Notes on a Scorecard: Cubs as Road Worriers?
Happy 4th of July to everyone…
The Cardinals and the Cubs begin a three-game series at Busch Stadium on Friday night, and it’s interesting to note the dramatic differences in how the Cubs have played on the road this season, compared to their dominance at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs already are 33-10 at Wrigley, for a winning percentage of .767.
That’s easily the best home winning percentage by a Cubs team in franchise history, at least to this point.
The Cubs should have no problem setting a new franchise record for most home wins in a season; the 1984 and 1998 versions each won 51 games.
Cubs hitters are utterly intimidating at Wrigley. Through the first 43 home games, they’ve banged out the best batting average (.311), onbase percentage (.391) and slugging percentage (.500) in Wrigley history.
Until now, the 2004 Cubs had the highest home SLG, at .484. This year’s team is 16 points above that. The 1970 Cubs had a .362 OBP at home; this year’s team is 29 points above that. The 1979 Cubs had the highest home batting average at .297; the ‘08 Cubs have that beat by 14 points.
On the road it’s a much different story.
The Cubs have lost eight of their last 10 away from the Friendly Confines and are 18-25 overall on the road.
Take a look at these huge gaps in the Cubs’ home/road hitting:
Batting Average: .311 H … .254 R … differential: minus 57
Onbase Percentage: .391 H … .330 R … differential: minus 61
Slugging Percentage: .500 H … .386 R …. differential: minus 114
Runs / Game: 6.4 at home …. 4.3 road … differential: minus 2.1 runs
Homers / Game: 1.4 at home, 0.8 road. …
The Cubs have the fifth-best HR rate at home, and are 21st on the road.
The disparity in the splits is clearly reflected in individual hitters.
Let’s take a look:
– Derrek Lee has 13 HRs at home, and 2 on the road.
– Aramis Ramirez is .340 BA, .478 OBP and .589 SLG at home and .240 / .294 / .420 on the road.
– Fukudome loves Wrigley: .373 / .476 / .563 at home; .212 / .320 / .285 on the road.
– Jimmy Edmonds has gotten in line. As a Cub he has a Wrigley OPS of .1335 … but a .773 OPS on the road.
– A. Soriano: .337 / .386 / .663 at Wrigley; .231 / .280 / .435 on the road.
The Cubs pitching staff feels the same love at Wrigley.
At home, Cubs starting pitchers are 25-6 with a 3.64 ERA.
Away from Wrigley, Cubs starting pitchers are 11-17 with a 4.31 ERA.
The Cubs bullpen?
You got it: 16 saves in 18 opps at home; 10 of 20 on the road … 3.22 ERA home, 4.01 ERA road.
I was discussing all of this in the Busch pressbox Thursday night with my friend Pip of the Fungoes blog … And he rightly wondered if Ballpark Factors had something to do with the Cubs’ offensive spree at home this season. But Pip’s quick look at the data showed no abnormalities at Wrigley; the park is playing much like it did a year ago. And in the most recent seasons.
Maybe the Cubs just have better players, swinging the bats.
But if that’s the case, than why do so many of the sluggers shrink on the road?
Is it just a matter of having supreme confidence at Wrigley? Are visiting teams and pitchers rattled there?
(Your theories are welcome in the comments section).
I’d imagine that things will even out a bit; the Cubs probably will play better on the road, and settle down some at home.
The Cardinals hope so; they don’t play at Wrigley until early August, with three games. Followed by another three there in September. The Cardinals got the best of the scheduling draw this time. The Cubs have to come to STL for three series, and the Cardinals go to Wrigley for two.
The Cubs and their fans will be hoping for better days on the road. Why? If the race is tight, consider this: the Cubs finish with 16 of their final 22 games on the road, including the last seven (four at NY Mets, three at Milwaukee).
And until the Cubs get their road woes straightened out, the Cardinals would be wise to take advantage by claiming this series at Busch.
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In splitting the four-game series with the Mets, the Cardinals once again played down to the level of their competition at home. Against teams that currently have a losing record, the Cardinals are 17-15 at Busch this season. They are 8-4 at Busch in games vs. winning teams. Go figure.
The Cardinals’ inability to dominate at home (if it continues) will seriously damage their postseason aspirations.
The Cardinals are 17-17 in their last 34 at home, and 11-12 since May 13.
In their last 23 home games, the Cardinals have been outscored 136-96.
The Cubs, who are searching for success on the road, may be coming to the right place.
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Adam Kennedy has quietly batted .340 (18 for 53) since June 6.
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Adam Wainwright went out with a finger injury on June 7.
In the 23 games playe during his absence, Cardinals starting pitchers have gone fewer than six innings 11 times in the 23 starts. And the paltry number of innings apparently is impacting the bullpen.
With Wainwright on the roster, the relievers had an ERA of 3.86.
With Wainwright on the mend, the relievers have an ERA of 5.01.
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Kerry Wood is doing a fantastic job as the Cubs closer. After overcoming some early turbulence, he’s saved 17 of 18 games and has an 0.98 ERA since May 2, with 40 Ks in 27.2 IP.
Thanks for reading….
-B
everyone is so hyped on the cubs this year, yet i have always thought the true measure of a team is how they play on the road. at home, with all the psychological advantages a good team should win two thirds of their games at home and go .500 on the road. i think the way the cards play on the road will see them into the playoffs. and if the cards can take two of three in boston where the red sox had just as impressive home record, they should not be intimidated by the cubs home record. and i think the cards have a deeper talent base on the bench and in the minors. with just a trade to bolster the left handed bullpen, i think this team can finish ahead of the cubs. why are the cubs so much better at home? i think it takes a home crowd to motivate a team of veterans whereas a young team like the cards are self motivated and hungry.