Do the Cardinals Believe in Ryan Ludwick?
As the Ryan Ludwick trade speculation continues to swirl, I thought I’d dial it it back to take a look at one of the central issues:
Is Ludwick a one-year wonder?
The Cardinals probably believe that to a large extent — or they would not be shopping Ludwick.
After all, Ludwick is coming off a 37-homer, 113-RBI season and finished second in the NL in slugging. He was named to the NL All-Star team, then made the postseason NL All-Star team as chosen by The Sporting News. And Ludwick is, relatively speaking, cheap labor.
So why would the Cardinals be of the mind to deal Ludwick for another outfielder (Matt Holliday) unless they had some doubts about Ludwick’s ability to repeat his 2008 success?
Ludwick had an OPS+ of 150 last season, or 10 points higher than Holliday’s OPS+ of 140.
But that can be viewed as a snapshot, rather than an entire career album.
Ludwick will be 31 in June, 2009. Holliday will be 29 in January. So Holliday is younger. But Holliday, a Scott Boras client, is also one season away from entering free agency; one way or another he’s going to cost a lot more money to employ than Ludwick.
So obviously it makes sense to keep the lower-cost player if the team can expect similar production from each guy.
But if the Cardinals are serious about a Ludwick (and others?) swap for Holliday, then it is logical to conclude that they believe Holliday will be a vastly superior producer as both players move forward in their careers.
There is no way, obviously, to analyze Ludwick’s future with any certainty. Nate Silver’s PECOTA system doesn’t hold out much hope for Ludwick, but it’s outdated for now in that it’s based on Ludwick’s pre-2008 numbers.
Baseball-Reference.com has a neat feature that gives us a chance to see a list of players who are most comparable by age to another player.
I’ve pulled Ludwick’s Baseball-Reference.com page so you can take a look.
But here are Ludwick’s comparables through age 29:
Bubba Trammell
Josh Willingham
Kevin Millar
Brian Daubach
Dusty Rhodes
Chet Laabs
Jim Lemon
Jayson Werth
Jason Lane
That’s an interesting mix. You can surf around Baseball-Reference.com and call up each man’s career if you’d like.
But I glanced at a few and saw how Ludwick can go one way or another.
I won’t break down each individual, but a couple of interesting comparables jump out.
Is Ludwick a Jim Lemon?
That would be good for the Cardinals. Lemon didn’t have a breakout season until age 28, when he slugged 27 homers with 96 RBIs for the 1956 Washington Senators. And then he pretty much kept it up over the next four seasons, with an OPS+ of 118, 114, 129 and 130 through 1960.
And in 1961, at age 33, Lemon stalled out. Still it was a helluva five-year run. If the Cardinals were confident they’d get five consecutive Lemon-like years out of Ludwick, I don’t think they’d be anxious to move him.
OK … but suppose Ludwick is Bubba Trammell or Jason Lane?
The brief on Trammell: at age 29, he hit 25 homers with 92 RBIs for the 2001 Padres. In 2002, he dipped to 17 homers, 56 RBIs and a .243 batting average. After playing one more injury-plagued season with the 2003 Yankees, Trammell was finished by age 31.
The brief on Lane: He cranked out 26 homers and 78 RBIs in 517 ABs for the 2005 Astros. But in 2006, Lane batted .201 with 15 homers and 75 strikeouts in 288 ABs. By 2007, Lane was spending time in the minors. In 2008, he spent the entire season in Class AAA ball.
So who is Ludwick?
Is he Jim Lemon or Bubba Trammell?
That’s the kind of decision that can determine whether a GM is a success or failure.
Thanks for reading, and as always your comments are appreciated….
-B
IMO I think Ludwick will be good for 25 to 35 homeruns and 90 to 110 RBI for the next 3 to 5 years unless he is disabled by injury. I just think he is a solid player who gets the best out of his God given talent, which he compliments with a solid work ethic and mental toughness. He has what it takes to be a very accomplished / polished player. Ludwick has been through a lot just to be a big leaguer. He, Ankeil and Schumaker have similar back grounds as far as the grueling set backs they have had to overcome just to make it to ghe big leagues. I think thats why the chemistry on the ‘08′ squad was so good. These guys have a lot in common. They have settled the matter in there own heart and mind that they belong in the big leagues and not only that, but they all have proved it. ball.
Bernie brings some salient points to the table, and crunching numbers is a guide, a good guide may I add, but isn’t accompanied by a crystal ball…checking the broader picture, JUST having Holliday in the lineup brings a positive feeling toward the team…..his bat, along with Albert’s and Glaus, is the modern day version of murderers row….yes, I know their are other pressing needs, which makes this trade difficult….If only we had a Fred Wilpon and George Steinbrenner as an owner, this team would POSITIVELY, ABSOLUTELY, make the playoff’s and beyond….I know, their teams don’t “bring home the bacon” every year, but their not hesitant to SPEND to improve their teams !!
Chemistry in 08= 4th place…change it up
This is the first time Ludwick has been healthy for any lengthy stretch in his pro career. He’s getting better every year. He was highly regarded when he was first drafted and he is now living up to that billing. The only issue is his future health. I don’t see him missing any games with pulled muscles and sore knees. I’ll put my money on him being a Jim Lemon.
The guy was the 2nd best slugger in the league this year. It still baffles my mind how anybody could be serious about trading him. He’s not the reason we didn’t make the playoffs. I think you could even make a case that he’s a better player now than Holliday.
Great points.
There is certainly a risk in giving up a player who is much cheaper for one that is going to demand Pujols type dollars.
But if the team does make this move, they are saying that they are willing to finally spend the dollars to improve the team. It might not be that Holliday will produce more than Ludwick but the history of both would say differently. I am confident that Holliday would be a tremendous asset in the cleanup spot for years to come. Ludwick is a question mark and also one that has been injury prone his entire career.
I hope the Cardinals make this move because it will be the first impact move they have made in years. It could backfire but at least they would be trying something.
I like Luwick, he had an outstanding season. When he stepped to the plate in crucial situations I found myself thinking, “well maybe” but when Holliday would step in against the Cards, regardless of the situation, I would think “oh (expletive)”. That’s the intangible, I believe, he brings. Holliday would be a great acquisition and unless the talent price would be ridiculously high I’d take him without a second thought.
If you take the players Ludwick is similar to and then average their performance over the next 5 years then do the same for Holliday you would end up with something close to the expectation for both.
That might be the best way to compare these numbers.
Then take a look at the worst case or set of cases for both to determine the downside.
You have made good points for and against the trade. It’s a risk either way. If I was going to consider the trade, I would demand a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension. That would be a deal breaker. If we could sign Holliday at a price with which we are comfortable, I would go for it. I have seen him play in STL and on television. I love Ryan, but to me Holliday is just a better overall player.
Um, hello??? Forget all of this Holliday trade talk. Holliday will command at least $15 million per year after 2009. And, go to the Denver Post web site and see what the Rockies reporters and fans are saying. The Rockies like Holliday’s offense, but would love to unload his outfield butchering defense.
How about investing that $15 million into bullpen arms? Hello, remember our “gas can on fire” bullpen from 2008? That money should be used to get a couple of arms for the back end of the bullpen. I’m not interested in another 31 blown save, and 30-something loss season from the bullpen. Are you interested in watching our 2008 bullpen year after year?
Also, keeping Ludwick, and adding an offensive middle infielder, is addition without subtraction.
As Cardsballhawk mentioned, how can ANYONE forget our most pressing need: serious 8th & 9th inning shutdown arms in the bullpen?
To hell with trading interesting talent for proven talent in the outfield, not to mention the question of resigning a Boras client. We had a very good offense last season, and generally good production from our outfield. You can’t predict injuries, but you can definitely see that last year, out outfield solidified and wasn’t a question mark for most of the season.
What we lacked was middle infield offensive production and a solid closer. I think there’s absolutely no way you can trade 2/3 of our 2008 outfield and a potential MLB pitching prospect for 1 guaranteed year of an allstar outfielder, especially considering that neither side of the equation is guaranteed.
I’m not averse to spending money, but I am absolutely against trading Ludwick, Schu, AND Boggs for one guaranteed year of Holliday. Hell, I’m against trading all three even if it comes with a new multi-year contract for Holliday.
I’m also tired of this platoon crap that TLR plays with our guys. You know who your best performers are - send them out there every day and let them get into a routine! On the flip side, don’t stick with a loser for so long. (Hello Izzy!)