Flipping Over Felipe?
I was talking about this on my radio show the other day, and wanted to see what you thought….
Background: I wasn’t thrilled when the Cardinals signed Washington Nationals castoff Felipe Lopez, who brought a lousy rep to St. Louis when signed by the home team on Aug. 6. Lopez had been released by the Nats, and his effort was questioned by the team’s GM. It’s true that Lopez once hit 23 bombs in a season, for the Reds in 2005. But he signed a pretty fat deal and his performance began to deteriorate. Lopez looked done. Or he looked like a guy who just didn’t care.
When GM John Mozeliak signed Lopez, it was the only move made by the Cardinals to counter NL Central acquisitions such as CC Sabathia (Brewers), Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin (Cubs) and Randy Wolf (Astros). And the move wasn’t exactly a thunderclap. No shock waves. It was akin to (as El Diablo, Joe Strauss, would say) a dumpster dive.
At the time, I said that maybe Lopez would benefit from playing for a hard-edged manager like Tony La Russa, who doesn’t put up with malingerers. And that maybe Lopez would wise up and realize that he had to take advantage of this opportunity. I think I mentioned that Cardinald coach Jose Oquendo could be positive influence. I think a few of you mentioned that Albert Pujols would be a potential kick-starter for Lopez.
For whatever the reason, Lopez has played surprisingly well as a Cardinal.
It’s a small sample size and all that, but it’s difficult to sneer at what he’s done so far:
* 29 hits in 69 ABs, .377 BA
* .434 OBP
* .551 SLG
Lopez has displayed some pop, which isn’t common among the current middle-infield population on the roster. Lopez has two homers, two doubles and two triples. He’s stolen three bases in four attempts. He’s been spotted at four positions by La Russa: Second Base (12 appearances), Left Field (6), Shortstop (4) and Third Base (3).
What do we know of his defense?
Well, I checked the game-by-game Zone Ratings at STATS and here’s what I found:
- At SS, eight balls have been hit into his zone, and Lopez recorded eight outs. In other words, he hasn’t missed one he should have gotten to.
- At 2B, not as good: 26 balls hit into his zone, and he’s gotten 18 outs. That’s a Zone Rating of .692. Feel free to disregard Lopez’s small sample size. But Aaron Miles has an .811 ZR at second, and Adam Kennedy’s ZR is .860.
- At 3B, Lopez has gotten outs only three of the five balls hit into his zone. Does not bode well.
- In LF, Lopez has wandered around a bit … according to the Zone Ratings, he’s made outs on only two of the five fly balls hit into his zone. Again: small sample size.
La Russa basically has plugged Lopez into the role once occupied by Scott Spiezio.
Not that it’s a perfect comparison; the Speezer was used at five positions by La Russa. (1B, 3B, LF, RF, a little 2B). But I think you get my point. La Russa loves having guys that he can deploy all over the field, guys who come off the bench and can get their share of extra-base hits, guys who can switch hit to be of service in TLR’s late-inning strategic maneuvers. Lopez, like Spiezio, plays multiple positions — and is a switch hitter, too. Lopez doesn’t have Speezer’s power, but he’s faster. As a Cardinal, Lopez is 8 for 22 vs. LHP (.364), and 18 for 47 vs. RHP (.383.).
OK, so where do we go from here?
Questions:
@ Have you seen enough positives from Lopez to want him back in a Cardinal uniform in 2009?
@ If so, do you think he’s capable of being a desired starter at SS or 2B?
@ Given his past history of apparent indifference, do you dare give Lopez a two-year deal?
@ One year and a team option for a second?
@ Or is this goodbye? See ya?
My quick opinion: I think Lopez has a shot to be a consistent and useful player again, because of the various factors: winning team, Manager TLR, teammates who push. Would I make the leap for anything beyond a 1-and-option type deal worth around $1 million or $1.5 million per season? Probably not.
Express yourselves.
Interested in your thoughts.
***
While you mull that one over, here’s an update (not exactly a preview) of the Florida Marlins, who on Friday night open a 3-game weekend series at Busch. When the Cardinals went to FLA for a four-game set starting Aug. 11, the Marlins were 62-56 and only 2.5 games out of first in the NL East. They’ve slumped, losing 13 of the last 22, and find themselves 8 out in the division, and 9 out in the wild card, with a record of 71-69.
The strikeout meter continues to click at a fast rate… like a toll booth on FLA’s I-95 …
During this 9-13 stretch, Florida hitters have struck out an impressive (no, really) 174 times in 22 games, an average of nearly 8 Ks per game. They have fanned 1,193 times this season, most in the NL. And at the current season rate of 8.52 Ks per game, the Marlins are on a pace to finish with 1,380 strikeouts. And that would put them high up on the list of NL teams that struck out the most in a season.
The Top Five:
1. 2001 Brewers, 1,399
2. 2004 Reds, 1,335
3. 2007 Marlins, 1,332
4. 2003 Reds, 1,326
5. 2004, Brewers, 1,312
Three of TLR’s teams made the top (or is it the bottom?) 25 for most Ks in a season:
1,253 whiffs in 2000;
1,202 Ks in 1999;
1,191 in 1997
I’ll probably be adding a few more notes during the late-morning hours on Friday…
thanks for reading…
-B
I personally try to look at the big picture and not just the single player. First I would like to say I agree with almost everyone on the fact we need an upgrade at either SS or 2B or both. To look at the overall picture we are losing these players and their contracts (unless we resign them): Izzy, Looper, Lohse, Encarnacion, Izturis, Miles, Mulder and Springer. So we will obviously have some money to spend but also many holes to fill.
Lets start with what we have:
1B and 3B is locked with Pujols and Glaus
2B - We have Kennedy signed thru 09 and I am not opposed to seeing him get a majority of the time at 2B next year IF we upgrade other positions. We have Barden who could potential make an impact here as well.
SS - We have Ryan that will get some looks at SS but we need a legit starter as I see Ryan filling the role of Miles if we don’t re-sign Miles.
OF - We have so many candidates for the OF role next year I’m not sure I can name them all…but I will try. I also think if we have any MLB ready bargaining chips it is definitely in the OF. These guys will be in the mix: Ankiel, Ludwick, Duncan, Schumaker, Rasmus, Mather, Barton, Stavinoha and Jon Jay. We have some other guys but none that I feel will be MLB ready.
SP - Wainwright, Carpenter, Pineiro (if we use him as a SP), Wellemyer (maybe), ?
RP - LHP: Johnson, ? RHP: Perez(possible closer), Franklin, Motte(he may not start in the MLB but will be here soon enough),Thompson(will be long relief), McClellan(I don’t see them throwing him in the rotation next year), Kinney
Other players to consider for 09 roster: Garcia, Boggs, Parisi(assuming he doesn’t end up needing Tommy John), M. Worrell(maybe), T. Greene, Mortensen
So looking at this breakdown what are the team needs. Here are my top 3 or 4 which have been discussed by many others on many sites so I am not coming up with a scientific discovery here:
1) At least 1 SP if not 2….1 of them needs to be at least a good #3 type guy
2) At least a SS if not a 2B as well(as stated before I would rather go after a upper tier SS and keep Kennedy at 2B).
3) A LHP specialist for the bullpen
4) Another solid 7 or 8th inning reliever (am hopefully a guy that has closer experience in case Perez implodes…even though I am a big Perez fan as a closer)
5) A big bat (this could come from any position besides corner infield really.
Now you have to look at potential guys to fill these holes in the FA market(assuming teams don’t resign these players):
SS/2B - There are really only 2 guys that could have a big enough impact to justify spending money on them this offseason - Furcal and O-Dawg. Hell that could be our MI tandem though! We may need to make a trade to get a SS/2B though…rumor has it Furcal will resign with Dodgers.
SP - Lets be realistic here as well…Sabathia is not an option! Sheets(We have too many guys coming off injuries to make me feel good about going after him and his snagging injuries every year), Burnett(I think if we go after someone aggressively that could be a #3 or better Burnett is my choice. He has proved to be healthy and dominant at times…I am sure some would disagree with me on this one though), Byrd(this might be a good sign for the right price), Fogg(not high on him), Colon(no thx), Garland(I think he would be a great fit in STL and would be a great #3 type pitcher…now his price tag may be very high), Dempster(no thx…career year gets him stupid money in offseason), Lohse(resigning him…but his price tag will be too high for what his worth will be), Oliver and Odalis Perez (PLEASE NO ON EITHER ONE!), Wolf(For the right price Wolf would be a great #3 type guy), Rogers(I hope not), there are many others but I try to look at pitchers that could be a #3 type guy that would be a good fit. My personal choice is go get Burnett and try to get Wolf or Garland…backup plan Byrd.
RP - There are plenty of specialists (AKA LHP Specialists) and non-backend of the bullpen type guys. As I stated before I think we need to find at least one back of the bullpen type guy that has closer experience. That leaves Fuentes, K-Rod(UHH…HIGHLY DOUBTFUL!), Wood(doubtful as he will want to close wherever he signs), Lyon(this may be a guy that we could get for reasonable money), Torres(if Brewers don’t pick up his option), Everday Eddie(not ideal but if all else fails)…and then the slew of guys I hope we won’t even think about pursuing…AKA Gagne! My take is go after Fuentes(even though someone will outbid us for him), Lyons and a fallback option of Everday Eddie….may need to make a trade though to get someone to fill this void.
Big Bat: This is a rich market for big bats…hopefully we can land one. I am not including guys with options as it is highly likely big name bats options will be picked up or a renegotiate contract. ManRam(not a Cardinal type guy and too pricy), Vlade(doubtful), Bradley(not a character type guy…but very good upside), Burrell(he is such a liability in the OF…kind of like Duncan!), Dunn, Baldelli(doubtful and always injured), Abreu(almost guaranteed he resigns with Yanks), Ibanez(this guy doesn’t get enough hype or credit…he would be a great addition to the club), Juan Rivera(he has alot of pop and his upside is very good…30 HR guy…he obviously didn’t have a great yr though). There are others but these are impact type bigger bats. My preference is to go after Ibanez or Bradley…I think the hard nosed manager and veteran stars (AKA Pujols and Glaus) will keep Bradley’s temper in check.
These are just my thoughts…and if your still reading my post I will be surprised as it was long and drawn out. But I hope they try to snag Lopez with a 1yr deal and have him play a utility and fill in as a starter if someone goes down. GO CARDS!
Free Ron Gant.