Chris Duncan’s Loss of Power
Chris Duncan butchered a couple of balls in left field on Monday night in Colorado, and of course that led to a rush of virulent criticism of Duncan’s defense on Internet bulletin boards.
As usual, many are missing the point by obsessing over Duncan’s glove and flinging insults at him.
Duncan’s defense has always been below average.
Not as bad as some charge; last season he ranked 20th among regular MLB left fielders in revised zone rating, which made him below average (but not among the very worst) in getting to, and catching, the balls that he should get to and catch. (But Monday’s game in Denver was awful; I won’t try to defend that).
The Cardinals clearly were justified in carrying Duncan’s glove because of his bat. From the start of the 2006 season until around the All-Star break of 2007, Duncan had one of the best OBP + SLG numbers in the majors, especially against RH pitchers. (I’ll cite a couple stats: from opening day 2006 until the 2007 All-Star break, Duncan ranked fifth in the NL in slugging percentage and eighth in the NL in OPS against all pitching).So the Cardinals clearly were making a sensible trade-off by getting Duncan’s bat into the lineup even if it mean sacrificing some defense. Besides, it’s not exactly a novel approach to put a shaky glove in LF; historically managers have used the position as a preserve for their defensively challenged boppers.As long as Duncan hits for power, then there’s no reason to whine about his defense.But he’s no longer hitting for power.
And so critics should look at Duncan’s bat instead of his glove.
The bat is the story now.
Not the glove.
Last season Duncan began suffering from the effects of a sports-hernia injury. It deprived him of power. And the condition required significant surgery.
I don’t know what’s happened to Duncan’s power, but it is diminishing. Could it be that he’s still trying to rebuild and regenerate his strength in the aftermath of the hernia surgery? That seems plausible.
But here are some disturbing numbers on Duncan:
Since last July 22 and through May 5 of this season, Duncan had 189 at-bats.
And he’s homered only four times, or once every 47.25 at-bats. (He has two HRs this season in 74 ABs, but has continued to draw walks and keep his OBP up, so that’s a plus).
Duncan’s slugging percentage over the last 189 at-bats is .312. To put that SLG into perspective, consider that Aaron Miles has a .356 career slugging percentage, and Cesar Izturis has a career slugging percentage of .333. In other words, Duncan is slugging at a level less than what Miles and Izturis have during their careers. And that’s alarming. He’s also hitting the ball on the ground at a rate higher than any other time in his career; for some reason Chris is having a difficult time getting the ball into the air. Obviously that’s not beneficial for a power hitter.
Duncan was a tremendous slugger up until late July, 2007. In his first 550 big-league at-bats, Duncan hit 42 homers (one per every 13 at-bats), drove in 101 runs, and slugged .582.
Obviously, Dunc’s numbers have plummeted. Over these last 189 ABs his average is .206 with a .323 OBP and the .312 SLG. That’s bad.
I don’t say that to criticize him; I think Chris at times has been unfairly and prematurely maligned by some Cardinals fans who overstated his defensive struggles while ignoring his valuable offensive contributions.
But Duncan’s recent numbers are what they are, and his profile as a power hitter is in decline. And the Cardinals need to find out why. Is it hitting mechanics? A funky swing? Does he need a tune-up at Class AAA so he can find his power stroke? Or is this related to a loss of strength after the injury and surgery? Will the strength gradually return over time?
He’s a good Cardinal, and a team player, and he works hard. I feel bad for the guy. It doesn’t do Chris Duncan or the team, much good to allow this to go on, unchecked.
–B
Bern,I disagree with Cards fans “overstating” his field problems. All hitters have slumps. On defense,however, he has struggled since he began play in the outfield with the Cards.Duncan needs to go! We’ve got to many outfielders already.
Most importantly he has taken away PT from Brian Barton. Barton is a true outfielder with a brighter future than Duncan. Duncan has had his chance(s) to improve…for get about him and move on.
If Cardinal nation wants to get rid of Chris well maybe that isn’t a bad idea. There is one thing that the Nation has forgoten though, he has no trade value if he isn’t hitting so it would be a good idea if Chris was hitting. I bet if and when he starts to tear the cover off the ball again the people who are complaining about his bad defense and lack of hitting become silent.
I say send the man to triple A Memphis get him some at bats, let him build some confidence. I think we would all agree that baseball can be a mental strain at times and confidence means a lot when you are up at bat. Give the man a chance he deserves that.
Hey Bernie, I did no homework on the matter but what would be the difference between Duncan and Jason Bay. I often here about a trade for him. I think Bay was a one hit wonder myself.