Postseason Chances: Cardinals in Worst Shape Since ‘99
Hope everyone is enjoying the Labor Day Weekend …
Before we preview the Cardinals-Diamondbacks series, let’s take a look at the Cardinals’ increasingly unstable condition in the postseason race.
After being swept three games in Houston, the Cardinals haven’t been this far out of a playoff spot on Labor Day since 1999.
Right now they trail the first-place Cubs by 11 games, and are 6.5 behind the wild-card leading Brewers.
And this is unusual territory for the Cardinals. From 2000 through 2007 — except for 2001, and more on that in a minute — the Cardinals were in the division lead or within a couple of games of a potential playoff spot when the schedule hit September.
You’d have to go back to 1999 to see the Cardinals stalled in such a precarious position as they are now.
On Labor Day 1999, the Cardinals were in fourth place, 14.5 games behind in the division, and 16 games out in the wild card.
OK, for the eternal optimists, if you’re looking for something to cling to, try this:
On Labor Day 2001, the Cardinals were six games out of first place (in third) and trailed by two games in the wild card. And they surged in September, overtaking the Cubs and tying the Astros by winning 20 of their final 26 games. That was good enough for STL to claim the NL wild card spot for the first and only time under manager Tony La Russa. The 2001 team received a big boost from starting pitcher Woody Williams, who was acquired from the Padres for CF Ray Lankford.
The 2001 Cardinals also needed to exploit slumps, and that’s what happened. The 2001 Astros lost eight out of nine games in one Sept. stretch, and the Cubs had a 4-10 swoon during the final month. The 2008 Cubs are out of the Cardinals’ range, and given Milwaukee’s terrific starting pitching and power bats in the lineup, there are no signs of collapse in Milwaukee… though the Brewers will be tested during a 10-game road trip through Philadelphia (4), Chicago (3) and Cincinnati.
Given that the Cardinals are 17-20 since July 21, and 26-27 since July 30, something truly amazing would have to happen over their final 25 games for them to leap ahead of the Brewers and other NL wild card contenders. And the Cardinals haven’t had a winning streak go beyond 5 games this season.
A glance at the Diamondbacks:
– Does anyone want to win the NL West? After losing six out of their last seven, the first-place D-Backs (69-67) are only 2.5 games ahead of the second-place LA Dodgers. And the Dodgers had lost eight straight before winning on Saturday and Sunday at Arizona.
– Arizona has aggressively tried to shore up the roster. Before the July 31 trade deadline they grabbed RH reliever Jon Rauch from Washington. Rauch pitched well as a setup man for a while, but has experienced forearm stiffness, and his ERA as a Diamondback is 6.19. Last month the D-backs acquired slugger Adam Dunn from the Reds, and on Sunday just landed former Cardinal shortstop David Eckstein from the Blue Jays. Another late pickup is LH reliever Will Ledezma, who was claimed on waivers from the Padres.
– Not including Sunday’s game, Dunn was batting .283 with two homers and 11 RBIs in 53 ABs as a D-Back. His impact has been reduced by avoidance; pitchers have walked Dunn 22 times in 17 games since he came to Arizona. His OBP as a Diamondback is .493. (Late note: Dunn went 0 for 3 against LA on Sunday).
– As for Eckstein, he was phased out after Cito Gaston replaced the fired John Gibbons as manager in Toronto. Eckstein had only 124 ABs since the end of May. He was hitting OK, with a .273 BA and . 352 OBP. But Eckstein’s Zone Rating at shortstop (.800) was the worst of his career. Arizona, however, will mostly use Eckstein at second base. There’s been a void at 2B since Orlando Hudson was lost for the season with a dislocated wrist on Aug. 9. Chris Burke and Augie Ojeda have combined to hit only .225 as second basemen this season. Eckstein certainly made a mistake in accepting a one-year deal in Toronto (after rejecting the Cardinals’ overtures on a one-year deal). But this could salvage his season; the Diamondbacks obviously have a good chance to make the playoffs.
– St. Louisan Max Scherzer is back with Arizona. The rookie from Mizzou pitched well in his first trial with the Diamondbacks, with a 2.81 ERA and 33 strikouts in 32 innings. The Diamonbacks sent him back to Class AAA to work on his mechanics. Scherzer also experienced an inflamed shoulder and was shut down for about a month. He used the down time wisely, working on a new program to strengthen the shoulder and surrounding muscles. And after coming off the DL in the minors on July 19, Scherzer not only showed his usual sizzling velocity (97, 98 mph) and appeared to make progress in refining his slider and changeup. The Diamondbacks believe that Scherzer’s delivery is more sound and consistent now, which will help keep him healthy. Since being recalled by Arizona late last week, Scherzer has appeared in two games, pitching three scoreless innings. Scherzer is undoubtedly looking foward to Arizona’s 4-game series at Busch Stadium in the final week of the regular season.
– The Cardinals will encounter the formidable presence of Randy Johnson on Monday afternoon, and the (nearly) 45-year-old has turned back the clock this summer. The lock Hall of Famer, returning from back surgery, got off to an awful start this season, with a 4-7 record and 5.46 ERA in his first 15 starts. But over his last 10 starts, The Big Unit is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA and has 66 Ks in 66 IP. Johnson, with 294 wins, is closing in on 300 for his career. He’s pitched so well and is feeling so frisky, there’s no reason to believe he’ll retire after this season. The Diamondbacks probably have a space for him. They have Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Doug Davis under contract for 2009, and Scherzer could graduate to the ‘09 rotation. That leaves the fifth spot for Johnson.
– Defense has been a bad issue for Arizona. They’re 13th in the NL in fielding percentage, and their starting pitchers have been victimized for the second-highest number of unearned runs in the NL. Even with the shoddy fielding, the Diamnondbacks’ rotation had the NL’s fifth-best ERA (3.88) before Sunday. But the rotation is No. 1 in the league (3.61) based on Fielding Independent ERA.
– Third baseman Mark Reynolds has 25 homers … and an astounding 25 errors.
– Brandon Lyon has been decent as the closer, with 25 saves in 30 opps. But his ERA is 4.86. Not good.
– For a team equipped with good speed, Arizona doesn’t play much small ball. They’re 13th in stolen bases with 50, or 11 fewer than what the Cardinals have. They’re only 10th in sac bunts. But they do deliver a lot of triples (a league-high 39) and doubles (fifth in the league). Other than Reynolds, there isn’t a consistent power threat. (Unless Dunn gets some pitches to hit). The D-backs are 11th in the league in homers, and ninth in slugging. And they strike out a bunch: 11 more Ks in Sunday’s loss to the Dodgers, running the season total to 1,073. In the NL, only Florida’s hitters have whiffed more times than AZ’s.
– A quick Cardinals note: Perhaps Troy Glaus will get his power stroke going again upon his return to Chase Field, his home turf while playing for the Diamondbacks in 2005. Glaus has 21 homers and a .571 SLG % in 268 career ABs in Arizona’s ballpark. He’s in a power rut right now, having failed to homer since Aug. 9. Since Aug. 10, Glaus has no homers and only six RBIs in 59 ABs. And 13 of his 16 hits have been singles.
– Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina is batting a career-high .311. In the majors, only Minnesota’s Joe Mauer (.325) and Pittsburgh’s Ryan Doumit (.322) have a higher BA than Molina among regular catchers. Mauer’s season average is .320, but that includes his ABs as a DH and a pinch hitter.
Enjoy the barbeque on Monday … and as always, thanks for reading.
-B
Thanks for writing. I’m thinking that they are done. But that won’t stop me from enjoy watching them for the rest of the season. I couldn’t believe the team batting average over the last several games, then combine that with the record *ouch*. Leaving that many men on will do that. They did better than I had expected though. Just hope they can fill some of these holes come next season.
I loved seeing the stats. I’m never good when it comes to numbers.