Notes on a Scorecard: Dunc Strikes Back!
Good evening from Busch Stadium…
Bottom of the first, two out, bases loaded, 0-2 count on Chris Duncan. Roy Oswalt looks to finish it off. Duncan works the count to 3-2, then fouls off a 95 mph fastball to stay upright. Next pitch, 94 mph. Duncan blisters it to right for a 2-run single. It was a terrific at-bat, and got the Cardinals started on their 3-2 victory over the Astros.
Manager Tony La Russa called Duncan “a champion” after the game, and as Dunc’s most prominent supporter, Tony was understandably proud.
Duncan went 1 for 3 in the game, and he’s 2 for his last 14, but this was the kind of at-bats people have wanted to see from him. And if Duncan can deliver them more consistently, there’s no issue here. Nothing to talk about. We’ll move along. But if Dunc has this great AB, followed by a bunch of bad swings and outs and a rut, then the issue of his offensive viability will remain. I hope he gets it going now, because I respect him, and I respect his parents, and he works hard.
What’s funny about all of this is how I’m being depicted as some anti-Duncan attack dog. Anyone who has sparred with me online (Bernie’s Press Box, or on this blog) knows that I often go against the prevailing public sentiment when it comes to Duncan. I’ve frequently defended him when I believe he’s been unfairly maligned. And what’s also funny is that in 2006 I wrote a column that La Russa really disliked, a column that questioned how Chris Duncan could be expected to build confidence when TLR pulled him late for a pinch-hitter when the Cubs brought in a LH reliever. It’s interesting how all of that works, isn’t it?
But really, this situation is crystal clear: Chris D hits, or he doesn’t hit. And if he doesn’t hit, then the Cardinals will have to do what’s best for him.
Keith Hernandez was sent back to the minors to improve. I watched Brian Jordan get sent back to the minors two or three times before his career took off. Brooks Robinson, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle… quite a few future Hall of Famers were sent back to the minors to work on their flaws. There’s no shame in that. It’s done all the time. It’s often productive. So am I really supposed to believe that it’s somehow blasphemous to suggest that there’s a benefit for young Dunc to visit Memphis for a spell? Please. He’d be in the lineup every day, and really work on his hitting approach and mechanics without a lot of fuss being made.
Now, if Duncan has more ABs like the one we saw against Roy O in the first inning Thursday, then it’s a moot point.
But understand this: Dunc has to keep doing it.
Because if he doesn’t continue to do it, it doesn’t matter how many times Manager La Russa or Dave Duncan or the typical STL media lapdogs try to protect the young Dunc. It doesn’t matter how many times La Russa and others want to shift the Duncan story and make it all about the independent-minded members of the media. It doesn’t matter if they all try to pretend that Dunc’s batting line in 259 plate appearances since last July 29 — a .215 average, .320 OBP and .323 SLG — is some sort of bizarre media/fan fabrication.
Let’s reduce this to the truth at its leanest core, shall we?
Duncan hits.
Or he doesn’t hit.
If he hits, he belongs.
He doesn’t hit, then we’ll see if the adults at Busch Stadium have it in them to act responsibly.
This isn’t about Duncan vs. the media, or Tony vs. the media, or Dave vs. the media.
It’s about Chris Duncan vs. the Pitcher. Nothing more.
That was a great AB vs. Oswalt.
What will it lead to?
– There was so much chest pounding over Duncan after the game, that I almost forgot the real reason the Cardinals won Thursday’s game (and Wednesday’s) to take the series 2-1 from that hot-hot-hot Houston team. The No. 1 reason, of course, was pitching. The Cardinals received awesome starts from Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse and superb work from the bullpen, and over the final two games, both Ws, the Astros scored three runs (total) in 18 innings. This was a Houston team that had averaged 5.4 runs per game over the first 24 games in May. And the Cardinals shut ‘em down. That’s really difficult to do, considering the thunder consistently produced by Tejada, Berkman, Lee, Pence, and the other Astromen.
- Lohse is an interesting case. He’s allowed only four earned runs in his five wins (over 30.1 IP). He seemed really lost through the first three weeks of May, but now has stepped forward again with consecutive strong starts against the Dodgers and Astros. Lohse is hugely important to this team, and this season. If Lohse pitches at a high level, as he has multiple times this season, he elevates the Cardinals’ rotation and gives them three quality starters (with Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer being the other two). But if Lohse is bad, the Cardinals’ rotation sure looks a lot worse, doesn’t it? I don’t know what to expect from Lohsie, but as the second month winds down, he’s standing there at 5-2 with a 4.02 ERA, and the Cardinals will take a repeat of that two more times.
- I was curious as to the Cardinals’ won/loss record when their five outfielders play. It probably doesn’t mean much, but it’s something to talk about.
Schumaker 31-22
Ludwick 28-19
Ankiel 28-19
Barton 23-19
Duncan 25-22
- This is a typical La Russa team in that it’s grimly determined to press on. It’s one of their greatest strengths. Five times this season, the Cardinals have lost the first game of a three-game series at home, only to take the final two games and snatch the series 2-1. Overall, they are 6-2-2 in taking series after losing the opener. That’s impressive.
- Troy Glaus at home: .236 / .314 / .368
- Troy Glaus on road: .295 / .439 / .410
- The Cardinals need someone to cool the Cubs down. The Cubs have been beating up just about everybody at Wrigley Field, where they’re 23-8 this season. (On eight series on the road, the Cubs are 1-6-1). With Thursday’s win at home over Colorado, the Cubs ascended to the best record in the MLB. But the plucky Cardinals are still only 1.5 games back.
- Next up, four at home vs. the Pirates, who are 10-17 on the road so far.
- Nickname alert: I’m gonna call Chris Perez “CPR” because the other team needs it after inhaling that 98 mph heat. CPR fits, of course. Chris Perez, Reliever.
Thanks for reading …
-B
Nice column, Bernie, as per usual. However…
I don’t remember Mays going back to the minors, though - he went into the Army a month or so into his sophomore season instead.
And Mantle, of course, was sent down mainly because of his defense - he was an awful shortstop - which was affecting his hitting. Once they made him an outfielder, he was fine.
And none of these guys were sent down in their 3rd or 4th seasons like we’re proposing to do with Duncan. One guy who *was*, though, was Joe Garagiola, who was a rookie in 1946 and had a decent sophomore season in 1947, but struggled badly in early 1948 and was sent down - and he responded by hitting .354 or thereabouts, got called back up, and was on the road to stardom (hitting .313 and driving in runs in the early part of 1950) before suffering a season-ending and career-altering injury.
So the precedent is there for even a third-year player to go down, although you don’t see it happen very often nowadays - players’ union and all that.
Have you heard anything about the Mather rumors? There’s rumblings from Memphis that Joey Bombs is coming up this weekend.
dunc will never be a consistent nl OF. carlos lee is a similar bumbler LF, but the stick is a lot mightier than cd’s. can jm trade dunc, bt, and ar for a proven pitcher and start thinking of mather, sooner rather than later. realize they (cd, bt and ar) are all at ebb tide right now, but they will never prosper as cardinals
also, hand the ball in the 9th inning to crp and quit messing around with rf and ji. you gotta know when to fold ‘em, tlr
Bernie — Duncan’s stats from last year are irrelevent. Everyone knows that he played hurt. Right now he’s batting .252 for THIS season (after the surgery) and there are 49 major leaguers with qualifying numbers currently batting less than that (Ken Griffy, David Ortiz and Jeff Kent to name a few). You send poeple to the minors for batting .185, not .252. How about Adam Kennedy, who’s only batting .244?
I don’t live in St.L (anymore) so I don’t hear the talk shows (although I watch all the games on the dish and listen on XM) but I can’t believe it’s gotten to this point with Duncan bashing. Overall I agree with B’s comments that he might need some work in the minors, which would also give us a look at Mather but the constant defensive bashing is ridiculous. He’s still better than Soriano and doesn’t strain his calf jogging. I had single hernia surgery 10 years ago and let me tell you, that injury takes a long to time to feel pain free and I believe Dunc had double so I’m sure he’s messed up his swing a bit to compensate. I still squat differently to tie my shoes ever since my surgery. Bottom line, TLR summed it up best Thurs. night by saying he’s “hard enough on himself”, so lets give him a break and appreciate him for what he is. When healthy, a very good hitter forced to play a new position…but best of all he’s still a great bargain in terms of salary.
If I remember correctly, Willie McGee was also sent back down to the minors in his 2nd or 3rd year.
Bernie,
You know I’m not among those in this forum that send bouquets your way on a daily basis. I’m generally curmudgeonly, and for that reason I don’t get the cult of adulation you seem to inspire among many who post here. Nevertheless, props to you for putting yourself in position to receive it.
The above was a great, well-written “morning after” piece for the column you wrote and the game that followed. I remember you wanting to see more of Chris Duncan when he was ripping the cover off the ball in 2006 and early 2007, and I agreed with you.
Major league sports, especially now because of the high cost of everything related to it, is a “what have you done for me lately” business where current performance is the only meaningful metric. If Duncan hits consistently and with power as he once did, few will care about his subpar defense (unless Tony keeps leaving him in game situations where similar players like Greg Luzinski and Lonnie Smith were routinely pulled by their managers) and what his father does for a living.
As long as Duncan fails to deliver at the plate, the questions will continue. That is to be expected, and is not the least bit unreasonable.
Given that Duncan’s skill set is better suited for first base and DH, and that the Cardinals have a potential Hall of Famer at first base play in the National League where there is no DH, it will be interesting what happens if Duncan regains the hitting form he displayed in 2006 and early 2007. With the mid career OF’s the Cardinals now have (Ankiel and Ludwick) and youngsters Mather and Rasmus close to the major leagues, who will stay, who will go, and who will sit?
It’s the nature of fans to second guess and part of the job of columnists to encourage it. Thanks for writing . . .
Good point. Recovering from double hernia surgery isn’t easy and people may be forgetting that. The guy’s trying really hard, and yesterday he proved he belongs. Obviously he has to continue to perform, but in my opinion, fans need to give him a little break.
As mentioned, there are people on the team with lower BA than Dunc.
Lets just hope he can continue to contribute positively!
Bernie,
In most cases I make very it well known here in southern missouri that I would find something from one of your articles that would just set me off and then sit down and watch the post game interview with Tony only in hopes of him ripping into your butt. However I believe that TLR was a little hard on you this time. Now mind you I understand what TLR is doing and that is protecting one of his own. I can see both sides of the story however, your point(s) where made with the whole thing with Dunc. I as many feel sick when the lineups are made and one of the hottest guys in baseball is sitting in the corner of the dugout (as you so stated in your article) not being a factor in a key series. I have been a Duncan fan since day one and I think his story is great, however I compare his ordeal to Reyes. Reyes struggled he got sent down and rightfully so, Duncan struggles he stays up. Why? You have speculated the reasoning, so have many of us. He has to get at bats, but at whos cost does these AB come? Recently it has been Ludwick, one of the hottest things going. Ryan has started to come back to earth so to say as of late, but nothing in the likes of Duncans struggles. Honestly I feel that we could probably use him in a trade but is this something that will happen? Most likely not. I have the same thought process as most the reason why he would not be traded, the same reasoning as to why he has not been sent down for work. TLR is a bad spot, he is probably one of the most loyal managers in the game of baseball especially to players that he has a great deal of respect for. However there will come a point in time where this issue will have to be addressed, I would think dealing with it now would be better as to wait a few years down the line. Honestly is he going to be a everyday outfield for us in years to come? I would say not. He has improved leaps and bounds with his defense, still like most I have huge pucker factor everytime one is hit his way. I wish nothing but the best for Dunc, I beleive that honestly his time should be coming to a end in the STL.
I am a fan of Duncan. However, I don’t see how he can continue to be used frequently in light of the numbers Schumaker and Ludwick are putting up. To me, it is not so much a question of whether Duncan is deserving of at bats, but rather how do you justify taking at bats away from the other two.
Jerry Modene, thanks for setting me straight on Mays… I appreciate that.
-B
If one wanted to defend Duncan based on his stats this season, they wouldn’t cite his BA, which is pretty meaningless considering that he does draw walks, and he does have a respectable OBP of .356. That’s what you should dwell on, his OBP. Not his batting average.
Also, if one wanted to defend Duncan a good tact would be to compare his numbers to Glaus; Dunc has a higher OPB and about the same slugging percentage. Of course, the problem there is, the Cardinals have plenty of better options in the OF, including two guys in Memphis. But they have to go with Glaus at 3B. And Glaus plays plus defense, and he’s done OK with runners in scoring position.
I’m just trying to help you make a better and more relevant case…
But the real issue here is slugging; that’s why Dunc was brought to the majors, and that was his No. 1 atttibute when he was going well. His slugging percentage is .386 for the season. Against RHP, his slugging percentage ranks fourth among STL outfielders, and is 62nd overall in the NL. Against all pitching, Dunc’s slugging percentage is 86th in the NL.
Let’s take a look:
Duncan, slugging vs. all pitchers
2006: .589, 7th in the NL
2007: .480, 49th in the NL
2008: .386, 86th in the NL
Duncan, slugging vs. RHP
2006: .644, 6th in the NL
2007: .525, 25th in the NL
2008: .422, 62nd in the NL
I believe the trend is pretty obvious — at least for those who are willing to see it.
-B
There you go again Bernie, using facts and statistics to make your point.
The blind loyalists are not going to like that.
Duncan certainly has potential to hit thirty or more HR’s. A trade would be best for both the Birds and Dunc. If Dunc was traded he might be able to play first base where he is comfortable , and he could become an everyday player. Someone in the outfield right now will have to go when Ras and Mighty Joe are ready to come up.
With Duncan it was just one game! Lets see him string together consistently good at bats. I’m not ready to go crazy about a guy who worked the count ,and came through for the first time in a long time.
Love the nickname for Perez,Bernie,. Keep up the good work,Bern….
Bernie,
Not sure the records in games played is that meaningful; probably somewhat more meaningful is the record in games started. Courtesy of bbref.com, here are those numbers:
Ankiel 26-17
Schu 23-17
Ludwick 18-14
Duncan 19-14
Barton 10-8
Duncan’s record as an OF is actually 19-12 because he has started twice at 1B for Albert, and the Cards lost both games.
So, for the record, Duncan is
19-12 as a LF
0-2 as a 1B
6-8 as a PH/replacement
while Ludwick is
18-14 as an OF
10-5 as a PH/replacement
Duncan, per Strauss, is going to AAA so I hope he finds his power stroke there, because the Cards need him to hit.
If Duncan finds his stroke, and Mather hits in the bigs, then Skip is probably the man on the bubble down the road.
Dave
Bernie,
No problem.
Udamann -
Nice catch on McGee. I had forgotten about that one; it happened in mid-1983, and I can now remember the headline: “World Series hero sent to minors”.
Still, it was only Willie’s sophomore season when it happened, not his third like it is now with Duncan and his send-down today.
BTW, does anybody remember when the Braves tried to send Bob Horner to the minors in 1979? He was hitting poorly in *his* sophomore season and the Braves tried to send him down and his agent - I don’t remember who it was, but it wasn’t Boras, who wasn’t in the business yet - filed some sort of grievance and the Braves were forced to keep Horner in the majors.
I just saw where Mather was called up. Maybe Dunc can raise his stock and become trade bait for the Cardinals. I think Dunc can become a team leader somewhere other than St.Louis. There is no question about it…Dunc can flat out pound the ball out of the park.
This is a great opportunity for Barton to step up and show why some day he might be a star.This move also should give Ludwcik a chance to play everyday. For some reason TLR kept playing Dunc,instead of Ludwick,to try and heat up Dunc’s bat. Great move by Mo and the front office!
Thanks, Bernie for laying it on the line. You love the team. You love the players. But in the end, it’s a matter of performance. I ache when Dunc strugles and celebrate when he succeeds. Always, I long to celebrate, even if it’s only for a day.
One of the batch of numbers from above indicates a decline in his (was it) slugging over and into his third season. That’s an indication that the league is adjusting to him. That’s what athletic games are about; what any game is about. You experience the play and react to it.
Participating in transitional games like hockey, basketball and soccer, you need to make adjustments quickly and continuously. In baseball, and over all the participants (the teams), the adjustments takes a while, but eventually everyone gets caught up to it as it seems to have for Chris. It does bear down on the good hitter with everyone working against him to figure out what to do about his hitting, and in may instances it can drive the hitter out of the game. Bo Hart comes to mind.
I perceive it as something similar to a chess match; but it’s the hitter against the league. And the league can figure it out to bring all of the coaching and planning to prepare the opposing pitcher. So, except for those special instances where exceptional talent is continuoulsy being honed; Advantage: League.
The difference makers are the ones that adjust back. And that’s done by identifying weaknesses, acknowledging them, and then working on the adjustments that capitalize on turning those weaknesses into an additional strength. Those that do it quickly will just as quickly find more opportunities to expolit their new-found strengths.
So, for Mr. Duncan…? I can’t wait for him to make ‘em pay in the minors and then come back to start tearing up major league pitching.
I am a Chris Duncan fan and wish him the best while he is down in Memphis. His big hit in yesterdays game after taking a lot of heat about his play recently, speaks volumes about his mental makeup. I do not believe he will be down long, unless Mather really tears it up during this time of opportunity with the big club and even then someone else may be sent out or traded. Once the Cards have gone through the gauntlet of LH pitching that they are about to see, Duncan will probably be back. My question is; what is the Cardinal brass going to do with all these quality outfeilders? Like flowers in the spring, they all seem to be blooming at once. Mather should be well pleasing to TLR since he can play “D” at five positions. Colby needs to get focused on his game and that game that he can play will take care of his leap to the big club. Colby may be going through a mental aspect of competition that he did not reckon on. I’m sure he’ll get it figured out. It’s good to know we fans can depend on Bernie to give us food for thought as well as the facts. Bernie helps all of us be better informed Cardinal fans. Yep, I am a Bernie fan to. Thanks Bernie!