Cardinals-Braves Preview
Welcome back, Adam Wainwright. Before his finger injury, the tall cool one was on quite a roll. From May 16, 2007 until going out in early June of this season, Wainwright was 17-12 and had an ERA of 3.03. That ERA was fifth-best in the NL over that time. Wainwright had emerged as one of the league’s elite pitchers, and the Cardinals will need him to find that groove ASAP to boost their postseason bid.
As Waino returns, the Cardinals’ rotation is on a pretty good roll as of late, with the starters crafting a very nice 3.28 ERA over the previous 22 games.
Now, onto the Braves…
It’s really strange to see the Atlanta Braves in such a sorry state. They come into STL having lost 10 of their last 11 games, and are 7-19 in their last 26. The swoon has dropped their record to 56-72, and they’re so far away from first place in the NL East (15 games out) that it looks like 1990 all over again. That 1990 team went 65-97, the last season of futility before the Braves went on a glorious run of dominance.
Though nitpickers will sneer at the Braves’ sparse total of one World Series championship during this era, history will be kind — actually, history will be in awe — of what the Braves accomplished from 1991 through 2005:
* 15 consecutive winning seasons, and that includes 14 division titles and six seasons of at least 100 victories.
* Over those 15 seasons the Braves outscored opponents by 2,106 runs.
* And a 15-season winning percentage of .606 … which is just crazy.
Here are the five best winning percentages during that 1991-2005 time frame:
1. Braves (.606)
2. Yankees (.579)
3. Red Sox (.539)
4. Cardinals (.535)
5. Astros (.531)
Or look at it this way: if we had National League standings over a 15-year period, the Braves would have finished 168 games ahead of the next best team, the Cardinals … and 176 games ahead of the third-place team, the Astros. Unreal…
* The 1991-2005 run was primarily known for the pitching artistry of Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz … though by 2005, Smoltz was the only one left. Glavine left for NY as a free agent after the 2002 season, and Maddux left as a free agent, headed to Chicago, after 2003.
* As Braves, Maddux (4), Glavine (2) and Smoltz (1) combined for 7 National League Cy Young awards during the franchise’s golden era of pitching prosperity. And that includes six Cys in a row (with four by Maddux) from 1991-96.
* From ‘91 through ‘05, Braves starting pitchers had a 3.46 ERA … think about that one for a moment. A 3.46 ERA over a 15-year period? In this age of offense? Wow. And that’s not all; Braves starters’ individual won-loss records over those 15 years added up to 1,060 wins and 650 losses. That’s a winning percentage of .620. And that’s sick.
Now look at them…
The Braves come limping into St. Louis with guys named Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo Reyes and Jorge Campillo in their rotation. The other two rotation slots are filled by a very promising and talented young pitcher (Jair Jurrjens) and the fossilized Mike Hampton. And on second thought, I need to be kind to Campillo. He’s another young starter who is doing very well in his first extended trial in the bigs, fashioning a 3.29 ERA in 32 games (including 18 starts). Jurrjens (3.28 ERA) and Campillo give ATL two for the future.
During this 7-19 slide, Braves starting pitchers have an ERA of 5.81. The careers of Smoltz and Glavine were likely terminated by injuries this season. Glavine’s return to ATL for the 2008 season went poorly, and ended with a damaged elbow. Smoltz’s shoulder finally gave out. Maddux, meanwhile, is still pitching decently. He was recently traded from San Diego to the LA Dodgers for the stretch run.
And for the rebuilding Braves, it’s all a memory now — those images of Glavine and Maddux painting the corners and Smoltz churning out those nasty sliders to keep hitters locked down.
Other numbers of a Braves demise:
* They are 6-25 in one-run games this season.
* When the Braves score 3 or fewer runs in a game this season, they are 5-55.
* Since being acquired from the Angels in exchange for Mark Teixeira, 1B Casey Kotchman is only batting .157. He’s 11 for 70.
* And even the old reliable, Chipper Jones, is on fumes. Since July 7, Chipper is batting only .263 with a .384 OBP and a .325 SLG. Before July 7, Chipper was batting .391 with a .488 OBP and a .631 SLG. With such a diluted lineup surrounding him, Jones isn’t getting much to hit.
Manager Bobby Cox is presumably stocking up on the antacids.
Thanks for reading…
-B
It’s karma for all those years that Umpires and impatient batters were MAKING Maddux a superstar by widening the plate 6-8 inches! Make Him throw STRIKES, and it’s batting practice–even in His prime!
Your name should be Idiot Dan
Karma for all those years that umpires and impatient batters were MAKING Maddux a superstar by widening the plate????? Sounds like sour grapes to me. Maddux is a top 10 all-time pitcher. Stay classy, Indy Dan…
Bernie, you wrote:
“Here are the five best winning percentages during that 1991-2005 time frame:”
This is an interesting comparison, however I would contend that it is not very meaningful. The reason I say this is because you did not just randomly choose the time period 1991-2005, and then decide to compare winning percentages for different teams over that period. Instead, you chose this time period because it corresponds exactly with the Braves’ 15-year run of excellence. Even if another team had an even more amazing 15-year run in the recent past, they most likely would not stack up favorably with the Braves in this comparison, unless their 15-year run just coincidentally happened to cover almost exactly the same years as the Braves’ run. Therefore, we should know a priori that the Braves will almost certainly come out looking the best in this comparison, simply because the time period was chosen to coincide exactly with their amazing streak of dominance. I think that it would be more meaningful instead to compare the Braves’ 15-year run with the best 15-year run in each other team’s history, even if the years are different.
(And none of this is meant to take away from the Braves, because I completely agree that what they did from 1991 to 2005 was truly amazing. I’m trying to make more of a point about statistics than about baseball.)
Dan, I was going to say that about all of them. They are all great pitchers, yes, but they always seemed to have a larger strike zone than most others.
That said, it probably would have cost them about 4 wins between the three of them. They were still something else…
If any pitcher pounds the corners of the strike zone they’ll start to get those calls. It’s a testament to Glavine and Maddux that they were able to do that so consistently. It’s also what has resurrected Ryan Dempster this year as he demonstrated in his last start against the Cards.
I wanted to do a quick study of the Braves’ run and see how dominant they were compared to their peers during those 15 years, that’s all. Not a big deal. Wasn’t trying to make a profound commentary on baseball history … just taking a snapshot of the Braves’ incredible run over a 15-year span. So of course I would focus on their 15 seasons … what else was I supposed to focus on? Thanks.
Well put Bernie…I thought it was an interesting comparison. They really were dominant during that era. Let’s just hope their recent losing tendencies continues into this weekend at Busch.
Sadly, the home-town team has had a knack (read: Pittsburgh Pirates) for turning “also-rans” into world beaters at Busch this year.
I’ll be a believer of the Braves’ demise if/when I see a Cardinals sweep of this three game series.
And when in the world did people start using this nickname “Waino?” Is it that tough to spell Wainwright???
Campillo is 30. Just sayin…