avery, and that he was moving up the charts, and was into the second round, and could even get into the first round. In other words, Lande had it figured out. He wasn’t caught off guard, the way some of the other so-called experts were. And just because the celebrity draftheads failed to detect Avery’s huge upward move on NFL draft boards, that doesn’t mean the Rams were wrong to draft him. I’m not saying Lande is right about Avery, either. But at least I know the guy was busting his tail and doing his homework up until the draft started.

I have no idea if Avery will be a bust, or a star.

But I can see at least why the Rams viewed Avery as a fit.

Xx The Rams wideouts were slow last year — and this kid has great speed.

Xx The Rams wideouts got few yards after the catch last season — and Avery got good marks for his runs after the catch. (By the way, for the naysayers who point out that Avery played in a non BCS Conference, therefore his yards after the catch don’t mean much because they came against weaker competition. Really? Last season, among the top 15 wideouts in the NFL in yards after the catch, you could find players from Western Michigan (Greg Jennings), Northwest Oklahoma State (Patrick Crayton), Alabama-Birmingham (Roddy White), Central Florida (Brandon Marshall), Alcorn State (Donald Driver) and Utah (Steve Smith).

Xx New offensive coordinator Al Saunders wanted vertical speed, which the Rams lack — and Avery has it.

Xx Saunders wanted a WR he could put in the slot, and force the DBs to account for his scintillating downfield speed — instead of letting safeties cheat up to stop the run or take away the intermediate pass routes. Let’s see a safety have to cover Avery in the slot.

Xx The great Henry Ellard (Rams receivers coach) gave Avery a high grade.

So why in the world would anyone get their pants bunched up because Mel Kiper didn’t like the pick? The same fans who were throwing tantrums last year when Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett would make a catch and fall down are among the same people now snarling about the Rams drafting a 4.29 speed guy with a history of production, and an ability to cut loose and make things happen after the catch.

I also laughed at those who declared that Avery would have been there in the third round.

Not a chance.

There was a wild run on wideouts in the second round… 10 wideouts went off the board in round two. And if the Rams hadn’t popped Avery at No. 33 overall, there is no way he would have lasted the rest of the round. He would have been long gone by the start of Round 3; someone would have taken a chance on that speed.

Again: this doesn’t mean Avery will be just what the Rams need. All of these WRs had flaws in some way; that’s why none were taken in the first round. Still, there’s no question that Avery brings an interesting mix to the field. 

I also went back to read what draftniks had to say after the 1994 draft, when the Rams chose a WR in the second round, and at No. 33. Just like Avery. And their choice of that wideout was largely panned as a “reach.”

The receiver’s name?

Isaac Bruce.

Look, the Rams haven’t had a great recent draft history… which is why they recruited Billy Devaney to run things, and this was his first draft. Maybe this draft will stink in a couple of years. Maybe it will look great in two years. But for now it appears that the Rams landed a winner in Chris Long and a potential game-changer in Avery. They tried to add depth at the OL.  They added another receiver, Keenan Burton, which really gives the team a chance to freshen up a tired WR group. Didn’t we all agree they needed some younger, faster legs at WR?

Will these new Rams pay off, or fade away?

I have no idea. Neither does Kiper or anyone else.

Let the players play.

And we’ll watch.

And then we’ll know.

And in a couple of years, we can bring out the damned report cards.

Thanks for reading…

–B

18 comments

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The fact that people take either Kiper’s or Todd McShay’s word as gospel just floors me. They’re nothing but a couple of statheads who, thanks to ESPN, FOX, and every other sports outfit in this country, have an overblown sense of self-importance. My favorite part of any of the drafts in the last several years was when Jim Irsay, I think it was, called Kiper out on live TV. I wish more GM’s, owners, and players would do that on a regular basis.

— cardsrul
9:48 pm April 27th, 2008

thank you bernie for saying that.it just amazes me how when the rams don’t pick the guys the rams fans want everything is gone downhill then they listen to these espn so called draft experts and when espn don’t like the pick it confirms there own doubts about the picks which makes them even more upset then they want to fire everybody in the front office.these fans don’t have the patiance to wait and see.hopefully oneday they will,when avery avg. 18 yards a catch and 7 tds then they will know

— The Rambler
11:53 pm April 27th, 2008

Holy cow! After reading all the whining this weekend about the Rams drafting Avery at WR with no. 33 I am so happy to see someone with some sense. If Kiper and McShay were that smart, they would have jobs with an NFL organization, not ESPN. Quite frankly, I think Rams personnel like Al Saunders and Henry Ellard know a whole lot more about WRs and what the Rams need than Kiper and McShay could ever imagine; we won’t be able to properly judge this draft until 2010!

— timbod99
2:07 am April 28th, 2008

I think us draft followers need a week to decompress

Good stuff Bernie…all good and valid points.

Tampa Bay had Avery as the #1 WR on the board, compared him to Joey Galloway…they liked him so much they grabbed a carbon copy of him in the 2nd..Dexter Jackson…who is smaller, not as fast, not as productive, doenst have as good of hands and was a 4th round projection.

Speed rises……DeSean Jackson would have made sense..but there were red flags with his weight, lack of effort in the weight room and some me first WR primadona stuff.

Devin Thomas had 1 year of production..and he was elavated by his workouts…those guys scare me.

Bernie…since you mentioned Landee…go back and read his Senior Bowl reports…he raved about Avery and was already taking late 1st back then..in January.

— Picklefork
2:15 am April 28th, 2008

That’s fine. You don’t like evaluating drafts until some future date. The problem with that is that three, four, and five years go by and hardly ANYONE does any detailed analysis of previous drafts. While Devaney doesn’t have a track record and it’s hard to compare him, we could still look and see how the Rams fared relative to the NFC West, at least. How many players from the ‘03 draft are still with the team? How many are starting? How many are impact players? I’d like to see more of that analysis after the draft has occurred.

— the_new_aj_arete
2:54 am April 28th, 2008

I sit here and watch the Rams screw up the draft year after year so I believe I have a right to get upset… The Rams admitted Dorsey was rated higher than Long on THEIR boards. Comments like that make me upset more than everyone second guessing our picks. If they are going to evaluate players then use it.

I know if Kiper was really that good he would be working for a team (assuming they pay as much as ESPN) but to be honest his assessment of Rams reaching and miss judging talent has been more accurate than the players actually working out.

Rams had a terrible YAC last year for one reason ALL WE RAN WERE CURLS. People were not upset about Bruce and Holt dodging contact. The problem with the YAC was that everytime they caught the ball they were running towards Bulger.

I’m sure Long is going to be a good player. He was a safe pick but on a team that won three contests we needed a game changer, like Dorsey.

— craigstemmermann
8:59 am April 28th, 2008

This team needs big play makers—not only to win–but to get fans interested again….Games not selling out–especially with less money floating around for all fans—should be a big concern for the RAMS organization. Dorsey had the ability to be a Warren Sapp type player and that sells. Making a deal for Philadelphia’s secondary player creates excitement. This team needs excitement and something to gets fans talking and interested.
Sorry—this draft did not do this. Taking Dorsey and trading a draft pick for a proven secondary player who –can make a difference— was the way to go… Bigger gamble–but a nickle ante is not going to get you to the $1000 table very quickly.
Vince

— brendcon
10:12 am April 28th, 2008

Charlie Casserly, a recent GM and NFL insider said “Every team I talked to had Devin Thomas as the highest rated WR in the draft.” Personally, I respect his opinion more than the Rams staff. It seems to me that they drafted Avery to be a complement to Bennett, rather than as a replacement for Bennett, whereas Thomas would’ve been drafted to replace Bennett. I have no faith in Bennett as a starter in this league.

Also, I think many were outraged that we were even in a position of need at WR. When Linehan came to this team we had Holt, Bruce, Curtis, Furrey, and McDonald on the squad. Now we only have Holt, which forced us to draft a WR high in the draft instead of being able to address other concerns. The same thing happened at DT last year because they let Pickett leave, and all of a sudden had to use a high pick on a need at DT. If we kept our talented players, we would have been able to draft the best available player the last two years instead of drafting purely for need.

— garrick57
11:01 am April 28th, 2008

A-freakin’-men.

These draft cards are the height of stupidity. Yesterday I was reading Peter King’s report card on the 1998 draft. He gave the Rams a D- for a draft that brought in Grant Wistrom, Leonard Little, Robert Holcombe and Az Hakim - the first 3 who became starters, and the fourth of whom contributed significantly from the 3rd wideout position. For the same year, in analyzing the Titans draft, King said “there’s not another starter in the bunch [besides Kevin Dyson]”. One of those “non-starters”, Benji Olsen, just retired after 10 years as a starter for the Titans.

On the flip side, I remember all of the accolades the Rams received for their 2001 draft with Damione Lewis, Adam Archuleta, and Ryan Pickett in the first round. How’d that work out again?

Basically, these guys no little, if anything more than the average fan.

— thirteen28
11:13 am April 28th, 2008

The draftniks do not take into account the style of offenses/defenses that teams play when grading their picks. Many of the supposedly higher rated receivers were more suited to West Coast style offenses who prefer bigger receivers with speed being less of an issue. The Rams, and in particular Al Saunders, like very fast receivers who can get downfield quickly for the deep routes. Height is less of an issue. So when the Rams draft a receiver who fits their mold, the draftniks don’t understand it. Malcolm Kelly, Limas Sweed et al may have been rated higher by Kiper, but I suspect they would not have fared as well in our offense as the quicker receivers.

As for drafting Long instead of Dorsey, Dorsey may have been higher on the Rams draft board but the difference was minimal. And Long fits a need much more than Dorsey. So when it comes down to that, Rams should take need instead of best player available. I have no problem with that pick either.

— md_french
12:53 pm April 28th, 2008

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Bernie Miklasz