Brewers-Cards Preview: Must Win for the Home Team?
Hope everyone is having a nice day and looking forward to a brief but compelling two-game series between the Brewers and Cardinals at Busch Stadium.
Let’s go:
- This is a big series for the Cardinals. They don’t have to win both games, but losing two would put them in a difficult position, trailing the Brewers by 5.5 games with 28 games remaining and a tough schedule up ahead. That said, I’m not one of these Chicken Littles who believes it’ll be over if the Cardinals drop these two games; there is time to recover, and the Brewers will play six of their final 12 games against the Cubs. And though a sweep of Milwaukee would obviously improve the Cardinals’ standing (they’d be only 1.5 out on the WC side), the progress could get thrown away if St. Louis goes on the road and has a rough time in Houston and Arizona. The point? Well, it’s one that Tony La Russa makes often, and it’s valid: you gotta just keep piling up wins. You gotta just keep winning games. Beating Milwaukee twice would be great … but wins over any team are crucial at this time.
- Milwaukee has won the last six meetings and leads the season series with the Cardinals, 9-4. An improved STL bullpen should help the cause this time around. As I wrote very early in the season, the Brewers weren’t going to do anything significant this season unless they proved they can handle the Cardinals, a team that has dominated them for so long. Well, so far this season the Brewers have shown that they can take care of the Cardinals. Now it’s up to the Cardinals to reverse the trend.
- After leaving STL, Milwaukee heads to Pittsburgh for three… and the Brewers are 8-1 against the Pirates so far this season. That’s why, looking ahead a bit, the Cardinals had better play well during their three-game set in Houston this weekend. Because chances are pretty good that Milwaukee will have a grand time in Pittsburgh.
– The CC Sabathia acquisition has been an enormous boost to the Brewers. He’s 8-0 with a 1.59 ERA. Since the July 7 trade, the Brewers are 27-15. But look at it this way: they are 9-1 in games started by Sabathia, and 18-14 in all other games. The big man has made a real difference. The Brewers are 21 games over .500 for the first time since 1992.
– That deal, and others, has put Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin in the lead for Executive of the Year. His outstanding work began during the offseason, long before the Sabathia deal materialized with Cleveland. After last season, it became obvious that the Brwers had established a talented nucleus of young players, mostly hitters, to build around. Guys like Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, etc. But the group lacked maturity and poor coping skills played a role in the team’s demise in 2007, when the Brewers frittered away a first-place lead of 8.5 games in the NL Central and finished out of the money. As Hardy told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: “We were definitely lost. We were losing more games than we were winning. There was some panic. It wasn’t really fun.”
- And that’s why Melvin addressed the experience issue in the offseason, signing center fielder Mike Cameron, catcher Jason Kendall and outfielder Gabe Kapler. They all brought to Milwaukee a reputation of being winning players, and strong in the clubhouse. The hard-driving Cameron has 23 homers. Though Kendall is slumping at the plate (.227 since the All Star break) he’s thrown out 40 percent of attempted base stealers. And Kapler has done a swell job as the fourth outfielder, batting .302 with a .491 SLG. In addition, the bullpen was addressed through Melvin’s acquisitions of David Riske, Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota and Eric Gagne. Riske has a 2.45 ERA since July 6. Mota is erratic, but still brings a power arm out of the bullpen and has 41 Ks in 45 IP. Torres has saved 25 games in 31 opps, not bad at all. Gagne has been a disaster — and represents the only move by Melvin that blew up on him this season. Melvin also added a nice piece for the bench in former Giants 2B Ray Durham.
– And the truth is, manager Ned Yost probably needed the veterans like Cameron, Kendall and Kapler to provide leadership. Yost’s own leadership skills have been under fire; he melted down late last year and probably cost his team a spot in the postseason by foolishly getting caught up in a plunking contest with La Russa’s Cardinals. Yost explained the value of the veteran additions in his words to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: “It’s the experience of being through it a number of times and just helping younger guys. When guys get upset or frustrated, or they start to press, you look around and there’s the veterans talking to them … I can walk up and tell them ‘Relax, take it easy.’ But it’s always better coming from a teammate. We got guys that are very calm and measured. And that’s not even talking about what they do on the field.”
– When rookie pitcher Manny Parra was shoved by Fielder in an ugly dugout confrontation on Aug. 4 in Cincinnati, the veteran leaders took over after the game. Cameron brokered a truce, with Fielder apologizing to Parra for his actions. Since that altercation, the Brewers are 14-4. (It also helps to have played a soft schedule during that time).
– Sabathia has received considerable acclaim, but the back end of the Brewers rotation is doing a fantastic job this month. In August Jeff Suppan is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA, and Dave Bush is 3-0, 2.30. Oddly, Ben Sheets is only 1-5 with a 4.09 ERA since Sabathia became a Brewer.
– The Brewers are 25-11 in one-run games this season.
– Sheets pitches for the Brewers on Tuesday night. Albert Pujols has 26 hits against Sheets — that’s the most career hits Pujols has against any one pitcher.
– Ryan Braun has crushed Cardinals pitching since his arrival in the bigs on May 25, 2007. His career stats against the Cardinals: 94 ABs, 9 homers, 23 RBIs, .426 BA, .446 OBP, .819 SLG. ]
But maybe there’s hope for the Cardinals this time. Bothered by a rib-cage injury, Braun is hitting .273 with 3 homers in his last 66 ABs, going back to July 29.
– Braun does have weaknesses. Since the Cardinals are starting two RH pitchers (Todd Wellemeyer, and Adam Wainwright), let’s take a look at the holes in Braun’s swings against RH, courtesy of STATS: he hits .227 against changeups… .232 against sliders … .227 against high fastballs … .130 against low sliders … .094 against low fastballs. OK, so the plan sounds simple enough: stay away from the middle of the plate, and make sure to show him that changeup. (All easy for me to say; I don’t have to face the guy!)
– The Brewers’ starting-pitching ERA is 3.89. That’s fourth-best in the NL (the Cardinals are sixth at 4.15) and the best rotation ERA by a Brewers team since 1992.
– Cardinals starters have pitched very well over the last several weeks; since July 28, a span of 25 games, the St. Louis rotation has a 3.25 ERA.
– Don’t forget about the Phillies in the WC race. They’ve won seven of their last eight, including a four-game sweep of the Dodgers. The Phils are 4 games behind Milwaukee and trail the Cardinals by a half-game in the WC standings. Then again, the Phillies could overtake the Mets in the NL East. The Phillies and Mets start a two-game series in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. And then the Phillies head to Chicago to play four at Wrigley Field.
Thanks for reading…
-B
Bernie –great info and stats. Couple of things, if Milwaukee fails to make playoffs and lose assets to free agency then Melvin will be certainly looked at differently, but, imo, he made the right move. On the other hand, I think Mozeliak has failed this year. Yes, we weren’t expected to compete but once we showed we could there should have been some moves made to help. I read today that Minnesota acquired a lefty reliever (Guadardo) for basically nothing, you telling me he couldn’t help us…Remember, you can’t win it all if you don’t make the tourney. One last point, your article about Pujols yesterday, the one thing that stands out about is his at bats with such few runners on goes completely against LaRussa’s philosophy of batting pitcher 8th.
Thanks for the stats Bernie. It has always been my contention the our GM is just a figure head for the owners who are calling all the shots. He is the worst type of modern “press secretary”, the face of the PR blitz the Cards control. They haven’t made a real move save the Lohse acquisition, which I think was just a stop gap measure they were sure would resolve with a simple trade before the deadline. Spare me the Rolen Glaus deal bailout. The fact that the Cards haven’t declared their starting pitchers for the weekend has my attention. The Rotation options aren’t that complex. I think if the Cards get bent over by the Brewers, they’re planning a move of some sort concerning Pinero or Lohse. Bettcha.
I wonder what would have happened if when Mr Dewitt was batboy if he just duct taped broken bats and picked up twigs and branches from the forest for the players to play with?????? I’m sure that the Cardinal franchise is doing terrific financially and I’m not oblivious to the fact that many dollars are tied into players that are broken down(Mulder,Isringhausen,Encarnacion) and with the departure of everyone’s NEW FAVORITE CUBBIE Jimmy Ballgame……I can’t tell you how sick THAT makes me…with all of the money available next year we should be able to go get a Halliday(always wishful thinking!!!!)……OOOPPPPSSSSSSS!!!! I forgot that’s probably money reserved to FINALLY complete Baseball Village….how about some picnic tables and a circus tent????? And by the way guitarhero I think your probably right, I mean if your not buying your sellin’…..
Nice post, Bern…
Melvin probably is the leader for Executive of the Year. The Brewers had to make the playoffs or Melvin and Yost were going to lose their jobs. So in that sense it was a good deal for Melvin. But the player they traded for CC, Matt Laporta will be a five tool type guy for the Indians for many year, most likely. The Brewers have CC for only a few months. There is no way that they resign him next year. Hes not going to settle for anything less than what the Mets gave Johan Santana last offseason. Sabathia was a rental and the Brewers know it, if the Brewers don’t win the WS and Laporta proves to be a star in Cleveland then a few months of CC don’t look that great.
Could the Birds have made a deal for a Sabathia or A.J. Burnett? Yes. The Cards have a deep farm system. But next year nobody will want to deal Garcia, Raz, or Joey Bombs. I think it is safe to say that the Cards have a top ten farm system. Teams relized how deep the system was and the trade proposals were just unreal.
Bernie seems to have done what he accuses some of the fans of doing–blowing things out of proportion. First, you say the Brewers “own” the Cards (the implication being that they are better than the Cards), then you proceed to detail how shockingly sloppy the Cards played. So, which is it? Do the Brewers “own” the Cards or did the Cardinals play a sloppy game? I agree the Cards are hurt by the lack of an acquisition at the trade deadline. Mo put all his eggs in the Fuentes basket and consequently lost out on other potential deals. The biggest problem is that the bullpen simply cannot consistently give up 3 or 4 (or more) runs per game. That’s when the game got out of reach last night. The bullpen has been better, but it’s a long ways from being fixed, imo. And I don’t get why Tony keeps starting Ankiel. Why not let Mather play instead? At least he gets some hits. Oh, I know…Tony keeps Ankiel in there because he’s looking for THE BIG HIT to win the game. The Cards had their chances last night, but when you clog the lineup with obviously slumping hitters, how can you expect to get runs across the plate? That kills a rally quicker than anything.