The Pressure is on the Cub$
Hello again…
Friday night marks the renewal of the funtastic Cubs-Cardinals rivalry, as the teams will play three at Busch Stadium.
And this one is easy to frame: all the pressure in the world is on the Cubs. The Cardinals have nothing to lose. According to the national baseball punditry, the Cardinals were supposed to be an also-ran this season, far up the track, and a hideous representation of a MLB team. They were buried under 4th place, 5th place, predictions. Even that august publication, the Chicago Tribune, marked the Cardinals down for a 69-93 season.
Instead, the Cardinals won 18 games in April and emerged as a first-month surprise with their refurbished, budget-conscious roster. Sure, the Cardinals have much to prove, and they’ll be facing better competition and a more difficult schedule. The test of 162 games exposes all weaknesses.
But so what? The Cardinals, who dominated the NL Central for so long, have switched roles and can delightfully play the role of pest, nuisance, spunky underdogs. The Cardinals used to spend the most money in the division, but that’s changed as the team undergoes a minor rebuilding, with an emphasis on younger, ascending players.
The Cub$, meanwhile, have been on a spending frenzy for the last two years, trying to become the NY Yankees of the National League as they handed out around $500 million in free-agent deals or contract extensions in an effort to win big, and as soon as possible.
(Sidebar: For some reason Cubs fans get irritated when the team’s profligate spending is mentioned, or when their Cubbies are praised for being a very good team, which I am doing in this entry. I can’t figure it out, unless of course, the theories have merit: do most Cubs fans prefer to play the role of long-suffering victims? Honest, I’ve never encountered a team’s fan base that gets insulted when you tell them they have a terrific ballclub, one that should win. It’s truly bizarre. I’ll leave the interpretation to the psychologists.)
The latest Cub$ purchase was the splendid Japanese outfielder, Fukudome, who signed for 4 years, $48 million over the winter. That contract went into the top-dollar file along with the previous deals for Alfonso Soriano ($136 million), Carlos Zambrano ($91.5 million), Aramis Ramirez ($75 million), Derrek Lee ($65 million), Ted Lilly ($40 million), Jason Marquis ($21 million) and Mark DeRosa ($13 million).
Hey, but at least the Cardinals countered with Cesar Izturis…
The Cubs have a helluva team. They’ve spruced up their one weakness, a lack of plate discipline. They’re drawing walks, getting on base, setting up a feast of RBI opportunities for the big fellas. The Cubs head into the weekend with a one-point lead (.375) over the Cardinals for the best onbase percentage in the NL. The lineup is loaded with OBP machines, including Lee (.431), Ramirez (.406), Fukudome (.455), Geovany Soto (.421), DeRosa (.405), Ryan Theriot (.409) and Ronny Cedeno (.462.)
Soriano has just returned from the DL — and oddly enough, his free-swinging ways may actually have a nominal negative impact on a lineup that’s been taking a lot of intelligent at-bats. He had a mediocre OBP of .337 at the top of the lineup card last season, and so far this season has an abysmal batting line of .164 / .215 / .279 in 61 at-bats. Will that remain at the top o’ the lineup?
The power/RBI men abound. The Cubs already have four guys with 20 or more RBIs (Lee, Ramirez, De Rosa and Soto, the impressive young catcher). And despite the holes in his swing, Soriano is good for 30+ homers this season. The Cubs (.453, second in the NL) hold the slugging advantage over the Cardinals (seventh at .415).
The Cubs rotation isn’t in gear yet, with Lilly and Marquis off to sluggish starts. But Zambrano and Ryan Dempster are a combined 8-1, and lefty Rich Hill is pitching well enough. The bullpen is the big question, especially at the end of games. There have been too many loose moments, with six blown saves in 14 opps. Kerry Wood’s conversion to closer isn’t going smoothly. Though Wood can be difficult to hit (.200 BA against), when he’s bad, he’s really bad. He threw another shoe Thursday in a 4-3 loss to Milwaukee. It was Wood’s third blown save of the season; he’s 4 of 7. But manager Loe Piniella does have a viable option to close in the dynamic Carlos Marmol, who has a 1.42 ERA so far, with a blistering strikeout rate of 27 in 19 IP. Opponents are batting .141 vs. Marmol.
The Cubs come into STL having lost five of their last seven, good for 17-11, and a half-game behind the 18-11 Cardinals. Though the bullpen has created headaches, the Cubs definitely have one of the best teams in the NL, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be strong season. Piniella will get the ‘pen straightened out. Remember, the Cubs slogged around during a 24-32 start last season before going 15 games over .500 after June 5.
There are no excuses for the North Siders. When you spend $500 million in 24 months, you’d better have players who produce and deliver, and you’d better get impressive results. And the Cubs have assembled a very impressive roster.
It’s going to be fascinating to see if the Cardinals can keep up with the best ATM and OBP machines in the NL Central. The Cardinals can play loose and have fun because no one expects them to win. And they last won a World Series in 2006, which, if I’m not mistaken, is more recent than 1908.
–B
Great article Bern!!! Just wanted to point out, that there are few constants in life. One is the fact that it will get dark tonight. The sun will be back tomorrow. Manny will be Manny, forevermore, and the Cub$ will be the Cub$. It just seems like fate keeps them at bay. Even some of their better teams (when they had them) seemed to flounder. I wonder what the pundits will have to say about moneyball, when the Cub$ continue through the season, only to come up a “day late and a dollar short”.