The Strange NL Central
What the heck is going on here?
The Cubs were invincible … only not so much.
Those cocksure Brewers had finally arrived … except now they’re backing up.
The Cardinals were finished (and I said so) … except now they’re alive again.
The Astros were off the radar screen … and now they’re the hottest team in baseball and back in contention.
(Late-afternoon update: the Brewers rallied to defeat the Reds 4-3 at Miller Park; Milwaukee can exhale for a few hours).
Through Tuesday night, the Cubs have lost 8 of 9, and manager Lou Piniella is fuming. The Cubs, however, have a big cushion in their positioning for the playoffs. They lead the second-place Brewers by 5 games, but the key number is 7.5 games … that’s because the Cubs have a 7.5 game lead over the Phillies in a potential wild-card scenario. So even if the Cubs should continue to falter, and lose first place to the Brewers, they’re in firm shape to make the playoffs. Especially with Rich Harden returning to the rotation Thursday, and Carlos Zambrano scheduled to start Saturday in Houston.
The talk of the Brewers overtaking the Cubs doesn’t have strong legs, because the Brewers have been so shaky before getting a win on Wednesday. Manager Ned Yost has once again raised the doubts about his ability to get a talented team to the finish line, running strong. The Cubs left a huge opening, but the Brewers haven’t taken advantage. With the pressure squeezing them tighter, they went gone 2-8 on the current homestand. Things should calm down a bit after the Brew came back from a 3-1 deficit to salvage Wednesday’s series finale with the Reds. But what about the Milwaukee offense? Going into Wednesday, the Brewers were hitting .216 in September and had scored 24 runs in the nine games. (Make it 28 in 10 games now). Through Tuesday, Prince Fielder was 5 for 30 this month, with no homers. Ryan Braun was one RBI this month. Bill Hall was batting .125 this month; Mike Cameron was at .120. And Corey Hart, at .194 and two RBIs, wasn’t much better. How can a lineup slump this badly when it is equipped with so many robust hitters? A mystery. And now Brewers head out on a 10-game road trip that starts with four in Philadelphia.
As for the Cardinals … we know the storylines. Albert Pujols is gunning for the MVP. The rotation has been very good, with a 3.17 ERA since Aug. 2. Felipe Lopez (.380 BA as a Cardinal) has provided an unexpected lift. But it’s never easy in STL, and there are new injury concerns — this shoulder thing with 3B Troy Glaus is not minor. He could be done. Will the bullpen hold up and not give away any more games? The Cardinals can’t afford to slip. The Cardinals had trimmed Milwaukee’s wild-card lead from 6.5 to 4 games as the Cards and Cubs prepared to go at it Wednesday night. But can the Cardinals put together a torrid streak and keep winning? They’re 25-23 since the All-Star break, and that pace won’t do. They can’t blow any more saves. They need more from Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick. Their starters can’t fall apart. Someone (Lopez?) has to provide production from the 3B spot. The margin for error is slim.
Besides, if the Cardinals stumble, even just a little, the Astros may well overtake them.
Houston is the most interesting team in the NL Central right now.
The Astros have the NL Central’s best record since the All Star break (34-16). They are 24-8 in their last 32 games, and have won 12 of the last 13.
Where the heck did this come from? This is a team that lost slugger Carlos Lee (100 RBIs) for the season to a fractured wrist broken finger in early August, but they keep rolling. This is a team that lost their hottest hitter, Ty Wigginton, who had 11 homers and 27 RBIs in August. But over the weekend, Wigginton was placed on the 15-day DL with a strained groin. Didn’t matter; Astros keep racking up the Ws. They’re also doing without injured 2B Kazuo Matsui — but David Newhan stepped in and has batted .291 over the last month. Others have filled the void: Hunter Pence got hot, and Darin Erstad got hot, Geoff Blum got hot.
And then there’s this other fellow, Lance Berkman. He’s also making an MVP push, having reached 100 RBIs for the season in Tuesday’s win over the Pirates. Over this 24-8 stretch, the Astros lead the NL in slugging, and are fourth in runs, and in the 32 games Berkman has 23 RBIs and is batting .330 with a .624 SLG.
Pitching? You bet. The Astros are 8-1 in games started by trade-deadline acquisition Randy Wolf, and Roy Oswalt is healthy and firing bullets again. Now comes more adversity; starter Wandy Rodriguez strained an oblique over the weekend and will be scratched from his scheduled start vs. the Cubs this weekend. Brandon Backe hasn’t been healthy, either, but Alberto Arias (age 24) was slotted in, and he has a 1.93 ERA in 18 IP. Unlike the Cardinals, Brewers and Cubs, the Astros have not been squandering games late. During the 24-8 run, closer Jose Valverde is 14 for 14 in saves, and he’s allowed only six hits and one run in 14.2 innings. And while the move for Wolf has gotten the most attention, GM Ed Wade pulled off another good deal, picking up reliever LaTroy Hawkins. He’s been very effective, so far.
You keep waiting for the Astros to cool down, and feel the loss of Lee and Wigginton and others, but it just hasn’t happened.
The good news for Cardinals fans is that their team is 4 out in the wild card race.
But the bad news is, the Astros are only 4.5 out in the wild card.
And look at the Astros remaining schedule:
* 2 more left in the current home series against Pittsburgh, which is 16-34 since the All Star break.
* 3 against the Cubs at home this weekend.
* 3 @ Pittsburgh, which has lost 18 of the last 25.
* 3 at home vs. Cincinnati, which is playing much better, having won 8 of 11.
* 3 at home vs. Atlanta, which is 31-53 since June 6.
In terms of schedule, the Astros have the most advantageous route to scooting in for the wild-card.
That’s why the Cardinals can’t afford to lose many more games … not only are they trying to catch the teams ahead of them in the wild card (Milwaukee and Philadelphia) but they have the Astros all but climbing their backs.
It’s been a crazy season in the NL Central, and the craziest part may be still ahead of us…
Enjoy tonight’s Cubs @ Cardinals game, and thanks for reading…
-B
Bernie — What’s the deal with the Cards roster right now? I see Johnson as the third catcher; why wouldn’t they bring up Anderson? Why does 38 year old Villone continually get trotted out there to walk a left-handed hitter? He should be released. Remember the youth movement? Where are Freese, Hoffpauir, and others? Even Wallace? Shouldn’t they at least get a look at the majors on the expanded roster? They brought up Barden but aren’t treating several others the same. It seems like the guys I mentioned, and maybe others, could help. If they need to be on the 40-man roster, there seems to be dead weight there to me, ex: Johnson, Jiminez, and others. Thanks for your comments, as always.
If the Cards want to make a run of this Luddy needs to hit on one of those streaks where everything he sees he hits to the gap. Luddy has hit .290 in Sept.
Bernie-that was a great comeback win against the Cubs last night,but the Cardinals won’t make it to the playoffs because the bullpen sucks so bad.No doubt the NL central is tougher than ever,and the Cardinals are going have to “buck up” to compete next year.
HURRICANE IKE is yet another factor for the astros. it could well play havoc in houston. where would they play if minute maid is damaged? what about their homes and families? i feel for the astros if any of this comes to pass. it could ruin a promising fall. because i pull for the cards i still would hate to see the astros season effected.
The loss of Ankiel and Glaus really effects the club from a power stand point. Mather is out. One has to wonder if a guy like Coby Rasmus could be of help in times like these. Maybe he has’nt earned a call up, but with the injuries such as they are he might be a guy the Cards could use right now.
I love the excuses regarding the fact that the cardinals are behind the astros simply because of a closer. I mean, if the astros just had one extra starting pitcher, they would have won 2 extra games in september and overtaken the cardinals in 2006. There would be no world series! Oh, and I guess if Clemens had taken just one more injection in 2004, he would have beaten Suppan in Game 07 and again, no world series for the cardinals. Everyone has excuses! Bottom line is that Drayton had confidence in his team. He showed it by picking up Wolf and Hawkins. The astros starting playing inspired baseball since.
When is the last time the cardinals have played atleast average in September? Lets see, last year they lost what 9 in a row to get knocked out of the race. In 2006, they had the near collapse. This is normal. Excuses, excuses, excuses. The astros didnt pick up a ridiculous option on a washed up closer (Izzy). Instead they made an agressive trade for a pretty solid closer. (Valverde) The astros had lead the NL in blow saves last year. They knew Lidge needed a change. So they actually did something about it! I have a feeling the cardinals are not going to spend a dime on a closer. Its going to be an “open competition” for the closer role. They will sign some washed up reliever or someone coming off major arm surgery. These guys will compete with Motte, Perez, and Franklin for the closers role.