UPDATE:  I just arrived at Wrigley Field, and it is simply a gorgeous day, sunny and temps in the upper 70s. Breezy, too. Will that wind push fly balls over the ivy? We’ll see. Our 9 a.m. flight was filled with Cardinals fans. Everyone was in a fantastic mood. It’s one of those great-to-be-alive days….

Before we take a look at the first Cards-Cubs series at Wrigley Field this season — and examine the Cubs’ record-setting offensive pace at home — let’s examine the topic of rookie closers.

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa reiterated Thursday that he doesn’t think it’s wise to plant rookies into the closer’s role. TLR clearly wants to tamp down expectations after the town started buzzing about what rookie Chris Perez did to the LA Dodgers on Wednesday night. Which is understandable, but only to a point.

Rookies have closed many times before, and they have done so for postseason-bound teams, and contending teams, and winning teams. By no means is this a complete list. I went to the STATS data base to do some research and frankly was surprised to see how many rookies have thrived in the role.

STATS only has save data going back to 1954, but since then 82 rookies have saved at least 10 games, and 43 have saved at least 15 games. A few of these guys have been older closers, recruited from Japan, but the list is dominated by true rookies. But in fairness to La Russa, some of the “rookies” actually got a taste of the big leagues late in the preceding season before being given a chance to close full-time the following year. That scenario does not apply to Perez for 2008, because this is his first experience in the bigs.

Anyway …

I wanted to offer some examples. Let’s start with La Russa’s own background. In 1982, he relied on a rookie closer, Salome Barojas, who saved 21 in 27 opportunities for the White Sox, who posted a winning season. And who can forget 2006, when Adam Wainwright stepped in an emergency and became La Russa’s lights-out closer for the Cardinals’ World Series run in 2006.

Cardinals fans will remember Todd Worrell emerging late for the 1985 Cardinals. A September call-up, Worrell didn’t get his first save until Sept. 13, and saved 5 of 7 down the stretch to hold off the 98-win Mets in the NL East. And here’s the interesting thing about that: there was no bullpen crisis for Whitey Herzog and his team. Up to the point that Worrell notched his first save,other Cardinals relievers had saved 35 of 45 games with the committee approach instituted by Herzog. In other words, that ‘85 team was much stronger at closing out games than the ‘08 Cardinals are. That didn’t stop Herzog from making a bold move. With Worrell throwing 96 mph heaters at Triple A Louisville, Herzog called him up and made him the closer. The Cardinals finished with 101 wins. Another note from 1985: the Mets had a rookie closer, Roger McDowell, who performed well in tandem with veteran LH Jesse Orosco. They each finished with 17 saves.

And then there were the 1975 Reds, managed by Sparky Anderson, who mentored La Russa. TLR has always graciously credited Anderson for teaching him so many things about managing. In that context, it’s interesting to note that Sparky’s ‘75 Big Red Machine, one of the greatest teams in history, used not one but two rookie closers en route to a World Series title. Rawly Eastwick saved 22 in 25 opps, and Will McEnaney saved 15 of 19. Eastwick did pitch in a few games in 1974, and McEnaney worked 27 innings for the ‘74 Reds, but both officially were rookies in 1975. Somehow, the Reds won 108 games with those rookies working most of the ninth innings.

Atlanta manager Bobby Cox is in fourth place on the all-time wins list (a spot behind La Russa) and Cox didn’t hesitate to turn to rookie closers when he had to. In 1993, rookie Greg McMichael saved 19 games in 21 opps. He wasn’t alone; lefty Mike Stanton saved 27 for the division-winning Braves, as Cox mixed and matched. (Which is what La Russa is aiming to do now, and may be able to do now, with Perez in the mix, and depending on how certain guys do).

A more pertinent example for the 2008 Cardinals and their messed-up bullpen are the 1998 Braves. That year, Cox suddenly lost his very good closer, Mark Wohler, to a meltdown. (Not totally unlike Jason Isringhausen in ‘08). So what did Cox do? The Braves called up an unheralded minor-league reliever named Kerry Ligtenberg, who had gotten a few innings late in the ‘97 season for the Braves. But when he got the call after Wohlers’ implosion, Ligtenberg had an amazing 1998 season, saving 30 games in 34 opps for the Braves, who won 106 games.

Some other notable rookie closers, and again, this is not meant as any type of definitive list:

– Bobby Jenks, 2005 White Sox: He was called up late to replace Dustin Hermanson, who had saved 34 games. Jenks bailed out the Sox. He had 6 saves in 8 opps, then was the closer in the triumphant postseason that culminated in the World Series championship.

– Jonathan Papelbon, 2006 Red Sox: 35 saves in 41 opps. And he was groomed as a starter in the minors.

– Billy Koch, 1999 Blue Jays: 31 saves in 35 opps.

– Houston Street, 2005 A’s: 23 saves in 27 opps.

– Gregg Olson, 1989 Orioles: 27 saves in 33 opps for a team that surprisingly stayed in the hunt until late Sept.

– Ken Tatum, 1969 Angels: 22 of 23.

– Wayne Granger, 1969 Reds: 27 of 37. (As an astute observer points out in the comments section: Granger received some experience with the in ‘68).

– Joakim Soria, 2007 Royals: 17 of 21.

– Rich Loiselle, 1997 Pirates: 29 of 34.

– Yhency Brazoban saved 21 games for a Dodgers team that won the NL West. (Though in truth he wasn’t very good).

The point? Rookies can close successfully under any circumstances. La Russa and other managers may be reluctant to use them in the role, but historically the rookies have taken on the duty and handled it with poise and skill.

Late add-on thoughts… Again, I want to try to be fair here. One of La Russa’s points is that if you rush a rookie into a pressure role too soon, you take the risk of “ruining” them. That’s possible. And La Russa’s opinion is backed up by the fact that some of the really terrific closers of the last 20, 25 years were eased into the closer role instead of getting tossed in. They worked as set-up men for a year, or for a while, before graduating to closer. That’s how Joe Torre handled Mariano Rivera in 1996. Rivera, a rookie, was the set-up man for closer John Wetteland for those World Series champion Yankees. And La Russa used Wainwright as a late-inning reliever all season until Izzy withdrew because of a bad hip. Then Waino was elevated to closes.

Take a look at the names I cited on my rundown of rookie closers. Many of those guys never sustained their quality over a long period of time. But was that because they were rushed into a tough job? Did an injury derail them? Or were they eventually exposed as not being as good as they first appeared to be?  I don’t think there’s a firm theory here. I don’t think there’s one thing to explain it all. I think it’s a combination of factors. But rookies are capable of closing.

MOVING ONTO CARDS-CUBS:

– No word yet on Rick Ankiel’s availability for Friday’s game. He was on the field moments ago, running sprints in the outfield, supervised by the trainers. Ankiel is close to making it back from a strained abdominal muscle. As I type this, La Russa has posted two lineups, one with Ankiel, and one with no Ankiel. He’ll decide what to do after seeing how Ankiel feels after the workout.

– The Cardinals have played very well on the road. They’re the highest-scoring road team in the majors this season, averaging 5.32 runs per game.

– But this is a tough assignment. The Cubs are 43-16 at Wrigley so far. How good is that? Well, it’s a home winning percentage of .729. That’s the highest home winning percentage by a Cubs team over the last 55 years. (Data only goes back to 1954). Until now, the second-best home success belonged to the 1984 team (.638).

– To this point, this could be the best offensive team the Cubs have ever put on the grass at Wrigley. The 2008 Cubs will likely set some home records (on offense) before the season is over. They are scoring 6.14 runs per game at home, the most according to STATS data dating back to 1954. The combined home onbase-slugging percentage of .875 is also the highest going back to ‘54.

– The 2008 Cubs are leading the NL in home scoring, slugging, onbase percentage and are second in homers.

– Who are the Cubs’ best hitters at home?

Many:

* Aramis Ramirez has 12 homers and 43 RBIs and an unreal .472 OBP and .607 SLG. The only NL players who have a higher home OPS this season are Chipper Jones and Matt Holliday.

* Derrek Lee has 14 homers and 36 RBIs and a .524 SLG. Lee has only three homers away from Wrigley. He has the highest percentage of HRs hit at home in the majors this season.

* Alfonso Soriano has 14 homers and 37 RBIS and a SLG of .664.

* Ramirez, Fukudome, Theriot, DeRosa and Edmonds have OBPs higher than .400 at home.

* Geovany Soto has 40 RBIs at home, and a .492 SLG.

* Six Cubs regulars are hitting higher than .300 at home.

* Old friend Edmonds has a SLG of .704 at Wrigley this season, with seven homers in 73 at-bats.

– Best of luck to Cardinals starting pitchers Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer and Chris Carpenter this weekend.

– Since the start of the 2002 season, Albert Pujols has the most extra-base hits in the majors, 555. But No. 2 on the list is the Cubs’ Soriano, with 552.

Enjoy the series….

-B