Cardinals: Another September Swoon
For the third consecutive year, the Cardinals are sputtering in September.
They went 12-17 in the final month in 2006, before rallying and reinventing themselves in an October gallop to the World Series championship.
In 2007, they collapsed to a 13-18 mark in September after making a valiant run that got them within a game of first place.
The Cardinals are 4-8 so far this month. But if you want to stretch it out a bit, their 4-11 record since Aug. 29 is the worst in the NL Central.
I was curious to learn just how bad the last three Septembers have been for the Cardinals, relative to other teams. The answer: really bad.
In MLB, only Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Baltimore have a worse winning percentage in Sept. over the last three years.
Here are the NL “September Standings” covering 2006-2008:
1. Phillies … 43-26 … .623
2. Dodgers … 39-30 … .565
3. Astros … 37-29 … .561
4. Rockies … 38-31 … .551
5. Braves … 38-31 … .551
6. Padres … 39-32 … .549
7. Nationals … 35-33 … .515
8. Mets … 35-34 … .507
9. Marlins … 33-34 … .493
10. Cubs … 33-35 … .485
11. D-Backs … 31-36 … .463
12. Reds … 30-36 … 455
13. Brewers … 31-38 … .449
14. Giants … 28-39 … .418
15. CARDINALS …. 29-42 … .408
16. Pirates …. 28-41 … .406
That’s terrible, especially considering Tony La Russa’s reputation for being a strong closer. What are the reasons? Well, it isn’t easy to pinpoint. Of course, the La Russa haters will heap the blame on him. While it’s true that every manager is responsible for how the team plays, targeting La Russa seems like a reach. At least to me, anyway.
The 2006 team opened September with a jumbled situation in the bullpen. Jason Isringhausen opened the month still trying to pitch with a serious hip injury, and ultimately withdrew. By his standards, Chris Carpenter labored some that month (3-2, 3.57) and let a big lead get away in a game at Washington. A bunch of Cardinals pitchers just didn’t throw very well at all late in 2006; the ERAs of Jason Marquis, Randy Flores, Josh Hancock, Izzy, Anthony Reyes, and Tyler Johnson went soaring. Albert Pujols hit (10 HR, 28 RBIs) and should have been the league MVP, but Jim Edmonds had only 15 ABs that month, and guys like Scott Rolen, Juan Encarnacion, Yadier Molina, Chris Duncan and Preston Wilson stopped hitting. The struggles were a collective, across-the-board thing.
In 2007, a September fade wasn’t really surprising, considering the incredibly rough season the team endured. There was the death of Hancock, Encarnacion’s tragic eye injury, the loss of Carpenter. Rolen stopped hitting for power and went on the DL in August, never to return. Molina tried to play on a bad knee that required late-season surgery. Duncan, who was a good hitter for the first half of 2007, suffered a hernia injury that would require surgery. David Eckstein played with considerable back pain. Rick Ankiel stopped hitting after the New York Daily News exposed his past use of HGH. Adam Kennedy was shut down (knee surgery). And then there was the Scott Spiezio soap opera. The 2007 Cardinals fought hard, but couldn’t overcome so much turmoil.
This month, so far, we’ve seen a broken-down team that’s missing key parts — Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus, Molina. Carpenter’s promising comeback attempt was aborted. The rookie outfielder, Joe Mather, was helping out until he went out with a broken hand. Very little worked right in the 0-3 weekend in Pittsburgh — not even the stellar Adam Wainwright. And Ryan Ludwick, one of the most important players in this attack, has seemingly run out of fuel; since Aug. 18 Ludwick is batting .226 with two homers, a .295 OBP, .393 SLG and 26 Ks in 84 at-bats. Kyle Lohse, another key part to the Cardinals’ success, is 1-4 with a 4.92 ERA in his last nine starts.
An overachieving 2008 Cardinals team pushed hard all summer, didn’t receive any reinforcements (other than Felipe Lopez) and just hit the wall.
But if you’re trying to identify the No. 1 factor in the last three sad Septembers, it would have to be injuries.
That answer won’t please many people, but it’s really the most logical and sensible theory.
Here are a few things about the Cardinals-Reds 3-game series, which begins Tuesday night:
* The Reds have won 7 of their last 10 at home.
* The rebuilding Reds are No. 1 in the NL in home runs by rookies (45), and RBIs by rookies (150). The bulk of that has been supplied by Joey Votto (19 HR, 72 RBIs) and Jay Bruce (18-48).
* The Reds are 10-5 this month; only Houston (12-3) has been better in the NL Central.
* Tonight’s starter, Bronson Arroyo, is on a roll: over his last 14 starts he’s 10-3 with a 2.90 ERA and has turned in 11 quality starts.
* Since June 29, Arroyo has as many wins as the other Reds starters combined. He’s 10-3; the other starters are 10-22 with a 5.48 ERA.
* Wednesday’s starter, Aaron Harang, has had a brutal year but his ERA is 2.45 over the last five starts.
* Edinson Volquez (who starts Thursday) is one of the NL’s best pitchers, with a 16-5 record and 3.22 ERA. But since July 20, his ERA is 4.92.
Thanks for reading …
-B


Great minds, big man. Great minds. Was figuring out those Sept. standings this morning and what I wondered was what role “callups” played in this situation. We’ve seen La Russa play with a short bench so often, and now he’s doing it in September. Is there a hesistance to promote players? A hesistance to use promoted players? Not enough worthy players to promote? There’s got to be something there …
One has to agree that injuries are a huge part of it. DG hit on something there too. My thought is that the team plays so hard all year do they just burn out? Does their bodies wear out? Are they so exhausted entering September that they begin to look ahead and become faint hearted because they are exhausted? TLR does a lot of platooning to try and keep everyone fresh. Does it work? Maybe one could do a study on the Astros who are able to go to another gear this time of year. And yet the Phillies and Dodgers are ahead of them. It is mystifying. If they are going to compete with the teams in September they need to figure it out.
I think the problem is that Tony is afraid to use his “big” bats against lefties during the early part of the year. What is the “big” deal with lefties. Larussa thinks they are like kryponite to the Cardinals. I don’t care who you are, if you are in the bigs you should be able to hit left or right handed pitching. How can ankiel, dunc & the like hit lefty’s if they are never in the line up starting when a lefty starts against us. Then when the Cards are hot on the trail all teams have to do is dig up a lefty and they know our big bats will be sitting on the bench. Wouldn’t you rather the team get AB’s against lefty’s early in the season to prepare for the clutch run? Apparently Tony thinks we should wait to get those AB’s in the playoff’s - wait - that hasn’t happened in how many years.??
I wish I had the brain to figure out just how much the Cardinal defense has been affected by guys playing out of position.
The Cards seemingly were winning a lot of games early on based on their pitching and defense. Well, we know what happened to the bullpen, but little has been said about the defensive collapse in the last month or so.
Felipe Lopez has played seven games in left field since coming over, Aaron Miles of all people has played left field, Miles at third, Mather in center, etc etc.
For as little room as the Cardinals had in the outfield when the season began, it seems they can barely run someone out there who has experience in the outfield now.
And Rasmus didn’t get called up why?
I’d been thinking in recent days how in all of my years as a Cardinals fan (since 82), I have never seen the Cardinals BARELY miss the playoffs. They’ve either made the playoffs, been well out of it by the time the stretch drive rolls around, or been right there at the beginning of September only to take a hard nose-dive and finish well out of it. In addition to recent Septembers, 1989 and 2003 come to mind. (Still can’t believe Mike DeJean and Sterling Hitchcock weren’t able to save our pitching staff in 03!!!!)
I suppose it’s preferable to having your heart ripped out on the last day, but this season challenges that idea with all of the what-if’s from blown saves and losing streaks at the hands of bad teams. In the end, all of the what-if’s add up to the fact that this club just was not championship-caliber, but we can be glad we got as much enjoyable baseball out of them as we did this year.
All of these September flame-outs are almost made up for by the 2001 team, which practically went all of September without losing. Now THAT was a fun ride. Too bad they lost on the last day and had to play ARI for the short series. If they hadn’t won it all in ‘06 after the window had seemingly closed on that group, ‘01 is the year that would have stood out to me as the biggest missed opportunity. Great team!
I have no room to speak out considering “my” team, collapsed in the AL East - there is no joy in NY this fall!
The Cards seem to be close to the golden ring season after season but fall short on what is becoming the rule rather than the exception.
for consideration…Is it time for LaRussa to move on or hang it up? I think there is a strong case in favor of that. the “field general” is making too many excuses and dosen’t seem to want to accept responsibility.
More importantly, I wonder about the quality of the physical training, the supervision of the PT, the regimentation of PT and where the trainer is in the collapses? As with the suggested change in field manamgement and that incoudes the coaching staff, there is likely a need to thoroughly revamp the “training” aspcet. After all, there is more to it than showing up early at the ballpark to get a few extra swings in the cage.
Lastly, when it is apparent the phoenix will not rise in the ‘08 season, give the “younsters” a chance to show their stuff. Get a good look at the supporting talent…let these guys play the show and let’s see what we have down the road to keep or trade.
Maybe the sputtering in September can be attributed to not bringing in fresh faces that can make an impact in the dugout. Will Clark comes to mind in 2000 and Larry Walker in 2004. The current players are just mentally beat up. Too many close loses this season. Does anyone really think the Cardinals would have been swept by the Pirates, if the team could have pulled out 3 victories against the Cubs last week?
Great post, Bern. I think you made some excellent points.
In some ways I understand that TLR wants to keep all his players sharp, but I think there are to many better options in LF than Felipe Lopez. He hurt the Cards last night with his play in LF. When the Reds Edwin Encarnacion blew the game open when he crushed Loopers hanging slider into LF. Two runs probably would have scored, but three scored when Lopez over threw two cutoff men. This is only a minor example, and the one extra runb that scored proved not to make a huge difference in the games outcome, but shouldn’t the Cards be using the final two weeks of this season to find out what they have with a player like Stavi. Lopez is not a LF by trade in his defense, but I’d like to find out what Stavi’s potential for 2009 is.
How much of a shot is there that Looper is a Card in 2009? Everything I’ve heard has pointed to the fact that he wants to continue to start. I don’t see him competing with Boggs, Carp, Waino, and possibly Welle for a spot in the rotation, and assuming that CPR (Chris Perez), Motte, and K-Mac make the team there is no need for a RHRP.
As far as the next two games agaisnt Cincy go, these are game the Cards need to win before the Cubs series this weekend. The Reds haven’t helped harang much this year as far as run support. You mention Bruce and Votto. Bruce will get a lot of the attention, but I like Vottos approach to the game.
Tony has had a great career in baseball but the last two years the way he has managed has not lived up to the reputation he has. Again and again he brings relief pitchers in especially left handers that you know will be hit hard. He plays players out of position, bats the pitcher 8th plus other odd moves such as not pinch hitting for the pitcher and then taking him out of the game after he hits, etc. On the major league level you cannot win playing people of of position on a consistence basis and making the moves Tony has made this year. He has over worked McCellan to the point that he is getting hit hard every time he now enters the game. I am not sure that he will ever be the same pitcher that he was before Tony got hold of him and over worked him. To me Tony is the most over rated manager in baseball history. Time is beginning to past Tony by and he need a change and the Cardinals need a change. Hopefully, Tony will take a GM job some time during the off season. If not, we are in for another long season next year and will see the same odd moves that he has made this year.