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08.19.2008 12:53 pm

The 4 Hole, plus Cards-Pirates Preview

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Hope everyone is having a good day…

Last season the Cardinals were arguably the worst team in the National League in production from the cleanup position in the lineup. The 4 hole was a black hole that swallowed up rallies. With Jim Edmonds, Juan Encarnacion and Scott Rolen receiving most of the turns, the Cardinals were dead last (16th) in the NL in slugging percentage and onbase percentage from the 4 Hole. The lineup slot produced only 20 homers, which ranked 14th, and 103 RBIs, which ranked 10th.  

The situation has improved dramatically this season.

Entering Tuesday’s home game against the Pirates, here’s where the Cardinals rank in the NL in key categories at the 4 Hole:

HR: 4th, with 28

RBI: 6th, with 88

SLG:  3rd, at .520 — an improvement of 134 points from last year’s .386.

OBP: 8th,  at .358 — not great, but an improvement of 38 points from last years .320.

Bottom line: the 2007 Cardinals were 16th (last) in the NL in combined onbase + slugging from the cleanup spot at .706. This season, they’re 6th in OPS  at cleanup, .876.

That’s a big jump in quality. And the credit goes to Ryan Ludwick, and, to a lesser extent, Rick Ankiel.

In 187 ABs as a 4 hitter, Ludwick has 16 homers, 47 RBIs, and is hitting .316 with a .396 OBP and a .636 SLG.

In 191 ABs as a 4 hitter, Ankiel has 10 homers, 34 RBIs, and is hitting .272 with a .352 OBP and a .524 SLG.

Ludwick clearly has emerged as a prominent cleanup hitter.

I say this because Ludwick is No. 2 in the NL in OPS among all No. 4 hitters (minimum of 150 ABs there).

Ludwick’s OPS of 1033 among NL cleanup guys is second to Lance Berkman’s 1156.

– Some who criticize Albert Pujols for his performance with runners in scoring position this season apparently fail to take into account the number of walks he’s receiving in those situations. With RISP, Pujols has drawn the most walks (40) and intentional walks (28) in the majors. With 2 out and RISP, Pujols has the most walks (20) and most intentional walks (14). It’s obvious that the pitchers are being careful about giving Pujols much to hit. Which also explains his .504 OBP with runners in scoring position, second highest in the NL to Berkman (.513). Even with Ludwick coming on strong as a cleanup hitter (when used there) the pitchers prefer going around Pujols. 

– And there’s nothing wrong with Pujols’ RBI total with RISP (47) based on his number of at-bats (only 83).  Pujols entered the season with a career .345 batting average with runners in scoring position. That’s an insanely hight total and there are bound to be fluctuations, eventually. And that’s been the case this season. Pujols is batting .289 with RISP, but that can be attributed to a slow start in that area more than anything. From opening day through May 19, Pujols hit .231 with RISP (5 for 19). But since May 20, he’s batting .341 with RISP (and with a .521 OBP and .591) SLG.

– It’s amazing how spoiled we’ve become by Pujols — the dude doesn’t rip it up with runners in scoring position in his first 19 ABs of the season in those situations, or he has a few bad ABs, and everybody starts screaming, “WHAT’S WRONG WITH HIM?” The answer: nothing. Pujols is leading the NL in slugging and OPS. He’s second in batting average and OBP. He’s No. 1 in the NL in Value Over Replacement (VORP). He’s second in the NL in Win Shares. He’s 7th in the NL in homers per AB. He’s 10th in RBIs per AB.  I could go on….

Some notes about the visiting Pirates:

* The Pirates haven’t won the season series from the Cardinals since 1999 (7-5). But the teams are 6-6 so far in ‘08.

* Ian Snell, who starts for the Pirates Tuesday night, has a huge split in his home/road ERA. At home, the ERA is 3.92. On the road it’s an awful 7.83

* Since June 30, 1B Adam LaRoche is hitting .394 (in 99 ABs) with a .465 OBP and .778 SLG.

* Led by All-Star Nate McLouth, the Pirates outfielders had the best OPS in the league for much of the season. And even now the OFs rank fourth in the NL in OPS, at .853.

 * But the production has tailed off dramatically since the trade exits of of corner outfielders Xavier Nady and Jason Bay.  This month, as a team (not just the OF), the Pirates are last in the NL with a .652 OPS.

* Since trading Bay and Nady, the Pirates are 6-11 and have averaged 2.9 runs per game, with a .241 BA, a .301 OBP and a .351 SLG.

* Pirates starting pitchers have the worst ERA (5.49) in the NL.

* The Pirates overall ERA (5.40) is also the worst in the NL. But the Pirates have done a solid job of closing out games; their save percentage is 6th-best in the NL.

* The Pirates are 11th in the NL in fielding percentage.

Thanks for reading…

-B

8 comments

Comments are closed.

Bernie, could you forward the Ludwick material to La Russa? Thanks. Then maybe he’ll return him to the clean-up spot instead of batting him No. 2.

(Or, does he consider that to be a second No. 3 spot, given his pitcher-bats-8th philosophy?)

— Mike Smith
1:15 pm August 19th, 2008

Mike, I couldn’t agree more. It seemed like Ludwick’s switch to #2 coincided with the start of talk about Ludwick for MVP. It was almost as if skipper wanted to make sure that Ludwick’s stats didn’t get too good. Similar to the hitting the pitcher 8th, the move seems to be to benefit Albert, not necessarily benefit the TEAM!

— mrkid
3:34 pm August 19th, 2008

Thanks, Mike, for commenting.

-B

— Bernie Miklasz
3:39 pm August 19th, 2008

Hey Bernie,

Great article. Check out this Joe Pos blog regarding Pujols’ underratedness if you haven’t already. It’s amazing. http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/08/06/albert-the-underrated/

-Ike

— ikec
4:09 pm August 19th, 2008

Really, when you look at the numbers for AP over the last month he has been tearing it up! In the month of August AP is hitting .317 with five home runs. But his real value is just being in the lineup. He changes how every single batter is pitched to. What do people want from AP? The guy has an elbow that could “pop” any minuet and numerous nagging injuries, but through all of that he has managed to be second in the league in BA and knock out 26 homeruns.

One of the players that the Pirates got in return from Boston for Jayson Bay was Craig Hansen. I’ve seen him throw a few times and I think he has a shot at being a dominant closer or a solid shutout man in his career. He has a slider with some good bite and a good FB. Good entry, Bern….

— emc2013
4:24 pm August 19th, 2008

As always, GREAT stuff Bernie! THANK YOU.

I also think “mrkid” hit on something. I agree mrkid, no one will show up the daddy’s boy.

“ike” thanks for sharing. I checked that site out and it was good reading.

— drelboc
4:46 pm August 19th, 2008

“Ian Snell, who starts for the Pirates Tuesday night, has a huge split in his home/road ERA. At home, the ERA is 3.92. On the road it’s an awful 7.83″

B-Mik, you had to post that stat?! Now he’s going to throw 7+ innings and only give up 2R.

— ExistentialHumanist
5:01 pm August 19th, 2008

Apparently Derrick Gould did too, as he linked to the same Posnanski post in today’s Bird Land.

— ikec
4:09 pm August 20th, 2008