If You Dislike Chris Duncan, Do Not Read This
Good evening…
Chris Duncan is the worst left fielder in the history of mankind, right? That seems to be the prevailing opinion, at least if you read some of the squawking messages on the STLtoday.com forums. (And you should see some of my e-mails on Duncan; you’d think he was personally responsible for high gas prices.)
There’s no defending Duncan’s awkward style; he’s kind of scary out there. Put it this way: I don’t think he’d fare well on ABC’s “Dancing With the Stars.”
The smoothness factor aside, let’s get to the bottom line drive:
Does Duncan pretty much catch the fly balls that he should catch?
The answer is an emphatic YES.
According to Fielding Bible stats logged on the Bill James web site, billjamesonline.net, Duncan has actually been a plus fielder this season based on his ability to get to fly balls.
According to the John Dewan - Bill James plus-minus system — with the scores filed after video review — Duncan has actually caught more balls than he should have gotten to so far this season.
According to James-Dewan, 52 fly balls have been hit into Duncan’s catchable area. But he’s actually gotten to the ball, and made the grab, 53 times. Which means he tracked down a ball hit out of his zone. Duncan is a plus 1 in the ratings, which places him 9th among MLB left fielders…. that’s right: I said 9th.
However, Duncan’s throwing is a problem. James-Dewan determine that 10 of 19 runners have taken an extra base on Duncan so far this season, a high rate that leaves him near the bottom (31st) of the throwing ratings.
OK, what about another sabermetric system, the Revised Zone Rating? How does Duncan come out there? Very well, actually. In the RZR fielding data that can be found at hardballtimes.com, Duncan has caught 44 of the 47 fly balls that he should have gotten to. That score isn’t as good as his marks in the Dewan-James system, but the RZR of .936 would place Duncan among the top five NL left fielders if he had enough chances to qualify.
Hey, Dunc haters … I tried to warn you not to read this. I didn’t want to irritate anyone.
(Well, maybe a little).
But clumsy appearance aside, Duncan is doing what he’s supposed to do by snaring the catchable fly balls hit in his zone.
-B
Yeah Duncan is okay in the same way Cal Ripken was an okay shotstop. He had good fielding stats because he had limited range seldom tried to make spectacular stops or throws.
Bernie,
Gotta love the comments. You run the numbers, and most of the posters still ignore them. Yes, he looks awkward–but as the two systems show, the balls he should have caught he’s caught. But some people focus on Game 5 of the WS or the game in Colorado where he allowed two extra bases (not hits, just two extra bases) that cost the Cards ONE run in a game they won.
At the Hardball Times, he’s got the best RZR of any of the 5 Cards that have played LF this season.
As to the best OF being Schu/Ankiel/Ludwick, no the best OF is Duncan/Ankiel/Ludwick (as long as Ludwick is killing the ball as he has). Duncan has a better OBP that Schu, has a better SLG (with a lot more upside). If you are going to use stats, then why should Schu play ahead of Duncan? (all of this assumes a RHP starting; Duncan has been dismal against LHP during his career).
Keep up the stats work, Bernie.
Dave
Duncan doesn’t fit into the Cardinals plans for the next few years. We have a bunch of talented outfielders already in the bigs and Rasmus and Mather in the minors.Duncan may be succesfull somewhere where he can play his natural position..first base.The outfield that gives the Birds the best shot at wining is Lud/Ank/Schu/. I agree with an earlier comment.Why was Dunc not in the outfield in AAA and AA?No one was moving Albert and Duncan appeared to have a good enough bat to make it in the majors.Part of his power outage may have to do with him receiving a limited number of at bats. Trade Dunc and clear roster space for “Mighty Joe” Mather.
Albert is such an absoulute professional. I love the way he handled the Chris Young situation.Albert is the best hitter in the game,yet he respects everyone around him. I hope Young has a quick recovery and that Albert can somehow shake off this terrible situation.
These are the facts. Chris Duncan will be a premier home run hitter. But, he is at the wrong position to showcase his talents. He really should be playing as a first baseman. But,that will never happen with Albert Pujols at first base. I am not saying that he needs to replace Albert. That would be a extremely bad move. The bottom line is Chris Duncan needs to traded to another ballclub where he will be able to develop his talents and become a team leader.
Sydney,
Maybe we tend to focus on the negatives of Chris Duncan’s defense more than the positives, but the simple fact that his RZR shows him as the best of the five outfielders who have played leftfield for the Cardinals should be a shining example of why these defensive metrics are still very questionable.
I don’t think he’s nearly as bad as some in the outfield, but if you watch the games each night, there is simply no way that you can conclude that he is a better fielder than Ludwick, Schumaker or Ankiel. Barton, I’ll grant you.
Bernie, I’ll agree with the fact that Duncan has improved in the outfield this year. However, it’s pretty hard not to do so, considering the 2006 playoffs and his outfield beginnings.
There is something those statistics you used neglect to indicate. HOW does Duncan get to those fly balls? He does not get to them smoothly and in position to make good throws to the infield. There is no way teams are as worried about running on Duncan as they are Schumaker, Ankiel, or even Ludwig. Duncan is still a minus in the outfield.
And for a guy that’s a minus in the outfield, Duncan is more often than not a liability at the plate. He hasn’t adapted to big league pitching over the last year like they have adapted to him. If he isn’t putting up big offensive numbers, there’s no reason to bench Ankiel, Schumaker, Ludwig, or even Barton to start Duncan.
Bernie, I dont get it. I understand the dad thing, but this is the worse outfielder in baseball. If not for him and Izzy we could have almost put this division away, dispite what the cubs are doing. Dunc has got to go. The experiment is over. GET HIM OUTTA HERE!!!!! He’s totally useless.
I don’t care what the sabermetric stats say, Bernie. This is a clear case where he really is as bad as he looks. How many times will his errors or misplays come at critical times in the ballgame?
His bat simply doesn’t justify his defensive liability. I’m with most other fans - either send him down to the farm or sell him to the first bidder.
Lastly Bernie, can you actually tell us, without stats, that you believe he should start ahead of any of our other qualified outfielders on any given day? I’d like to hear some journalistic expression of exactly why you think he should, minus the bs stats.
There are three leagues in which Duncan’s defense qualifies him to play: American, International and Pacific Coast.
The manager that would place him in the field in a tie game is no genius.
In baseball, in a late-game pressure situation, the ball always manages to find a team’s weakest fielder. It’s found (almost, not enough for him to catch it) Duncan at least twice, and it has cost the Cardinals two games.
Remember those days during the stretch drive in September.
As I stated before, Duncan always seems to take the wrong approach when it comes to fielding a ball. He was one the of the reasons the Cards lost to LA on Sunday, by misplaying a simple flyball, it led to the winning run. He kind of reminds me of Pete Rose as a fielder, at best an average arm, no range or speed to cover his position, whther Rose was in the infield or outfield. STL please rid yourself of this cancer.