Good day…  

Before taking a look at the Reds, let’s explore the area of stealing bases against the Cardinals in 2008. Yadier Molina threw out 50 percent of the attempted stealers in 2007, and was the best in MLB at nailing thiefs. This season, however, Molina has cut down only 15 of 46 stealers, or 32.6 percent. That’s not a bad rate, in terms of historical perspective. And in the NL, only Milwaukee’s Jason Kendall has tossed out a higher percentage of stealers, 38.2 percent. But it is a drop from Molina’s standards.

Question: do Cardinals pitchers have something to do with this? Are they doing an effective job of holding on runners?

There are a few weak links:

Runners have successfully stolen 8 bases in 9 attempts against Kyle Lohse … and have pulled off a steal in 4 of 5 tries when Molina is catching Lohse.

They are 5 for 7 when Joel Pineiro is on the mound (all with Yadi catching).

And 6 of 8 when Jason Isringhausen is pitching — including 4 for 4 when Molina is catching Izzy.

And 4 for 4 when Randy Flores was relieving — all when Molina was catching Flores.

The youngsters have been vulnerable. The steal rate is 2 out of 3 against Chris Perez, and Kyle McClellan … and runners are 2 for 2 against Kelvin Jimenez and Mitchell Boggs.

Pitchers clearly make a difference in this equation. Last year for example, stealers went on a spree against Cardinals starter Kip Wells, swiping 17 bases in 21 attempts. Obviously, that success rate had more to say about Wells than the throwing ability of a Cardinals catcher.

I suspect that much of the same dynamic is in play this season. Some Cardinals pitchers just aren’t doing a good job of keeping runners close. If we remove four pitchers from the list (Lohse, Pineiro, Izzy and Flores) Molina has thrown 14 of 26 stealers — or 53.8 percent.

Onto Cincinnati …

– The Reds are in a state of flux and face rebuilding. New GM Walt Jocketty put his mark on the franchise by trading outfielders Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn. The Reds have had eight consecutive losing seasons with Griffey and Dunn, and Dunn is a free agent after the season. Jocketty undoubtedly believed it was time to take the franchise in a new direction.

– Dunn is an enigma, but only two major-league players (A-Rod and Pujols) have more homers over the last six seasons. According to media reports in Ohio, the Reds never discussed a new contract with Dunn. No question that the indifferent Dunn needed  a change, and that the Reds needed a change from him, too.

– At one point, the Reds seemed to have the arms to build a strong rotation, but Aaron Harang and  Bronson Arroyo have faded. And their former No. 1 prospect, Homer Bailey, was recently demoted to the minors (again) with an 0-6 record and 7.93 ERA. But two marvelously talented young pitchers, Edinson Volquez  and Johnny Cueto, offer hope for the future. 

– Still, the shooting-gallery nature of the Not So Great American Ballpark takes a terrible toll on the confidence of Reds’ pitchers. It’s legit to wonder if any GM or manager will be able to construct a viable rotation there. Reds pitchers once again are allowing the most home-ballpark HRs in the National League.

– There have been 1,314 homers hit at Great American since the place opened in 2003 — the most homers in any MLB ballpark from 2003-2008. The slugging percentage at Great American since it opened is .452; only the Rangers’ home ballpark has a higher SLG during that time. Bring on the sinkerballers.

– Reds owner Bob Castellini has taken the payroll up, but that probably won’t continue, because the Reds will likely fall short of their home-attendance goal of 2.4 million this season. Castellini is friends with Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt and owned a percentage of the Cardinals before buying the Reds.

– It’s gotten ugly. The Reds are 4-15 since July 25. And during the skid, their starting pitchers have an ERA of 7.13, and Reds hitters are batting .225, with a .281 OBP.

– The Reds are dangerous at home. Despite losing nine of their last 10 at home, they’re still 31-31 there this season.

– The Reds are 18-10 in one-run games; that’s the third-best 1-run record in MLB.

– With 14 homers, 53 RBIs and a .448 slugging percentage, Reds rookie first baseman Joey Votto is second to the Cubs’ Geovany Soto in the NL in rookie homers, RBIs and SLG. Votto is on the team’s bereavement list but is expected to return to the lineup Saturday.  Outfielder/shortstop Jerry Hairston Jr. is also expected back from a sore hamstring; he’s batted .347 in 193 ABs this season, and is hitting .500 at home.

– After a very fast start that got him splashed all over ESPN, rookie outfield phenom Jay Bruce has slowed dramatically. Since June 6, he’s batting .237 with a .269 OBP and has 65 strikeouts with only 10 walks.

– 2B Brandon Phillips is batting .184 in August.

– The Reds’ top Cardinals killer is 3B Edwin Encarnacion. In 128 career ABs vs. St. Louis, he’s batting .336 with a .433 OBP and a .641 SLG. Included among his 43 hits are 10 homers and nine doubles.

– On May 22, Harang made a start at San Diego. But with only two days rest, he was brought into an extra-innings game to pitch four innings of relief. Then four days later, Harang made his next scheduled start. Since that relief job on short rest, Harang is 1-6 with a 7.57 ERA. He recently spent time on the DL with a strained muscle in his forearm.

– None of this helps manager Dusty Baker’s reputation (and a poor one) for handling pitchers.

– Harang’s overall record this season is 3-12, 5.17. We’re talking about a pitcher who went 32-17 with a 3.74 ERA for a losing team over the previous two seasons. Harang faces the Cardinals on Saturday.

– Tonight’s pitcher, Arroyo, has struggled but has a 3.58 ERA over his last 8 starts.

– Sunday’s pitcher, Volquez, has a 5.07 ERA over his last 9 starts but was outstanding his last time out. 

– Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick don’t mind seeing Cincinnati go with three RH starters this weekend. Schumaker is third in the NL with a .346 BA against RH, and Ludwick is fifth in the league against RH with a .323 BA.

– Brad Thompson has a 2.87 ERA as a starter for the Cardinals this season. His ERA as a reliever is 5.10.

Thanks for reading …

-B