Do the Cardinals Believe in Ryan Ludwick?
As the Ryan Ludwick trade speculation continues to swirl, I thought I’d dial it it back to take a look at one of the central issues:
Is Ludwick a one-year wonder?
The Cardinals probably believe that to a large extent — or they would not be shopping Ludwick.
After all, Ludwick is coming off a 37-homer, 113-RBI season and finished second in the NL in slugging. He was named to the NL All-Star team, then made the postseason NL All-Star team as chosen by The Sporting News. And Ludwick is, relatively speaking, cheap labor.
So why would the Cardinals be of the mind to deal Ludwick for another outfielder (Matt Holliday) unless they had some doubts about Ludwick’s ability to repeat his 2008 success?
Ludwick had an OPS+ of 150 last season, or 10 points higher than Holliday’s OPS+ of 140.
But that can be viewed as a snapshot, rather than an entire career album.
Ludwick will be 31 in June, 2009. Holliday will be 29 in January. So Holliday is younger. But Holliday, a Scott Boras client, is also one season away from entering free agency; one way or another he’s going to cost a lot more money to employ than Ludwick.
So obviously it makes sense to keep the lower-cost player if the team can expect similar production from each guy.
But if the Cardinals are serious about a Ludwick (and others?) swap for Holliday, then it is logical to conclude that they believe Holliday will be a vastly superior producer as both players move forward in their careers.
There is no way, obviously, to analyze Ludwick’s future with any certainty. Nate Silver’s PECOTA system doesn’t hold out much hope for Ludwick, but it’s outdated for now in that it’s based on Ludwick’s pre-2008 numbers.
Baseball-Reference.com has a neat feature that gives us a chance to see a list of players who are most comparable by age to another player.
I’ve pulled Ludwick’s Baseball-Reference.com page so you can take a look.
But here are Ludwick’s comparables through age 29:
Bubba Trammell
Josh Willingham
Kevin Millar
Brian Daubach
Dusty Rhodes
Chet Laabs
Jim Lemon
Jayson Werth
Jason Lane
That’s an interesting mix. You can surf around Baseball-Reference.com and call up each man’s career if you’d like.
But I glanced at a few and saw how Ludwick can go one way or another.
I won’t break down each individual, but a couple of interesting comparables jump out.
Is Ludwick a Jim Lemon?
That would be good for the Cardinals. Lemon didn’t have a breakout season until age 28, when he slugged 27 homers with 96 RBIs for the 1956 Washington Senators. And then he pretty much kept it up over the next four seasons, with an OPS+ of 118, 114, 129 and 130 through 1960.
And in 1961, at age 33, Lemon stalled out. Still it was a helluva five-year run. If the Cardinals were confident they’d get five consecutive Lemon-like years out of Ludwick, I don’t think they’d be anxious to move him.
OK … but suppose Ludwick is Bubba Trammell or Jason Lane?
The brief on Trammell: at age 29, he hit 25 homers with 92 RBIs for the 2001 Padres. In 2002, he dipped to 17 homers, 56 RBIs and a .243 batting average. After playing one more injury-plagued season with the 2003 Yankees, Trammell was finished by age 31.
The brief on Lane: He cranked out 26 homers and 78 RBIs in 517 ABs for the 2005 Astros. But in 2006, Lane batted .201 with 15 homers and 75 strikeouts in 288 ABs. By 2007, Lane was spending time in the minors. In 2008, he spent the entire season in Class AAA ball.
So who is Ludwick?
Is he Jim Lemon or Bubba Trammell?
That’s the kind of decision that can determine whether a GM is a success or failure.
Thanks for reading, and as always your comments are appreciated….
-B


IMO I think Ludwick will be good for 25 to 35 homeruns and 90 to 110 RBI for the next 3 to 5 years unless he is disabled by injury. I just think he is a solid player who gets the best out of his God given talent, which he compliments with a solid work ethic and mental toughness. He has what it takes to be a very accomplished / polished player. Ludwick has been through a lot just to be a big leaguer. He, Ankeil and Schumaker have similar back grounds as far as the grueling set backs they have had to overcome just to make it to ghe big leagues. I think thats why the chemistry on the ‘08′ squad was so good. These guys have a lot in common. They have settled the matter in there own heart and mind that they belong in the big leagues and not only that, but they all have proved it. ball.