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10.20.2008 2:52 pm

Cardinals Not a Player for Peavy

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There’s lots of chatter out there about the Cardinals making a pitch for esteemed Padres starter Jake Peavy, one of the NL’s top pitchers.

The Padres, wanting to downsize, want to move Peavy’s contract. He is due to receive $8 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011, $17 million in 2012. And there’s a club option of $22 million for 2013.  If the option isn’t picked up for 2013, then Peavy gets a $4 million buyout.

Peavy has a limited no-trade clause in the deal, and wants to remain in the NL, and St. Louis is acceptable to him.

My friend Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union Tribune does a fine job of explaining the situation from the Padres’ standpoint, and handicaps the race for Peavy’s services: link

Other potential suitors include Atlanta, Houston, the Chicago Cubs, NY Mets, LA Dodgers and Milwaukee. The Braves, at least so far, are believed to have the inside track in the bidding for Peavy.

And the Cardinals?

They’re not a serious player for Peavy at this point.

Monday, I talked to multiple sources in the organization who downplayed the Cardinals-Peavy connection. I was told that the Cardinals and Padres have had only one conversation concerning Peavy, and the discussion didn’t lead to any follow-up negotiations.  And so the chances of the Cardinals getting Peavy appear to be pretty cold right now.  “It doesn’t have legs,” I was told.

Why the Cardinals won’t make a serious run for Peavy is left to the imagination.

It could be Peavy’s contract, which isn’t prohibitive, unless Cardinals management believes they’ve already tied up too much long-term money in deals with Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse.

There’s also the health-risk factor; the Cardinals got burned on pitching deals with Carpenter and Mark Mulder.

It could be the unwillingness to part with the load of prospects that the Padres reportedly are seeking in exchange for Peavy.

Or it could be a combination of all three factors.

But for now, the message is clear: don’t expect the Cardinals to make a push for Peavy. The conversation between the Cardinals and Padres didn’t ignite, and now other teams have apparently moved into better position to get him.

I wonder what the reaction will be among Cardinals fans if Peavy ends up with the Cubs, Astros or Brewers?

-B

23 comments

Comments are closed.

:)

Per your last question: The answer is entertaining.

— R.C.
3:05 pm October 20th, 2008

Bernie — I’m sure there must be an aging veteran with a bad elbow we can get for cheap.

— thamnosma
3:49 pm October 20th, 2008

I’m usually the last guy to call out owners as cheap and what not, but the fact that this guy is locked up til 2013 in an albeit large but not horrific contract, makes me think that it would be dumb for ownership to seriously pursue this. Unless the Padres are starting and ending conversations with the Cardinals to one of the core players (Pujols, Molina, Wainwright etc.), this needs to happen.

I’m sure Colby Rasmus will be a multiple time all-star, but I know Jake Peavy is a Cy Young winner in his prime. If we don’t trade for Peavy because of Colby Rasmus, then he better turn into the greatest outfielder ever.

— bluecard
4:04 pm October 20th, 2008

Hi Bernie;

thanks for pursuing the issue and getting some solid information to share with us. At this point I am disappointed. But we’ll see what the Cards do to shore up their holes. After all, I don’t know what they’re planning. I’m just a fan who has to eat what is given to me. Like a kid being called to the dinner table in a poor mans home, sometimes dinner is real lean…but where else do I go? I’m in the home I love and I will live with it.

And Bernie; I’d just like to add that I REALLY appreciate your work! God bless….

— drelboc
4:27 pm October 20th, 2008

How Sad. I really thought they’d want to try to pursue this. Colby Rasmus will be good but will never be great. Why? B/c no matter where he’s at, he’s always been a slow starter..it takes him 1 1/2 months to get started. Sure, from that point on he does well, but his overall stats will never be Pujolesque. When i say he starts slow I mean he’s pals with Mendoza for over a month before he heats up. JMO

— Herzog2
5:03 pm October 20th, 2008

B -

I’m neither surprised nor disappointed by your news. I fully expect that the Padres are asking for the moon in any deal for Peavy - which for the Cards means at least two out of Rasmus, Perez, and Anderson, if not all three. If so, then the Cards are right to walk away from the table and let some other team give S.D. too much in return for Peavy. Peavy’s a very, very good pitcher, but at $15-16 million per year over the next four (on average) he’s only a “value”, not a “great value”.

The Cards, with long term committments already made to Pujols, Carpenter, Lohse, Wainwright, and Molina, probably can’t afford to take on Peavy’s salary while at the same time trading away the very three guys (Rasmus, Perez, and Anderson) most likely to help the team balance its payroll over the long run.

IMO - the Cards could afford, from a long term payroll perspective, to deal any one of Rasmus, Perez, or Anderson in a deal for Peavy, but not two or three of them.

— mattmitchl44
5:29 pm October 20th, 2008

I for one can not see why all of you out there think Peavy is worth 50 mill. Look at Mark Mulder, Chris Carpenter. I am not all that crazy about Colby Rasmus but I do not see giving up future players and taking on all that salary. If the Padres are so gung ho on unloading Peavy taking the salary should be enough. I know that is not the way things get done so if you seriously want Peavy one for one should be a done deal. of course the Padres probably are not real happly with us at this point{Edmunds].A would think there are as good if not better and healthier arms out there for less so you can address the other needs as well. I think if TLR would give Ryan a chance he could do as good if not better at2nd or ss than Izturis or Kennedy. Tlr ruined Kennedy. I would feel real comfy with a healthy Shoe, Ankiel, Ryan lineup every day.Glaus Ryan, Miles, Pujols would also be decent. TLR constantly jumbled the lineup so no one Knew what or who was going to play. Chris Duncan needs to go to the Am. league and DH.

— gwdefiance@myway.com
5:39 pm October 20th, 2008

Why the Cardinals won’t make a serious run for Peavy is left to the imagination.

It’s quite simple actually. They know that they will draw 3 million fans without spending a dime.

— dp1616
5:56 pm October 20th, 2008

I’m actually kind of relieved that the FO appears to be staying away from this trade. Pitchers obviously have the highest injury risk of any position on the field, and we already have 3 pitchers locked up until 2011. Granted, none of them are currently front of the rotation types; however, I have a feeling we may see Adam make the leap into the National League elite next year. I would rather have 6 cost controlled years of a blue chip player (Rasmus) at a premium position who absolutely destroyed AA at the age of 20. Look it up; see how many players hit 29 homeruns with a .381 OBP at the age of 20 at AA. Not many. He was one of the youngest players in the PCL this year, had a tough start, got hot for 2 months, then got hurt. I just don’t think people can comprehend what kind of potential this kid has. As exciting as a 1-2 of Peavy-Wainwright, I remember back in December of 2004 how excited I was about the 1-2 punch of Mulder-Carpenter. The club has worked hard on developing young, cheap talent the last few years. It’s working for other organizations, just ask the team with the 29th lowest payroll in the league (The Rays). I bet they wish they dealt B.J. Upton and James Shields 3 or 4 years ago for a “proven” top of the rotation pitcher like, say, Jason Schmidt, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Carl Pavano, or Pedro Martinez. The youth movement is here in the MLB, and I believe the FO is right for embracing it. I would hate to see our young talent traded away for a player who’s contract has the potential to be an albatross considering the money we already have tied up in starting pitching. Just say no to Jake Peavy, Mr. Mo.

— ARich
6:05 pm October 20th, 2008

Peavy, Carpenter (if healthy), Wainwright and Lohse would be one of the best rotations in baseball. Cy Young pitchers in their prime and under contract for three years with an option, are usually not available. Plus we’ve got the prospects to make this deal work.Sometimes you have to trade value to receive value.As bluecard said if Rasmus kills the deal he better be the best outfielder(how many outfielders do we have?) ever.And if Peavy ends up with another team in our divsion…..

— bally22
6:15 pm October 20th, 2008

That’s fine, lets go after one of the Free Agents out there. Maybe Sheets with a nice bonus IF he can remain healthy. Peavy’s contract plus the prospects is too much to give up. Besides, I think the starting rotation on the 2008 team was one of the best parts of the team. Still need middle infield and bullpen help. Another starter would be great, but there are bigger fish to fry.

— dmony
7:03 pm October 20th, 2008

In Peavy, we would have another sore elbow pitcher that only pitches well in his pitcher friendly park. Outside his home park, he is no better than Braden Looper. His ERA on the road is almost 4.00. Why pay millions of dollars for someone to be your number 3 pitcher behind Wainwright and Lohse not to mention all the players you have to give up for him. Our starters are fine. We need a closer more than anything.

— c18693
8:55 pm October 20th, 2008

“How Sad. I really thought they’d want to try to pursue this. Colby Rasmus will be good but will never be great. Why? B/c no matter where he’s at, he’s always been a slow starter..it takes him 1 1/2 months to get started. Sure, from that point on he does well, but his overall stats will never be Pujolesque. When i say he starts slow I mean he’s pals with Mendoza for over a month before he heats up. JMO
— Herzog2″

– Just throwing this out there … 2006 NL MVP and Proud St. Louisian Ryan Howard is a notorious slow starter. http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=howarry01&t=b&year=2008

Not saying Rasmus will be Howard, but you can be a slow starter and still be an elite player. Just saying.

— aboveaveragejoe
9:00 pm October 20th, 2008

Well if the Cardnals WERE interested, I wouldn’t come out and tell the world I was going to blow the Padres away with an offer.

— Hammer44
9:28 pm October 20th, 2008

Bernie said;

“I wonder what the reaction will be among Cardinals fans if Peavy ends up with the Cubs, Astros or Brewers?

Well, if that happens, my heart will sink…but more importantly is how much more the CARDS HEART will sink.

It’s been interesting following this rumor mill. The Union Tribune out of San Diego has a lot of angry fans blogging about the fate of their star pitcher as far as the idea of trading him. As a fan, I cannot help but pity them. It puts some things in perspective and makes me appreciate that I was raised in a home that followed Cardinal baseball. I’m also very proud to be amongst Cardinal fans…just good ol midwestern people…and ya know, they really are the best!!

— drelboc
10:10 pm October 20th, 2008

Colby Rasmus better be awfully awfully good. I am tired of hearing about him. Its like some new Beckett play “Waiting for Rasmus”. He is afterall an unproven PROSPECT. If we could be in the picture for Peavy by putting rasmus on the table we ought to do it. If it takes three prospects to get a proven #1 like Peavy we ought to do it. Yes he has a long term contract, but it is a bargain by today’s standards.

— Abdul
6:47 am October 21st, 2008

It would be great to add a guy like Peavey to the rotation. But the fact is this–our rotation was not the problem this past year. If(and I know about ifs)Wainwright is healthy all year, which is a reasonable expectation, and Carp is finally at say 75-90%(which is a gamble, I admit), we should be fine there. The 3 most important areas to address IMO are:
1)Bullpen LHR & possible closer
2)A dangerous bat to protect the best hitter in baseball. Pujols was pitched around way too much!
3)Middle infield which could be addressed in many different ways
These were the areas that were the difference between 85 wins and 95 wins.
What do you all think?

— casey1024
7:49 am October 21st, 2008

ok let me start off by saying that i like rasmus, but you’re talking about a manager who would always rather have a washed up vetern instead of letting a kid get some time in on the major league level. the cards wont be able to rebuild fully until larussa’s gone. he wont let it happen. im sure tony would like this trade because he’s all about winning now. but the organization has to make a decision. win now or really rebuild. not the half rebuild half win now philosophy that they’re trying to do now. if you want to win now get peavy, if you want to rebuild blow this thing up and really rebuild. rebuiilding doesnt consist of signing old bench players every year to start at one of the middle infields.

— jay d
8:02 am October 21st, 2008

Once again they will use the dreaded Colby Rasmus excuse. Just what is the big deal with him anyway? The guy played 90 games at AAA ball and hit .251 with 11 home runs! WOW! Babe Ruth look out! Stan the Man move over.
Mo the Mouth and Bill DeWallet would have invented another excuse if the Colby Rasmus one wasn’t available. Anyone who belives they will make a real attempt at any first-rate quality players needs to seek counceling at once.

— markthephoneguy
10:53 am October 21st, 2008

markthephoneguy;

I am one of those fans who believes the cards will make a real attempt at a first rate quality player. However, if my hopes and dreams are dashed, who do you recommend I should see for counceling? lol…I loved your comment.

— dave cobler
11:20 am October 21st, 2008

that is way too much money to spend on a pitcher. I too would like to see the Cards players in the free agent market but not for that money. Lets take a look at the past. The Cards took a pass on Kevin Brown, the fans complained, then the he got injured and bounced around. You can say the same thing about Mike Hampton and you can add Schmidt on to that list. There have been too many times that big name pitchers got big money only to go down with injuries. Now I am not saying that Peavy will go down, but that is too big of a risk for that much money.

— jds83210
12:26 pm October 21st, 2008

It’s an interesting point about Peavy not being as effective away from Petco Park. For his career on the road he has a .380 ERA, has given up 82 homers on the road opposed to only 47 at home. So he has, as do most pitchers, gained an advantage pitching the majority of his games at Petco Park.

I think the Cards need to let Raz continue to develop. He is only 22 years old, and how quickly we forget the way he killed the ball in AA. Before we take on Peavy’s contract we might have a talented and cheap everyday player in Raz. There will be other elite pitchers like Peavy become available to trade for or sign as a free agent, but before we trade a potential all-star lets see what Raz is capable of.

— emc2013
3:00 pm October 21st, 2008

The smart approach would be to continue to build from within. Peavy is not a guy who is going to put us over the top. We have plenty of other needs that have to be addressed first. If we had lock down closer in 2008, we would’ve at least won the wild card, if not the division. Finding a closer and LH relievers should be at the top of the priority list. And, as previously stated, adding a bat to protect Albert would be huge!

Sorry, but trading away the future and paying big money to Peavy is not good business!

— Cardsballhawk
7:04 am October 22nd, 2008