I don’t think you should have put the Astros in on this conversation.

After the 2004 Series all Tim Purpura talked about was the glut of talent wanting to be part of the Houston Astros. He made it sound like free agents would be fighting over roster spots. If that was true, he blew it. The team went backwards after 2004. Then Houston brings in Ed Wade??? (I don’t understand why MLB and other pro-sports team use so many recycled executives. If I got fired for flat out poor job performance doing a very public job, I don’t imagine being rehired for the same job.)

I don’t care what any analyst tries to claim, Tejeda is on the downside of his career. 13 HR’s and decent defense from a guy who just time warped forward a couple years in age is worth multiple players? I’d say Andy McPhail fleeced them. And Lidge for, what Michael Bourn? And could you honestly keep from calling ownership insane if they had given Lee that money? Yeah the guy hits like Mike Tyson bites ears: hard. But you want him on the field? I’m not calling him Chris Duncan, but I don’t see it as wise to be splurging on a guy that’s pretty one dimensional. He’s not going to run and/or win Gold Gloves. Don’t get me wrong. I would LOVE to have the guy on our team. Just not for his price tag.

So sure, the Astros have been active, but I don’t think they’re much better than they were in any previous season. And I don’t think they’ve set themselves up for success in the coming years either. I see them as a team with some outstanding players in their prime and some still producing veterans, but not enough talent around them to take advantage of it.

I will give you Valverde though. That was a steal.

And by the way, don’t ever admit the Cubs are better than the Cardinals, even if they are, in any context, ever. The Cubs suck and will always suck. Until they win another World Series title they are garbage and everyone knows it. That’s why they’re a story every time they make the playoffs. Because nobody can believe such a garbage organization might actually win something. But they never do. They’re a joke. Oh, they’re 10 games ahead of us? Well we’re 8 World Championships ahead of them. So **** off Chicago, you still suck. Win the Series and you will still suck. The Cubs are the only team in pro-sports that can win a championship and still suck. That’s how much they suck. Oreck should be selling them.

I have to admit though, I am jealous of the Brewers supremely talented youth. They’ve got good players with their best years still ahead of them and for at least the rest of 2008, an insanely scary pitching staff. But even they have some problems coming up. Sheets and Santana are both free agents this year. Can they really recover if they lose both of them? Maybe, I really don’t know what they have in the wings as far as pitching goes. But I can’t imagine them having the arms to make up for losing their number 1 and 2 starters.

I’m sorry St. Louis, but I really don’t think the Cards have missed out on signing or trading for anyone. I don’t think we’re really at the place yet to give away any young talent for one more expensive piece. The Brewers were a CC away from being serious contenders. The Cardinals are a couple, not just one player away from seriously contending for a title. And I think free agency can really cripple a team if they overspend on multi-year deals. Someone better always comes along unless it’s not Pujols or Santana you’re looking at. My only beef with the Cards is how bad they let our minors get before deciding to do something about it. But even on that front, St. Louis drafted some pretty big talent, even if it was sparse. Aside from Pujols, remember what an amazing prospect Ankiel was as a pitcher, now as a hitter. I know he’s played like junk this year, but Chris Duncan is a serious bat when healthy. And Molina is turning into one of the best catchers we’ve ever seen. So it’s not like we’re the Kansas City Royals over here.

I get it. We want to win and we’re in fourth place. It literally depresses me. I watch ESPN and cringe every day when they flash the standings. But I think this is one case where you can’t judge a team by the standings. The Cardinals are right on track I think.

And that’s saying a lot. You should have heard my in ‘07. I talked about our team like they were the Cubs. Well, not that bad. Maybe like they were the Pirates. (Yeah that’s right. I respect the worst team ever, i.e. the Pirates for the last 16 years, more than the Cubs.)

All I’m saying is, lets not clamor for action by the front office in September. If May rolls around and we’re sitting on the same lineup and bullpen, clamor away. But preemptive criticism seems a little bit too New York Yankees for me.

In that post before, I said Sheets and Santana were free agents to be.

I meant Sheets and Sabathia.

Sorry. You probably read that and became enraged over what an idiot I was, ranting and not even knowing WTF I’m talking about.

Sorry.

You are far from an idiot, my friend. To the contrary… your comment made me re-think my initial casting of the Astros. Thank you. Excellent thoughts by you.

You win that one (Astros) …

Now we will have a race to see who can stay up later.

-B

All very good points, Bernie (and Slartibartfast - well done).

Honestly, I don’t think any of us expected the Cardinals to blaze a trail to the World Series this year. With the turning over of the roster, I think the best I was really expecting was a .500 season. Sure, I’ve been a Cards fan for 25 years, and I really hoped for more, but my head told me that probably wasn’t coming this year.

The thing I keep coming back to is the surplus the team is going to have this year. Assuming they don’t pick up Izzy’s option (does anybody actually believe they will?), there’s another pretty sizable chunk that’s going to roll off. Now, I’m not saying they can go out and spend like an AL East team, but they should have a decent bank to work with.

Having said that, I’ve never been a big fan of going out and just buying players over and over. Clearly DeWitt and the St. Louis ownership group isn’t big on that either - Just ask Walt Jocketty. I do believe, however, that sometimes that’s the best option for a situation. Sometimes you just don’t have the pieces you need to put the puzzle together. With the farm system just now reaching acceptable levels again, this actually makes sense. You’re going to have some holes you have to fill, and a rookie from AAA or AA isn’t always the best option.

I believe when it comes to the middle infield, you have to go shopping. Adam Kennedy plays a solid second base, and Cesar Izturis plays a very solid shortstop. The guys just don’t have the “pop” at the plate. Is Felipe Lopez the answer? I wouldn’t say so. Sure, he’s shown promise since being picked up, but how many times has that happened? Maybe you give him a 1-year deal and use him in place of Miles, but with the consistency Miles shows - if not the power - I can’t see how you’d trade a known quantity for an unknown one.

The bullpen is obviously the big one. With Izzy likely to rotate out of St. Louis, there are definitely options for the bullpen. What’s most amazing to me is that the Cardinals could fill the ‘pen primarily with rookies, and probably not do as bad as they have this season. McClellan, Perez, Garcia, and Motte have all shown a lot of promise. (Granted, the first 2 more than the last 2). I believe Russ Springer has probably shown he can pitch effectively for at least another year. What’s the deal with Randy Flores? With the complete lack of lefties the Cards have, it’s a shame he can’t seem to throw strikes anymore. Finding a pair of left-handed pitchers to go along with Villone (maybe?) will be the biggest challenge.

It might be time to find a place for pitchers like Brad Thompson and Kelvin Jimenez. With Looper and Lohse set to be free agents, you also have a few spots to shore up in the rotation. If you can’t resign them, I almost think you have to go for a top tier starter. I don’t see how they can put McClellan into the rotation with Carpenter, Wainwright, Wellemeyer and Piniero (?) and say you’re set for the season. What happens if (when?) one of those ends up with an injury? Do you start up the redeye from Memphis again and shuffle in minor league pitchers? I don’t think you can do that and expect to be truly competitive. Just look what it did this year.

In the end, yeah, the Cubs and Brewers are considerably better in ‘08 than our beloved Cardinals. I’d have a real hard time with that if I wasn’t prepared for this to be kind of a transition season. I have second guessed LaRussa as much as anybody, but I can say with no reservations that this has been one of the more exciting teams I’ve ever watched. They’ve certainly made 2008 a year to remember.

Now, I just hope the Cubs don’t go off and win the World Series and make it a year I’d like to forget.

Actually if you consider the fact Carlos Lee has been out of their lineup for an extended period of time this year, it would appear the Astros are actually a slightly better team than the Cards. What would they have been able to do with him in their line up.

I just think the Cards have an overrated opinion of their young talent.By inflating the talent of the young guys it keeps fans anticipating their arrival. They will not trade them because other clubs do not feel they are as talented so they are not drooling to make a deal for them. Also, their salaries are on the cheap side so the Cards keep them and continue to build them up so the fans hang around waiting. Let’s face it none of the players they have brought up in the last two years have set the league on fire except for Ankiel. He is still a work in progress at this point besides being hurt. Right now he is a dead pull hitter and the pitchers are pitching him that way. If you watch closely most of them give him nothing on the inner half of the plate unless they make a mistake. Almost every pitcher is pitching him outside and he still trys to pull everything. The results have been less than specatular. To add to it he is hurt and that compounds his problems. The rest of the bunch they have brought up have been average at best.

I think your recent thoughts on Colby are probably correct. TLR and his coaches have seen a thousand guys like this come along in their careers. TLR and his coaches have that uncanny ability to read a player. Stats do not always tell how a guy is going to perform in the Majors. There is also a determining factor of how guys respond under pressure and to the hype. Colby didn’t seem to respond to well this year about all the hype and the pressure as he moved up the ladder in the minors. My guess is TLR and his coaches have noticed a chink in Colby’s make up that they don’t like. The organization has built him up larger than life and he doesn’t have an AB in the bigs yet. I have seen hundreds of guys like this never do a thing in the Majors after being touted so highly. Hopefully he will be everything they claim him to be for the Cards. But at this point I agree with your origianl thoughts…trade him now and get something for him. TLR does not seem to have faith in him so he probably will never make it here if the manager/coaches don’t have faith in him.
But you are correct in saying the Cards have let the rest of the division catch and pass them up talent wise. They need to spend money on players that will help them win-not just spend money for the sake of spending. At this piont the jury is still out on the new front office people. Mo needs to show that he is at least Walt’s equal when it comes to putting together a winner. We’ll see how that works out.

Hopefully they will get things corrected down there for next year. God knows they should have enough money to put together a winner agian!

I’m not gonna lie…I’m pretty stoked knowing something I said about sports actually made sense to a sports journalist. Thanks for making my day Bernie.

And you’re absolutely right about the closer situation in your update. Even with half those wins we look a lot more like a playoff team.

The closer situation for next season is tricky to me. I don’t see any way Izzy comes back. I could see the Cards bringing him back for cheap and not as the closer, but I don’t see him going for that.

But I’m torn between the idea of Chris Perez closing games and the Cardinals signing a closer. The thing is, I don’t think I’m any more sold of Fuentes as a closer than Perez; I am however, sold on him as dependable reliever we should at least make a run at. Villone and Flores clearly are not the answer from the left side.

K-Rod will be the sexy pick for every team needing a closer, and no team needs one more than St. Louis. But he is going to get paid. And I don’t mean just a salary. He’s might try for something in the area of the Florida Marlins payroll. But if Mo can make it happen for absolutely no more than 3 guaranteed years, it might be worth it. And honestly, I’d hate to pay him for more than 2. Especially if Perez ends up being able to handle the job. Still a big IF to me at this point.

Whatever the Cards settle on though, it’s hard to imagine it being much worse than the 9th inning situation this year.

@ Nocturnal about Lopez, and the rotation

I’d actually be okay signing Lopez for one year. I don’t think he should be assumed a starter, but St. Louis has had an energizing effect on players before and he seems to be a guy that is able to elevate his game in this environment. I’d like to see the middle infield start with Lopez, Ryan and Miles next season, and would plug in any extra spot(s) from Memphis or outside the organization. Kennedy has to go. It’s just not the fit both sides hoped for when he signed. Izturis has been okay, but not really good enough at the plate to bring back.

As for the rotation, I think Lohse may actually be the answer for next season. He’s been solid this season and the coaches seem to like him. Hopefully Carpenter will finally be healthy and we’ll have a two headed monster between him and Wainwright. Lohse as the number 3 sounds pretty good to me. I’d really like to see us drop Pineiro. Sorry, I just think the guy is no good. He’s a 3 or 4 inning starter. I’d start Thompson or Garcia over him. And Wellemeyer should have a spot reserved in the rotation next season after a very successful run as starter this year.

What I really really really want to see in St. Louis, besides a rock solid closer, is another consistent threat at the plate. I’m not dissing Glaus or Ludwick or Ankiel. But Glaus is streaky, this is Ludwick’s only healthy and productive Major League season, and Ankiel is still a work in progress. I’m glad LaRussa is pushing for improvement.

I think the team could win with a revamped bullpen. But you add another bat to that and the Cardinals would look seriously dangerous.

Morning all.
Good points all,on the future for the redbirds,but I’d like to throw something out there.In want of another bat,might I suggest Matt Holliday?I’ve always loved his game.He’s still young,28,and provides a consistent bat and glove, and surprising speed (26 SB’s this year).Good power numbers,and better than average KO to BB ratio.
I know his name was bantered about earlier this season,and I got the impression that the Rockies were looking to get cheaper.I couldn’t find any info on his contract situation,other than his current status($9,500,000).
If Colorado is indeed looking to trim payroll,perhaps we could package Ryan Ludwick in a deal.Now don’t get me wrong,I love what Ludwick has done for us this year,and even the most cockeyed optimist could not have foreseen the production he’s provided.However,even if his injury history is behind him,I’m just not convinced that he can repeat the year he’s currently enjoying.The fact that he makes under $500,000 should appeal to the Rockies,and his potential at Coors Field cannot be ignored.
I realize that on paper,at least as far as yhis year goes,it might appear that we’d be paying $9,000,000 for the same production,but I don’t think that’s the case.With Holliday,his track record is exemplary,a solid contact hitter with power,just entering his prime.As for Ludwick,we can’t be sure that he can match this year’s production,let alone surpass it.Perhaps moving him(with a couple other pieces),would be prudent.His value will never be higher.
Plug Holliday into left,bat him behind El Hombre,and decide between Ankiel/Glaus for 5 and 6.We wouldn’t be sacrificing any defense,and we’d get that consistent bat in the cleanup spot.

Great column Bernie, it seems you are right on, as usual. I have to say, I am a Cubs’ fan from Chicago-land, and I found out about you because I looked for and found your paper and your columns after wanting to read St. Louis papers following Cub victories over the Cardinals. But I have kept reading your stuff because you are just such a damned good columnist. I understand the Slartibartfests of the world, but it is cool too that many Cardinals fans are really pretty polite people, and good baseball fans. I admit that I “hate” the Cardinals, but I do admire the organization. Obviously, they have been a great organization for many years. I don’t think it is fair to go too overboard with the “Cubs suck” thing, though. Admittedly, they have not won any championships, but the Cubs have had their share of success since their good ‘84 team. Anyway, thanks for the great writing, it is not easy to find good sports columnists.

Very good writeup and great comments so far. I will throw my 2 cents in as well. I am also on the bandwagon of not giving subpar talent upper end money and 4-5 yrs. They “might” and I mean “might” help you out for a year or 2…but then there is so much wasted money in the final 2-3 yrs and most teams just end up eating it. Not a good business model. If you are a team like the Brewers that has only won a single title and it has been over 30 yrs ago and all the suffering they have done in Milwaukee over the year and you decide that you need one more piece to put you into a serious contender for the WS ring…then you do it. I praise the Brewer’s Org for making that move. We are the St. Louis Cardinals and we are always in the hunt for a Division title and always considered one of the better teams in the NL (even though the press will only focus on the teams on the coasts for obvious reasons). We have a team that I felt like we could have added a player or 2 at the deadline to at least give us a chance to get a little better and if that didn’t do it then so be it. With that said I was never for going after the big acquisition and giving up 3-4 strong prospects (and at least 1 top tier prospect) for a rent a player. We have a very strong nucleus and will be dropping over $30 million in payroll after the year. We have obvious needs and this is the time (offseason) ownership can show that they are dedicated to the team and winning. In the past it was “we tried to get upgrades but nothing fell in the right direction…or we didn’t feel it necessary to make a deal because of XYZ”. In the past we haven’t had so many holes that it would kill us to not make a move…this coming year that is not the case. With 1-2 SP’s, a SS and/or 2B with some sort of offensive, lefty specialist and another reliever hopefully with closer experience (in case Perez faulters) I think it is fair to say sitting back and signing a couple of guys with the quality of Cesar Izturis is just not acceptable. We should focus our money on one SP that is at least good enough to be a #3 or better (my preference is Burnett assuming he ops out) and a SS that can bring offensive presence (Furcal maybe?). Then fill in the pieces around them.

As far as the other teams in our division and the division competition…we have went from the laughing stock NL division (which makes no sense as so many wildcards have come from the NL Central) to one of if not the most talented divisions in all of baseball. It will take 90+ wins every year to win this division from now on. The Cubs will have a good nucleus for a number of year…the Brew Crew still has alot of minor league talent and they will make that one or 2 free agent signing to stay very competitive (and don’t forget Gallardo will be back next year and he is a legit ace). As far as the Stros…man oh man I am happy not to be a Stros fan! They seem to spend alot of money and make trades that move alot of minor league talent on talent that is not that great. I have been a fan of Tejeda’s in the past but he is definitely on the downside of his career, Lee (as mentioned before) is a one dimensional player and they overpaid dearly for him, they have no SP’s outside of Oswalt (and without pitching you will never win championships), they have a extremely depleted farm system so no immediate help on the way. They don’t have many things to look forward to and I will put money on they will not make the playoffs this year.

A little rambling but all in all I think I got my point across. I am proud to be a Cards fan and for all the bashing ownership gets for not making the “big” deals or signing each year I am extremely happy we rarely waste money on big multi year deals that will kill an organization. For the most part (and there have been some bonehead trades and signings over the years) the Cards Org has done a great job on getting an extremely competitive team. In my mind #1 offseason need….bring back Dave Duncan. What a savior he has been.

GO CARDS!

I love the excuses regarding the fact that the cardinals are behind the astros simply because of a closer. I mean, if the astros just had one extra starting pitcher, they would have won 2 extra games in september and overtaken the cardinals in 2006. There would be no world series! Oh, and I guess if Clemens had taken just one more injection in 2004, he would have beaten Suppan in Game 07 and again, no world series for the cardinals. Everyone has excuses! Bottom line is that Drayton had confidence in his team. He showed it by picking up Wolf and Hawkins. The astros starting playing inspired baseball since.

When is the last time the cardinals have played atleast average in September? Lets see, last year they lost what 9 in a row to get knocked out of the race. In 2006, they had the near collapse. This is normal. Excuses, excuses, excuses. The astros didnt pick up a ridiculous option on a washed up closer (Izzy). Instead they made an agressive trade for a pretty solid closer. (Valverde) The astros had lead the NL in blow saves last year. They knew Lidge needed a change. So they actually did something about it! I have a feeling the cardinals are not going to spend a dime on a closer. Its going to be an “open competition” for the closer role. They will sign some washed up reliever or someone coming off major arm surgery. These guys will compete with Motte, Perez, and Franklin for the closers role.