Cardinals: Another September Swoon
For the third consecutive year, the Cardinals are sputtering in September.
They went 12-17 in the final month in 2006, before rallying and reinventing themselves in an October gallop to the World Series championship.
In 2007, they collapsed to a 13-18 mark in September after making a valiant run that got them within a game of first place.
The Cardinals are 4-8 so far this month. But if you want to stretch it out a bit, their 4-11 record since Aug. 29 is the worst in the NL Central.
I was curious to learn just how bad the last three Septembers have been for the Cardinals, relative to other teams. The answer: really bad.
In MLB, only Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Baltimore have a worse winning percentage in Sept. over the last three years.
Here are the NL “September Standings” covering 2006-2008:
1. Phillies … 43-26 … .623
2. Dodgers … 39-30 … .565
3. Astros … 37-29 … .561
4. Rockies … 38-31 … .551
5. Braves … 38-31 … .551
6. Padres … 39-32 … .549
7. Nationals … 35-33 … .515
8. Mets … 35-34 … .507
9. Marlins … 33-34 … .493
10. Cubs … 33-35 … .485
11. D-Backs … 31-36 … .463
12. Reds … 30-36 … 455
13. Brewers … 31-38 … .449
14. Giants … 28-39 … .418
15. CARDINALS …. 29-42 … .408
16. Pirates …. 28-41 … .406
That’s terrible, especially considering Tony La Russa’s reputation for being a strong closer. What are the reasons? Well, it isn’t easy to pinpoint. Of course, the La Russa haters will heap the blame on him. While it’s true that every manager is responsible for how the team plays, targeting La Russa seems like a reach. At least to me, anyway.
The 2006 team opened September with a jumbled situation in the bullpen. Jason Isringhausen opened the month still trying to pitch with a serious hip injury, and ultimately withdrew. By his standards, Chris Carpenter labored some that month (3-2, 3.57) and let a big lead get away in a game at Washington. A bunch of Cardinals pitchers just didn’t throw very well at all late in 2006; the ERAs of Jason Marquis, Randy Flores, Josh Hancock, Izzy, Anthony Reyes, and Tyler Johnson went soaring. Albert Pujols hit (10 HR, 28 RBIs) and should have been the league MVP, but Jim Edmonds had only 15 ABs that month, and guys like Scott Rolen, Juan Encarnacion, Yadier Molina, Chris Duncan and Preston Wilson stopped hitting. The struggles were a collective, across-the-board thing.
In 2007, a September fade wasn’t really surprising, considering the incredibly rough season the team endured. There was the death of Hancock, Encarnacion’s tragic eye injury, the loss of Carpenter. Rolen stopped hitting for power and went on the DL in August, never to return. Molina tried to play on a bad knee that required late-season surgery. Duncan, who was a good hitter for the first half of 2007, suffered a hernia injury that would require surgery. David Eckstein played with considerable back pain. Rick Ankiel stopped hitting after the New York Daily News exposed his past use of HGH. Adam Kennedy was shut down (knee surgery). And then there was the Scott Spiezio soap opera. The 2007 Cardinals fought hard, but couldn’t overcome so much turmoil.
This month, so far, we’ve seen a broken-down team that’s missing key parts — Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus, Molina. Carpenter’s promising comeback attempt was aborted. The rookie outfielder, Joe Mather, was helping out until he went out with a broken hand. Very little worked right in the 0-3 weekend in Pittsburgh — not even the stellar Adam Wainwright. And Ryan Ludwick, one of the most important players in this attack, has seemingly run out of fuel; since Aug. 18 Ludwick is batting .226 with two homers, a .295 OBP, .393 SLG and 26 Ks in 84 at-bats. Kyle Lohse, another key part to the Cardinals’ success, is 1-4 with a 4.92 ERA in his last nine starts.
An overachieving 2008 Cardinals team pushed hard all summer, didn’t receive any reinforcements (other than Felipe Lopez) and just hit the wall.
But if you’re trying to identify the No. 1 factor in the last three sad Septembers, it would have to be injuries.
That answer won’t please many people, but it’s really the most logical and sensible theory.
Here are a few things about the Cardinals-Reds 3-game series, which begins Tuesday night:
* The Reds have won 7 of their last 10 at home.
* The rebuilding Reds are No. 1 in the NL in home runs by rookies (45), and RBIs by rookies (150). The bulk of that has been supplied by Joey Votto (19 HR, 72 RBIs) and Jay Bruce (18-48).
* The Reds are 10-5 this month; only Houston (12-3) has been better in the NL Central.
* Tonight’s starter, Bronson Arroyo, is on a roll: over his last 14 starts he’s 10-3 with a 2.90 ERA and has turned in 11 quality starts.
* Since June 29, Arroyo has as many wins as the other Reds starters combined. He’s 10-3; the other starters are 10-22 with a 5.48 ERA.
* Wednesday’s starter, Aaron Harang, has had a brutal year but his ERA is 2.45 over the last five starts.
* Edinson Volquez (who starts Thursday) is one of the NL’s best pitchers, with a 16-5 record and 3.22 ERA. But since July 20, his ERA is 4.92.
Thanks for reading …
-B


Great minds, big man. Great minds. Was figuring out those Sept. standings this morning and what I wondered was what role “callups” played in this situation. We’ve seen La Russa play with a short bench so often, and now he’s doing it in September. Is there a hesistance to promote players? A hesistance to use promoted players? Not enough worthy players to promote? There’s got to be something there …