Postseason Chances: Cardinals in Worst Shape Since ‘99
Hope everyone is enjoying the Labor Day Weekend …
Before we preview the Cardinals-Diamondbacks series, let’s take a look at the Cardinals’ increasingly unstable condition in the postseason race.
After being swept three games in Houston, the Cardinals haven’t been this far out of a playoff spot on Labor Day since 1999.
Right now they trail the first-place Cubs by 11 games, and are 6.5 behind the wild-card leading Brewers.
And this is unusual territory for the Cardinals. From 2000 through 2007 — except for 2001, and more on that in a minute — the Cardinals were in the division lead or within a couple of games of a potential playoff spot when the schedule hit September.
You’d have to go back to 1999 to see the Cardinals stalled in such a precarious position as they are now.
On Labor Day 1999, the Cardinals were in fourth place, 14.5 games behind in the division, and 16 games out in the wild card.
OK, for the eternal optimists, if you’re looking for something to cling to, try this:
On Labor Day 2001, the Cardinals were six games out of first place (in third) and trailed by two games in the wild card. And they surged in September, overtaking the Cubs and tying the Astros by winning 20 of their final 26 games. That was good enough for STL to claim the NL wild card spot for the first and only time under manager Tony La Russa. The 2001 team received a big boost from starting pitcher Woody Williams, who was acquired from the Padres for CF Ray Lankford.
The 2001 Cardinals also needed to exploit slumps, and that’s what happened. The 2001 Astros lost eight out of nine games in one Sept. stretch, and the Cubs had a 4-10 swoon during the final month. The 2008 Cubs are out of the Cardinals’ range, and given Milwaukee’s terrific starting pitching and power bats in the lineup, there are no signs of collapse in Milwaukee… though the Brewers will be tested during a 10-game road trip through Philadelphia (4), Chicago (3) and Cincinnati.
Given that the Cardinals are 17-20 since July 21, and 26-27 since July 30, something truly amazing would have to happen over their final 25 games for them to leap ahead of the Brewers and other NL wild card contenders. And the Cardinals haven’t had a winning streak go beyond 5 games this season.
A glance at the Diamondbacks:
– Does anyone want to win the NL West? After losing six out of their last seven, the first-place D-Backs (69-67) are only 2.5 games ahead of the second-place LA Dodgers. And the Dodgers had lost eight straight before winning on Saturday and Sunday at Arizona.
– Arizona has aggressively tried to shore up the roster. Before the July 31 trade deadline they grabbed RH reliever Jon Rauch from Washington. Rauch pitched well as a setup man for a while, but has experienced forearm stiffness, and his ERA as a Diamondback is 6.19. Last month the D-backs acquired slugger Adam Dunn from the Reds, and on Sunday just landed former Cardinal shortstop David Eckstein from the Blue Jays. Another late pickup is LH reliever Will Ledezma, who was claimed on waivers from the Padres.
– Not including Sunday’s game, Dunn was batting .283 with two homers and 11 RBIs in 53 ABs as a D-Back. His impact has been reduced by avoidance; pitchers have walked Dunn 22 times in 17 games since he came to Arizona. His OBP as a Diamondback is .493. (Late note: Dunn went 0 for 3 against LA on Sunday).
– As for Eckstein, he was phased out after Cito Gaston replaced the fired John Gibbons as manager in Toronto. Eckstein had only 124 ABs since the end of May. He was hitting OK, with a .273 BA and . 352 OBP. But Eckstein’s Zone Rating at shortstop (.800) was the worst of his career. Arizona, however, will mostly use Eckstein at second base. There’s been a void at 2B since Orlando Hudson was lost for the season with a dislocated wrist on Aug. 9. Chris Burke and Augie Ojeda have combined to hit only .225 as second basemen this season. Eckstein certainly made a mistake in accepting a one-year deal in Toronto (after rejecting the Cardinals’ overtures on a one-year deal). But this could salvage his season; the Diamondbacks obviously have a good chance to make the playoffs.
– St. Louisan Max Scherzer is back with Arizona. The rookie from Mizzou pitched well in his first trial with the Diamondbacks, with a 2.81 ERA and 33 strikouts in 32 innings. The Diamonbacks sent him back to Class AAA to work on his mechanics. Scherzer also experienced an inflamed shoulder and was shut down for about a month. He used the down time wisely, working on a new program to strengthen the shoulder and surrounding muscles. And after coming off the DL in the minors on July 19, Scherzer not only showed his usual sizzling velocity (97, 98 mph) and appeared to make progress in refining his slider and changeup. The Diamondbacks believe that Scherzer’s delivery is more sound and consistent now, which will help keep him healthy. Since being recalled by Arizona late last week, Scherzer has appeared in two games, pitching three scoreless innings. Scherzer is undoubtedly looking foward to Arizona’s 4-game series at Busch Stadium in the final week of the regular season.
– The Cardinals will encounter the formidable presence of Randy Johnson on Monday afternoon, and the (nearly) 45-year-old has turned back the clock this summer. The lock Hall of Famer, returning from back surgery, got off to an awful start this season, with a 4-7 record and 5.46 ERA in his first 15 starts. But over his last 10 starts, The Big Unit is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA and has 66 Ks in 66 IP. Johnson, with 294 wins, is closing in on 300 for his career. He’s pitched so well and is feeling so frisky, there’s no reason to believe he’ll retire after this season. The Diamondbacks probably have a space for him. They have Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Doug Davis under contract for 2009, and Scherzer could graduate to the ‘09 rotation. That leaves the fifth spot for Johnson.
– Defense has been a bad issue for Arizona. They’re 13th in the NL in fielding percentage, and their starting pitchers have been victimized for the second-highest number of unearned runs in the NL. Even with the shoddy fielding, the Diamnondbacks’ rotation had the NL’s fifth-best ERA (3.88) before Sunday. But the rotation is No. 1 in the league (3.61) based on Fielding Independent ERA.
– Third baseman Mark Reynolds has 25 homers … and an astounding 25 errors.
– Brandon Lyon has been decent as the closer, with 25 saves in 30 opps. But his ERA is 4.86. Not good.
– For a team equipped with good speed, Arizona doesn’t play much small ball. They’re 13th in stolen bases with 50, or 11 fewer than what the Cardinals have. They’re only 10th in sac bunts. But they do deliver a lot of triples (a league-high 39) and doubles (fifth in the league). Other than Reynolds, there isn’t a consistent power threat. (Unless Dunn gets some pitches to hit). The D-backs are 11th in the league in homers, and ninth in slugging. And they strike out a bunch: 11 more Ks in Sunday’s loss to the Dodgers, running the season total to 1,073. In the NL, only Florida’s hitters have whiffed more times than AZ’s.
– A quick Cardinals note: Perhaps Troy Glaus will get his power stroke going again upon his return to Chase Field, his home turf while playing for the Diamondbacks in 2005. Glaus has 21 homers and a .571 SLG % in 268 career ABs in Arizona’s ballpark. He’s in a power rut right now, having failed to homer since Aug. 9. Since Aug. 10, Glaus has no homers and only six RBIs in 59 ABs. And 13 of his 16 hits have been singles.
– Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina is batting a career-high .311. In the majors, only Minnesota’s Joe Mauer (.325) and Pittsburgh’s Ryan Doumit (.322) have a higher BA than Molina among regular catchers. Mauer’s season average is .320, but that includes his ABs as a DH and a pinch hitter.
Enjoy the barbeque on Monday … and as always, thanks for reading.
-B
Thanks for writing. I’m thinking that they are done. But that won’t stop me from enjoy watching them for the rest of the season. I couldn’t believe the team batting average over the last several games, then combine that with the record *ouch*. Leaving that many men on will do that. They did better than I had expected though. Just hope they can fill some of these holes come next season.
I loved seeing the stats. I’m never good when it comes to numbers.
Bernie, I don’t think you get enough praise for you wonderful imformative blogs. I thoroughly enjoy reading them. Now, as far as the Cards being done this soon, I don’t think so. I mean I know that we, as you Mr. Bernie pointed out, are 6.5 games behind the Brewers in the WC standings. However, like Pat Parris and Rick Horton pointed out last week, the Brewers only have a marginally easier schedule than the Cards and Cubs for the remainder of the regular season. And what might just help us close in on the Brew Crew is what the doctor ordered and will arrive today and Tuesday - re-inforcements from the minors. A fresh hitter or two here and a few fresh pitchers there could make a difference. How much? Well we will just have to wait and see. But in the mean time us Cards fans must not give up on our Birds. I learned that lesson years ago. Just when you think they are down and out here they come in their own unique style. It will be tough at least to catch the Brewers but it can be done.
As an aside, do you think CC Sabathia gave his teammates a heart attack yesterday when he caught that ball barehanded? Not exactly a smart thing to do if you ask me. But hey, if he wishes to get himself hurt that’s up to him. A little food for thought: Just what would have happened IF he would have injured his pitching hand? That would be a monumental break for the Cards I think. Not that I’m wishing bad things to happen to anyone.
Have a happy and safe Labor Day to all! And Go Cards!
Although Glaus numbers will be respectable at years end, they could have been much, much better. His streaky hitting has not been good enough. Glaus is a six hole hitter. The Cards need to retool their team to slot him there and leave him there. With that said, he has done superbly with his play at 3b.
For the first time in a long time, the Cards have played series against the Cubs that have been critical factors determining the outcome of the division and wildcard. Glaus has not produced against the Cubs or the NL Central for that matter. Against the Cubs Glaus is hitting .081, and against the Brewers Glaus is hitting only .255 with 0 HRs. He arguably is the lead canidate for the Gold Glove award, and has been an upgrade over Rolen with both his production and his attitude in the clubhouse. But he has not consistenly produced. If you look at the Cards lineup this has been the best lineup Glaus has been apart of since he left the Angels. In big situations he has had numerous chances to come through. Anybody with Glaus’s potential ,and anyone who is playing in a lineup with AP should have a big offensive season. Honestly, this should have been one of the best years of Glaus’s career. He’ll be back for the next year, but with the “Walrus” possibly being a Sept. callup next year, Glaus probably won’t be a Bird in 2010.
As for the Brewers protesting the scorers decision yesterday, which cost Sabathia a no-hitter; the Brewers are being really selfish here. They won the game, and Sabathia was dominant. These guys are in the middle of a playoff race, and they should take the win and move on.
Good article. I believe the Cardinals are done, not mathematically but realistically. I take this time to applaud their outstanding play this season. Understanding the season as a transition year I have been pleasantly surprised by their play. I applaud Tony LaRussa for one of his best years as the Cardinals skipper. John Mozeliak gets a pass on this season but must produce soon. We STL fans do not want a Pittsburgh/Cincinnati situation. I believe the forthcoming seasons will bear how good JM is or not. I do know that Jocketty frequently made an inventive or out of the blue, unforeseen deal when the Cards were in the middle of a race. And he seemed able to make those deals without spending the prospect bank. JM did nothing of this sort this year and they were right in the thick of it after all. I feel management was satisfied with what they got. They have always been very fiscally conservative. One last thought. The players are the real heroes of this season, refusing to yield to the dire predictions and continuing to play hard without any support from upstairs. Management and JM let them down, plain and simple, they deserved a better effort. The day is coming when a very competitive Albert Pujols will once again be a free agent. It may take more than money to keep him happy in St. Louis
Thank you for your blog. Maybe you can get this cleared up for me. How is the “sleeping giant” doing according to Poo Holes since “journeyman”, 24 year old, Carlos Villanueva and the Wild Card leading Brewers left town. I noticed three straight losses. Maybe the D’backs can awaken the “sleeping giant” by getting excited about big plays. Words of advice for ya though, D’backs, be careful what you do. Pujols (aka the All Knowing Source of What The Game Is About And How To Show It Respect) will be patroling first base and making sure you treat the game of baseball right. What a joke Pujols and LaRussa have become. I once had a large amount of respect for these two. Enough said. Tell Pujols I wish him my best in being able to find some motivation to show up and win a few games yet this year and have a Miller Lite on me.
brewcrewownu;
(Yawn!)When your team has actually won something, come back and have a rant with us Cardinal fans. Until that time though, put the sock back in your mouth and duct tape it shut.
— brewcrewownu;
Pujols is doing fine. He leads the league in hitting at a .364 clip, is first in OPS at .468 and first in slugging at .643…just to name a few.
brewcrewownu; you have a lot to cheer for up there in Milwaukee. I’d love to see a small market team like Milwaukee win it for them and their fans, but dag gonnit how can you enjoy it when you can’t appreciate the competitive nature of the game. What makes Pujols so great is he not only has a God given talent and a hard work ethic, but he is a fierce competitor. Surely you can appreciate someone like that, ehhh? If not, then, with that understanding surely you can excuse it.
I’m the eternal optimist so, until we’re mathmatically eliminated, as far as I’m concerned, we have a chance.
Check out my Cardinal baseball podcast:www.redbirdsofafeather.com
drelboc,
Great reply. There is no doubt in my mind or anyone else’s that Pujols is a competitive fella, this certainly plays a large part in the way he prepares through hard work. I do RESPECT that part of Albert Pujols. What bothers me is the way that he seems to think he can criticize the young enthusiasm of my Brewers, saying they are disrespecting the game through their enthusiasm and team closeness (see the untucking jersey saga). Being a Brewer fan is an “accentuate the good and live with the bad” membership. Pardon us for our heightened sense of pride and cockiness. Our team is putting a great product out there (primarily through the draft). We as Brewer fans need to live it up while we can.
I have always liked the Cardinals because they have never been a team that could “buy” players every offseason. Pujols was always a respectable figure when he was quiet and just flat out dominated.
Since becoming a media darling Pujols seems to have blown up his ego whether he wanted to or not. What would scare me if I was a Cards fan is the fact that Pujols admitted (strangely and someout dumbly) that it took the fist pump of Carlos Villanueva to get his team going. Um…you guys are in the same race we are, and Pujols admits they were asleep???? Competitive??? It looked more to me like the Cards were frustrated by poor situational (Slamming of helmets) hitting and Pujols was just being a poor sport and going after Villanueva after another failure from his teammate to hit in a clutch spot.
Regardless, my team has already lost today to the Mets and the Cards lead early. Perhaps I am way off base, but it angers me to see Pujols running his mouth like he’s the commisioner. Best of luck to you, you never know what’ll happen.
Go Crew…
The Cardinals’ playoff chase has ended in the same inglorious fashion as last year’s.
Last year on Labor Day, the Cardinals entered play two games out of first. They got blown out 11-0 by the lowly Pirates, split the four game series with them, and then lost every one of the seven they then played on the road. Returning home, they lost seven of the next nine. At that point, they were nine and a half out and done for the season.
Having lost four of their last five, the Cardinals are well on their way to a similar collapse.
Great job, Tony.
— brewcrewownu;
Thank you for your kind words toward my post on the matter.
I can remember the dry spell my beloved Cardinals went
through from 1969 to 1981. I can remember wondering if
they would ever win again because in those lean years
when they did not, a championship just seemed impossible
to obtain let alone make the playoffs. When they marched
toward their championship in 1982 my doubts of them doing
it were only overcome with hope by each game they won all
the way to the very last game of the World Series.
What I am trying to say is I understand your hopes,
anxieties and emotions as the your Brew crew march toward
a championship. I understand your love for your team
and I can admire the way you stick up for them.
Just keep in mind that even the best of men (for example
Pujols) are human and they in their competitive nature
will do what they think is right to fight for their team.
Professional sports will bring the best of the fighting
spirit out of the best. Thats why they are winners.
If the Cards cannot make it I will be rooting for the Brew
crew for as long as they can march. I still cannot find
myself to root for those Cubs yet. I must have the RED
BIRD DISEASE for sure.
Enjoy the March — brewcrewownu…and GOD BLESS…
So, do you guys make out before the games? I liked the Brewers before they moved to the Central - now they are the competition.
Anyhow, a middle reliever acting like a fool on the mound has never been popular among other teams and many times it has ended up worse than this little situation. Had it been Sabathia, this would have never of happened. Probably wouldn’t have happened with the fragile one either.
Sad thing is though, Pujols has never had the marbles to actually make it to the mound and seems content to act like he is going and then let whoever hold him off.