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09.09.2008 3:06 am

Cubs-Cardinals Preview

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As they enter Busch Stadium for a three-game series, the Cubs are trying to bust out of their worst stretch of the season.

They’ve lost seven of their last eight games.

And you know what that means.

I’m not suggesting Cubs fans are worried, or anything, but check out this lead to a story in Tuesday’s Chicago Sun-Times:

Thirty-nine years ago today, a black cat found Ron Santo in the on-deck circle at Shea Stadium in New York, walked around him, then headed through the Cubs’ dugout, past manager Leo Durocher and disappeared under the stands.

Of course, the Cubs’ high hopes during an extraordinary season disappeared right behind the feline. They lost to the New York Mets that night — the sixth of eight straight losses — and the next day, the Mets overtook them in the National League East race for good.

After the Cubs blew a lead in Sunday’s loss to Cincinnati, irate manager Lou Piniella refused to speak to the media, the only time that’s happened this season.

The Cubs’ lead over second-place Milwaukee is down to 4.5 games … and in that regard, the Cubs are fortunate, because the Brewers are also dragging, having dropped six of their last 8.

So what’s gone wrong for the NL’s best team?

* Two frontline starters, Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden, are nursing tender shoulders, though Harden is slated to pitch against the Cardinals on Thursday. It’s a nervous time; if these aces blow up, the Cubs will make a quick disappearance, either now or in October.

* Cubs’ pitching, which was third in the NL with a 3.75 ERA from the start of the season until the end of August, is getting pounded this month. Their 6.29 ERA in September is the NL’s worst. In this 1-7 crash, the bullpen has allowed 24 runs in 27 innings, and Kerry Wood blew a save on Sunday. And setup men Bobby Howry, Neal Cotts and Jeff Samardzija are taking a beating.

* And then there’s underrated reliever Chad Gaudin, who came over in the same deal that sent Harden from Oakland to Chicago. Gaudin hasn’t pitched since Aug. 29 after injuring his back in a bizarre off-field accident; he slipped off a curb and slammed his back on a dumpster.

* In their last seven losses, the Cubs have scored a total of 17 runs.

* Aramis Ramirez, Jim Edmonds, Kosuke Fukudome and Derrek Lee are scuffling.

Ramirez is 5 for his last 33 and is playing with a sore quad.

Fukudome is batting .233 since May 17.

Lee has three homers in 182 ABs since the All-Star break.  

Since homering twice against St. Louis on Aug. 8, Edmonds is 9 for 53 with 15 Ks.

These are just a few of the reasons why the anxiety is spreading on Chicago’s North Side. As we mentioned earlier, this 1-7 slump is being likened to the Cubs’ shocking collapse in 1969, when they went 1-11 in the first two weeks of September and coughed up a 9.5 game lead to the Mets.

And pulling out of this malaise won’t be easy; the Cubs are beginning a season-ending stretch of playing 19 consecutive games against winning teams. And 13 of those final 19 will be on the road.  The Cubs are 19-17 so far this season against their remaining opponents.

All of that said, the Cubs have a lot working in their favor.

The Brewers’ own mettle is being tested. At this point, Milwaukee hardly looks like those late-rushing ‘69 Mets, who went 23-7 in the final month. And there was no wild-card playoff berth in ‘69.

As Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times pointed out, even if the Cubs went 6-13 the rest of the way, the top wild-card contender, Philadelphia, would have to go 13-5 to the Cubs.

Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune — a proud Mizzou grad — offered this entertaining comparison of the Cubs of 2008 against the Cubs of 1969: 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-080908-1969-chicago-cubs,0,1165947.story

Cardinals fans may be tempted to make fun of the Cubs’ current plight, but I doubt that any Cubs fan would be willing to trade the teams’ positions in the standings. Even with the Cubs’ slump, the Cardinals still are 9 games out in the NL Central.

The Cardinals, of course, still cling to the hope of making a comeback bid for the wild card.

As play opens Tuesday, the Cardinals are 4.5 games behind the Brewers and trail the Phillies by 1.5 in the wild-card race.

That’s a lot of ground to make up with only 19 games remaining. While it’s true that the Cardinals have shaved a couple of games off the Brewers’ lead in recent days, last week’s 1-5 road trip through Houston and Arizona really destroyed a great opportunity to dramatically close the gap.

The Cardinals have to win as many games as possible (uh, obviously).

And the Cardinals would be well advised to jump on the Cubs early. This season when the Cubs score first in a game, their record is 60-20. When their opponent scores first, the Cubs are 26-37.

If they can get closer to the Brewers, the Cardinals may be in the strange position of rooting for the Cubs, who will play six games against Milwaukee in the final two weeks.

And Brewers fans surely would like to see the Cardinals help them out by doing some damage to the Cubs. The Cardinals and the Cubs will go at it again in a three-game set at Wrigley Field beginning Sept. 19.

The Brewers also have four games at Philadelphia. The Phillies could help the Cardinals out by beating the Brewers, but by doing so, the Phillies could also put a safe distance between themselves and STL in the wild-card race. Then again, the Phillies are only 1.5 games in back of the Mets in the NL East, so maybe the Mets — and not the Phils — will be pushed into the wild-card derby instead.

The Brewers have 10 games left against teams with a winning record. So far this season the Brewers are 44-21 against losing teams (best in the NL) and 38-41 vs. winning teams.

We’ll be doing a lot of scoreboard watching.

Thanks for reading …

-B 

9 comments

Comments are closed.

Interesting stuff Bernie. What fun it would be to see the Cards put a big win streak together not only for their cause, but to see how the Cubs and Brewers would handle it. A sweep of Chicago could push them off toward that kind of streak…ehhh. I’m always looking for ya Bernie and I am never dissappointed in your work. THANKS!!

— dave cobler
6:40 am September 9th, 2008

Let’s take a look at this: The esteemed Paul Sullivan is coming to town this week. He’s a Mizzou J-school grad. The Mizzou J-school is celebrating its 100th anniversary this week, all week in Columbia. The team Sullivan covers is 100 years removed from winning the World Series. Coincidence?

— Derrick Goold
8:54 am September 9th, 2008

Thanks for commenting, Derrick. Now I know that at least two people read this.

Heck, I’m just grateful that this one is still on display and hasn’t been moved off the sports front yet.

-B

— Bernie Miklasz
11:14 am September 9th, 2008

I guess we better keep the standings marked in pencil. Great read.

— music4585
11:24 am September 9th, 2008

I don’t know if it has already been asked and answered, but since Tony has mixed things up with the line up, specifically having the pitcher bat 8th, why not try having the relievers start the game and the starters finish it? What the heck, it couldn’t hurt at this point. Go Cardinals!

— bobz1975
11:59 am September 9th, 2008

Not since JSL!!! has Bird Land had such a worthy competitor for online traffic as Extra Points, and you bring the blitz daily. I wonder which will give out first …

1. Us.
2. Our computers.
3. The newspaper business.

Ah, gallows humor is all I got, big man.

Now I’m going to shamelessly steal from your missive here for the newsletter. What, gentle reader, you don’t subscribe to the newsletter? Well, let me tell you all about it …

— Derrick Goold
12:20 pm September 9th, 2008

Derrick,

One answer, for me, anyway is this: my own web site.

In development … Soon.

-B

— Bernie Miklasz
12:27 pm September 9th, 2008

As you mentioned, Bernie, the Cubs have legitimate concerns about Zambrano and Harden. Especially Harden. Already this season Harden has thrown more innings than his IP total from ‘06 and ‘07 combined.

As for Zambrano he has thrown a 130 pitch game this season, a 118 pitch game, a 125 pitch game, and a 116 pitch game. With a bullpen like the Cubs have, who would let your pitcher run up the pitch total like this? Just hand the ball to the likes of Wood, Marmol, and Samardzija. While I’m on the Cubs pen, I had not heard of the Gaudin incident. That is indeed “bizaree”!

If Harden of Zambrano go down then the Cubs will go down with them…

Can’t wait for this series important series to beging tonight. I enjoy these series previews. Great info, opinions and stats here as always.

— emc2013
3:24 pm September 9th, 2008

what is all the back and forth about between yourself and Mr. Goold? Something going on at the paper? They are cutting sports columns? No more play on the stltoday website?

— griz_47
3:49 pm September 9th, 2008