Chris Duncan’s Loss of Power
Chris Duncan butchered a couple of balls in left field on Monday night in Colorado, and of course that led to a rush of virulent criticism of Duncan’s defense on Internet bulletin boards.
As usual, many are missing the point by obsessing over Duncan’s glove and flinging insults at him.
Duncan’s defense has always been below average.
Not as bad as some charge; last season he ranked 20th among regular MLB left fielders in revised zone rating, which made him below average (but not among the very worst) in getting to, and catching, the balls that he should get to and catch. (But Monday’s game in Denver was awful; I won’t try to defend that).
The Cardinals clearly were justified in carrying Duncan’s glove because of his bat. From the start of the 2006 season until around the All-Star break of 2007, Duncan had one of the best OBP + SLG numbers in the majors, especially against RH pitchers. (I’ll cite a couple stats: from opening day 2006 until the 2007 All-Star break, Duncan ranked fifth in the NL in slugging percentage and eighth in the NL in OPS against all pitching).So the Cardinals clearly were making a sensible trade-off by getting Duncan’s bat into the lineup even if it mean sacrificing some defense. Besides, it’s not exactly a novel approach to put a shaky glove in LF; historically managers have used the position as a preserve for their defensively challenged boppers.As long as Duncan hits for power, then there’s no reason to whine about his defense.But he’s no longer hitting for power.
And so critics should look at Duncan’s bat instead of his glove.
The bat is the story now.
Not the glove.
Last season Duncan began suffering from the effects of a sports-hernia injury. It deprived him of power. And the condition required significant surgery.
I don’t know what’s happened to Duncan’s power, but it is diminishing. Could it be that he’s still trying to rebuild and regenerate his strength in the aftermath of the hernia surgery? That seems plausible.
But here are some disturbing numbers on Duncan:
Since last July 22 and through May 5 of this season, Duncan had 189 at-bats.
And he’s homered only four times, or once every 47.25 at-bats. (He has two HRs this season in 74 ABs, but has continued to draw walks and keep his OBP up, so that’s a plus).
Duncan’s slugging percentage over the last 189 at-bats is .312. To put that SLG into perspective, consider that Aaron Miles has a .356 career slugging percentage, and Cesar Izturis has a career slugging percentage of .333. In other words, Duncan is slugging at a level less than what Miles and Izturis have during their careers. And that’s alarming. He’s also hitting the ball on the ground at a rate higher than any other time in his career; for some reason Chris is having a difficult time getting the ball into the air. Obviously that’s not beneficial for a power hitter.
Duncan was a tremendous slugger up until late July, 2007. In his first 550 big-league at-bats, Duncan hit 42 homers (one per every 13 at-bats), drove in 101 runs, and slugged .582.
Obviously, Dunc’s numbers have plummeted. Over these last 189 ABs his average is .206 with a .323 OBP and the .312 SLG. That’s bad.
I don’t say that to criticize him; I think Chris at times has been unfairly and prematurely maligned by some Cardinals fans who overstated his defensive struggles while ignoring his valuable offensive contributions.
But Duncan’s recent numbers are what they are, and his profile as a power hitter is in decline. And the Cardinals need to find out why. Is it hitting mechanics? A funky swing? Does he need a tune-up at Class AAA so he can find his power stroke? Or is this related to a loss of strength after the injury and surgery? Will the strength gradually return over time?
He’s a good Cardinal, and a team player, and he works hard. I feel bad for the guy. It doesn’t do Chris Duncan or the team, much good to allow this to go on, unchecked.
–B
“Chris Duncan butchered a couple of balls in left field on Monday night in Colorado, and of course that led to a rush of virulent criticism of Duncan’s defense on Internet bulletin boards.”
C’mon, Bernie! Virulent? Just because we don’t get paid for our opinion doesn’t mean we don’t have a right to our opinion. We can see that he isn’t playing well. Some went overboard in their criticism, but I don’t think anyone wants anything more than for Duncan to be great. As you say, the Cardinals need to find out why and not let it go unchecked, for the good of the team and Duncan. To keep sending him out, hoping he will suddenly improve isn’t the answer. Giving him a fair chance is only right, but that didn’t seem to matter with Reyes, did it?
Who cares what “internet bulletin board” losers say? You give them too much credit.
I’ve been talking about his hitting numbers for weeks as we’ve watched them decline. I think the problem is that many of us don’t understand why TLR keeps sending him out there when he has not improved one iota in the last few weeks and then the defense becomes spectacularly awful, as well. If he was the best OF choice, then so be it. But, he’s not. The Cards have better options right now that should be getting playing time while Duncan tries to recover his power stroke in AAA or visits the doctor or whatever. By the way, he probably needs to do some core work to rebuild the abdominal wall muscles after surgery. Anyway, can you explain why he keeps getting oodles of playing time when he’s playing so poorly, Bernie?
Reyes never had the sustained run of success that Duncan did at the big-league level. That’s the difference.
Ok Bernie. Since you won’t mention it I will. I’m absolutely positive you have milled over the thought of performance enhancing drugs or lack thereof being a possibility in the power decline. I know it would be hard for you to put in print since you have personal relationships with Dunc and Dunc and won’t speculate.
With the crackdown and destruction of careers for using, could it be possible Dunc was at some point juicing for power but has found the risk to great to continue? I’m just throwing it out there as a possibility.
You can’t be serious. Dave Duncan has gotten mad at me plenty of times. Pissing off the people I write about is the least of my concerns, so you’re way off base.
No. 2 … you are aware that Chris Duncan broke into the big leagues AFTER THE PERFORMANCE-ENHANCING DRUG policies went into place, right?
Please try to do better next time. Thank you.
Bernie,
Since the Cardinals organization (field to front office) are like Sergant Schulz (Hogan’s Heros) when it comes to responding to these types of questions and we are in the ‘Show Me’ state, how do you expect the members of the Cardinal Nation to respond? We want answers and since we rarely ever get them from the Cardinals, so we complain and belly ache like school children.
Questions I have:
1. Is Duncan all the way healed from surgery?
2. What was it in his spring training performance that made them bring him up and leave others down at AAA and AA?
3. How many more times are they going to trot him out there for lovely 2+ error and 0-4 evenings?
4. Do you think Cards management watch the same games as we the fans do? That guy is lost out there, and I have to watch through the small space between my fingers when a ball is hit to him. Jack Hannah should cover him on one of his wild adventure shows. I am still upset about the loss he served us by missing a ball he should have caught in Pittsburgh (that became a homer). The guy is 6′6″ and the wall is like 5′6″ he is paid to make those catches.
Well I have more, but I figure I am just rambling now, but there is no need to talk down to us fans just because we are venting our frustrations. Your opinions are more accurate and loaded with support and statistics, as they should be, after all that is your job. We are mere fans with little time or access to resources, but that does not mean we should stifle our opinions and not scream when we are upset, no matter how unfounded our thoughts and ideas are.
Cheers!
I don’t talk down to fans who express frustration. My issue is with unreasonable people who immediately start trashing a player instead of looking at an issue from all sides and then have an informed discussion on the issue. Thanks for your comments, which were great. Appreciate that.
Going into this year, if I remember correctly, Bernie wrote an article on Duncan and how much he could potentially mean for this young ball club. Duncan had been in the majors longer than the Ankiels, Schumakers and Ludwigs of the world. Not counting that experience alone, he was a producer at the major league level.
Duncan’s decline in slugging has been alarming to say the least. I would be curious to see how power hitters have reacted in the past to this type of surgery (alas, my crack resource department is a one-man band and I work for a living). Surely he can’t be the only power hitter to have undergone an abdominal surgery. Bernie - being a numbers guy I would assume you’ve looked into this?
When productive, Duncan is arguably one of the best sluggers on the team (even moreso than Glaus). He should have been (should be?) this teams protection for Pujols. If the guy can return to his past numbers this offense can be very dangerous (although he has never made it through a full season). It would allow La Russa flexibility to hit Glaus 5th/6th and bounce Ankiel around in the lineup to create more damage. Hopefully he can revive his bat sometime this year. Can you imagine this Cardinal lineup with another 30+ homerun (potential) guy? That is exactly what the Cardinals would love to get in a trade - it is exactly what they’ve been missing.
I think most fans are excited to see a fresh crop of outfielders starting and making such a tremendous contribution to the team’s success. I also think they have been patiently pulling for Duncan to return to form in the hitting department even if it has meant putting a defensive liability in the field. As he has continued to fail to produce runs (his last RBI was on April 18), I think patience has worn thin for some folks. He hasn’t done anything noticeably positive for some time, which just magnifies negatives like his errors. By contrast, someone like Ankiel has shown recently that even if he struggles at the plate, he can make some solid if not stellar contributions in the field (last night’s Tomahawk missile strikes, for example).
I don’t want to diminish Duncan’s past contributions and potential for the future, but the tone of this season is that everyone plays for their position every day, and the top contributors earn more playing time. Despite our early success and amazing record, 2008 is still a year of adjustments and development, which means we don’t have the luxury of just anointing Duncan as the starting LF for years to come. We’ve seen Ankiel, Ludwick, and Schumaker blossom now that the depth chart has been cleared of high-priced veterans, and while Duncan’s past history with the team might earn him some credibility, this is not the year to entitle him to AB’s and playing time. That’s not to say that any of those three will prove to be the best long-term option, either.
If Duncan has a physical issue, DL him until he’s right (didn’t he have a hamstring issue recently?), but he may just have some holes in his swing that pitchers are able to exploit now. I’m pulling for the guy because he’s a Cardinal, but the success of the team comes first, especially as we use this year to allow talented, but less experienced players, to build some playing time and confidence, especially when they’re contributing.