IMO I think Ludwick will be good for 25 to 35 homeruns and 90 to 110 RBI for the next 3 to 5 years unless he is disabled by injury. I just think he is a solid player who gets the best out of his God given talent, which he compliments with a solid work ethic and mental toughness. He has what it takes to be a very accomplished / polished player. Ludwick has been through a lot just to be a big leaguer. He, Ankeil and Schumaker have similar back grounds as far as the grueling set backs they have had to overcome just to make it to ghe big leagues. I think thats why the chemistry on the ‘08′ squad was so good. These guys have a lot in common. They have settled the matter in there own heart and mind that they belong in the big leagues and not only that, but they all have proved it. ball.

Bernie brings some salient points to the table, and crunching numbers is a guide, a good guide may I add, but isn’t accompanied by a crystal ball…checking the broader picture, JUST having Holliday in the lineup brings a positive feeling toward the team…..his bat, along with Albert’s and Glaus, is the modern day version of murderers row….yes, I know their are other pressing needs, which makes this trade difficult….If only we had a Fred Wilpon and George Steinbrenner as an owner, this team would POSITIVELY, ABSOLUTELY, make the playoff’s and beyond….I know, their teams don’t “bring home the bacon” every year, but their not hesitant to SPEND to improve their teams !!

Chemistry in 08= 4th place…change it up

This is the first time Ludwick has been healthy for any lengthy stretch in his pro career. He’s getting better every year. He was highly regarded when he was first drafted and he is now living up to that billing. The only issue is his future health. I don’t see him missing any games with pulled muscles and sore knees. I’ll put my money on him being a Jim Lemon.

The guy was the 2nd best slugger in the league this year. It still baffles my mind how anybody could be serious about trading him. He’s not the reason we didn’t make the playoffs. I think you could even make a case that he’s a better player now than Holliday.

Great points.

There is certainly a risk in giving up a player who is much cheaper for one that is going to demand Pujols type dollars.

But if the team does make this move, they are saying that they are willing to finally spend the dollars to improve the team. It might not be that Holliday will produce more than Ludwick but the history of both would say differently. I am confident that Holliday would be a tremendous asset in the cleanup spot for years to come. Ludwick is a question mark and also one that has been injury prone his entire career.

I hope the Cardinals make this move because it will be the first impact move they have made in years. It could backfire but at least they would be trying something.

I like Luwick, he had an outstanding season. When he stepped to the plate in crucial situations I found myself thinking, “well maybe” but when Holliday would step in against the Cards, regardless of the situation, I would think “oh (expletive)”. That’s the intangible, I believe, he brings. Holliday would be a great acquisition and unless the talent price would be ridiculously high I’d take him without a second thought.

If you take the players Ludwick is similar to and then average their performance over the next 5 years then do the same for Holliday you would end up with something close to the expectation for both.

That might be the best way to compare these numbers.

Then take a look at the worst case or set of cases for both to determine the downside.

You have made good points for and against the trade. It’s a risk either way. If I was going to consider the trade, I would demand a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension. That would be a deal breaker. If we could sign Holliday at a price with which we are comfortable, I would go for it. I have seen him play in STL and on television. I love Ryan, but to me Holliday is just a better overall player.

Um, hello??? Forget all of this Holliday trade talk. Holliday will command at least $15 million per year after 2009. And, go to the Denver Post web site and see what the Rockies reporters and fans are saying. The Rockies like Holliday’s offense, but would love to unload his outfield butchering defense.

How about investing that $15 million into bullpen arms? Hello, remember our “gas can on fire” bullpen from 2008? That money should be used to get a couple of arms for the back end of the bullpen. I’m not interested in another 31 blown save, and 30-something loss season from the bullpen. Are you interested in watching our 2008 bullpen year after year?

Also, keeping Ludwick, and adding an offensive middle infielder, is addition without subtraction.

As Cardsballhawk mentioned, how can ANYONE forget our most pressing need: serious 8th & 9th inning shutdown arms in the bullpen?

To hell with trading interesting talent for proven talent in the outfield, not to mention the question of resigning a Boras client. We had a very good offense last season, and generally good production from our outfield. You can’t predict injuries, but you can definitely see that last year, out outfield solidified and wasn’t a question mark for most of the season.

What we lacked was middle infield offensive production and a solid closer. I think there’s absolutely no way you can trade 2/3 of our 2008 outfield and a potential MLB pitching prospect for 1 guaranteed year of an allstar outfielder, especially considering that neither side of the equation is guaranteed.

I’m not averse to spending money, but I am absolutely against trading Ludwick, Schu, AND Boggs for one guaranteed year of Holliday. Hell, I’m against trading all three even if it comes with a new multi-year contract for Holliday.

I’m also tired of this platoon crap that TLR plays with our guys. You know who your best performers are - send them out there every day and let them get into a routine! On the flip side, don’t stick with a loser for so long. (Hello Izzy!)

Among the reasons I don’t like this deal is that it simply doesn’t address the Cardinals’ most pressing needs: middle-infield offense and the bullpen. Let’s say Holliday becomes a Cardinal and has a terrific 2009 (roughly 37 homers, 110 RBIs, 100 runs). St. Louis will have taken two steps forward (in salary), and two steps back (those numbers are directly parallel to the season Ludwick just completed). Considering the enormous savings the club will enjoy in sticking with Ludwick, how much will they suffer if he “slumps” to 20-25 homers and 80 RBIs? Use the bargaining chips we have (and payroll room) to find a true need, not another slugging outfielder.

Hey, Bernie… you’ve provided us with some great numbers.

I do wonder if Ludwick is due to regress. And I feel like it’s a risk to bank on his ability to put up comparable numbers in 2009 and beyond… However, I think it’s an even bigger risk to pay Holliday in the 16-20 million dollar range (and, thus wrap up payroll that could be otherwise allocated towards middle infield or rotation/bullpen arms) to perhaps only have marginally better numbers than Ludwick.

Ludwick’s stats over the last three years show that he’s been very productive over this span of time:

2006 AAA -——- 510 AB, 28 HR, 80 RBI
2007 AAA/MLB – 409 AB, 22 HR, 88 RBI
2008 MLB -—— 538 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI

So it’s not just 2008 that we have to go on…

And not only that… but wouldn’t signing Holliday to a long-term deal almost certainly punch Ankiel’s ticket out of town following the 2009 season? Does ownership really believe they can afford two Boras clients in the outfield..? And extend Pujols… And still fill the other holes that would not have even been addressed in the MI, LH relief, and insurance for the rotation?

I don’t know if this happens everywhere, but it seems like Cardinal fans always overvalue players like Ludwick… scrappy Bo Hart anyone? It’s definitely a risk, just as risky as counting on Ludwick to repeat. The $$ Holliday would command doesn’t bother me, but it makes me wonder what the Cards will do about SS and 2B. Can Greene handle it? With Holliday they don’t need a stud offense guy in the middle, but they’ll need to replace Schumaker at leadoff with one of those positions probably.

excellent research, and that is the $64,000 question for MO, there are decisions that make or break a franchise….if they guess wrong on Ludwick, and he is on the rise, they tied up millions on a bad choice, if this is good as it gets for Ludwick, then they look very smart

VanRam… you just simply can’t compare Bo Hart to a guy who just hit 37 HRs and 100+ RBI’s. You can’t place too much value on Ludwick when he puts those kind of numbers up for his bargain price.

One question…Today is Nov. 09, 2007…Colorado calls and ask if we would be interested in their future Hall of Famer Matt Holliday, Mo drops the phone and almost chokes on his lunch, he then grabs the phone back and screams “are you still there”? Yes the caller says, we want Ludwick, Shu and a little know pitcher in the minors named Boggs. Mo clutches his chest and thinks he is having a heart attack, but he doesn’t want to seem too anxious so he asks if can have a few days to think it over. He calls Dewitt and tells him about this phone call and DeWitt asks Mo, when will he be here? Mo says, I told them I needed a few days to think it over…DeWitt fires him on the spot, and EVERY fan wants to burn Mo at the stake ASAP.

Of course you make this trade, the ONLY obstacle is he has to sign an extension. That is a deal breaker!!!

Again, I don’t see how it’s an open and shut case.

There is no reason to believe that Ludwick can’t be a productive outfielder for at least a few more cheap years. Even if he puts up only .275 25 80 in 530AB he’s STILL a productive outfielder, and at very minor cost.

Let’s also not forget that next year, the NL will know he’s a threat and will be a bit more inclined to pitch to Pujols. Even if they don’t pitch to El Hombre as much as they would with a MANRAM or Howard behind him, he’s still getting on base and that will often put men in scoring position for Ludwick.

I would also imagine that if Luddy gets into the kind of shape he’s known for the last few years (lots of + comments on his work ethic), he’ll be physically less prone to injury and will have the knowledge of a great season to build on. Please don’t forget that Ludwick is a very talented and smart player, significantly above-average compared to most of what we have in the minors. He can still get better, even if he is going on 31.

Definitely consider this his prime and keep him around for at least another year to see how he develops. Address your biggest problems from last year - middle infield offensive production (we need everyday starters) and a shutdown closer & setup guy. You do those things and they more than make up for ANY decline in run production we’ll see should Luddy trend downward or get hurt.

I was at the game the first time Ryan Ludwick came to bat as a Cardinal and was immediately impressed with his live bat. I think he’s the real thing, whose progress was delayed by injuries and bad luck. I’ve often wondered why Tony LaRussa seems never to have warmed up to Ludwick and usually gives him grudging credit, if any.

These are the situations that help make baseball so much fun — or ought to be — they seem to make some people angry, for reasons I cannot understand. We won’t have a clue how the teams’ choices work out until AFTER the next season.

The team finished 4th, so tear it up ? THe team was in contention for much of the season, and needs tweaking (and fewer injuries, too, and good chcices by the FO)

Stop platooning ? some of the finest and must successful managers in baseball history have platooned, and some of them platooned much more than TLR. A set lineup is no sign of a good team. (Try last season’s Cincy Reds)

I actually agree with Cardsfan1968 on one thing: This is an open and shut case.

Ludwick’s OPS+ (a very good stat to show overall production that also includes factors like what park the player plays in) was actually 10 points higher than Holliday’s last year. Ludwick is also under St. Louis control at relatively cheap costs for the next 3 seasons, whereas Holliday will cost 10M and then, if we can keep him, we’ll be paying him probably in the range of 12-16M a year on average to resign him. Meanwhile, Ludwick and others for Holliday doesn’t address any of our real needs, most pressing middle infield and the left side of the bullpen.

Even if Ludwick trails off and goes for, let’s speculate: .280 with 25 HRs and 90 RBI, then upgrading in the middle infield will still add most potency to the lineup than replacing Ludwick with Holliday.

It’d be a bad trade to go after Holliday, afterall, let’s remember, Holliday’s numbers have been put up in the most hitter friendly park over the last several years. His three-year average OPS for the last three years is 1.099 at home and .856 away. Everyone commenting here will be seriously pissed off if we dump a moderately priced Ludwick, very cheap Schumacher, and league minimum Boggs for a guy who will make 10M if he produces at an .856 OPS.

If Mo is to take a chance on a trade, it should be for someone who will fit the middle infield, and preferably who is cost-controlled for a few years still. Someone like a Brandon Wood of the Angels, who still has upside and who, despite his weak MLB numbers, has raked all throughout the minors. That kid is the type of kid that we should go after.

Hey Bernie,

As always, look forward to your articles as I read my “morning paper” online. This is a tough one. I don’t disagree w/ your comments. Much less $ to get basically the same output. However, a couple comments in favor of Holliday. If I’m a pitcher and see Holliday batting after Pujols, that is more intimidating to me. This may be the big bat after Albert we’re looking for (or at least the rationale). I also get irritated when someone strikes out 3-4 times in a game. Ludwick does this periodically. I don’t know if the Cards believe this can be corrected or not. They both had about the same # of at bats in 2008, and Matt H struck out 42 less times (146 to 104). I’m not sure, but I think Holliday started off slow where maybe he accumulated more of his strikeouts early in the season. In any case, at least get the bat on the ball w/ runners in scoring position. Strikeouts are real rally killers. While you lose some HR’s possibly by striking out less, you may very well gain in RBI’s by getting the bat on the ball.

All said, I’m not sure which way the Cards should go? Ludwick c’d improve his strikout ratio and really deliver at lower prices for the next couple years.

Cards - Please don’t trade Ankiel!!! He belongs in St Louis!!!!!

Nick

The only way I see the Cards doing this deal, is if the Cards know they can muster up enough money to lock up Holliday. That is, obviously, what is going to make or break this deal.

I’ve been convinced that we tend to make too much of Holliday’s home/road splits. This guy can hit, only once in his career has he hit below .300, this season he set a career high for walks, and he finished 9th in the NL in SLG. This guy has put up great numbers since his rookie season. He can hit, and he has showed it over the course of his career.

The best position in baseball is the four spot in the Cards lineup. Right behind El Hombre. Hitting in the four hole Holliday will see pitches to hit, and he will chances to drive in runs. It certainly changes the way other teams look at the Cards lineup, it changes the lineups “fear factor”, Luddy doesn’t do that.

But, again the complication in all of this is can the Cards the sign Holliday past ‘09? I think Luddy is a good enough hitter to produce 20 something HRs, and drive in 90 runs, but his value will never be higher, and Holliday certainly adds that fear factor that was not there before. But, to trade away three years of Luddy, for one season of Holliday? You just can’t do that. Holliday isn’t going to push this team over the top… solid pitching will.

Also, how much of an issue is his defense?

I’m on board with longhair. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The 2008 deficiencies were obvious. Plus, now living in Colorado, I worry about what the mountain air does to stats. Holliday clearly is a much different hitter on the road and well below .300 when he’s in the lowlands. Please don’t make that trade, unless you can make my 8-iron travel 170 back home like it does here in the mountains.

VanRam,

1. Are you calling Ryan Ludwick a Bo Hart type? Ludwick is finally healthy, been given a chance, essentially is in his prime, and under club control for cheap! The Cardinals are idiots if they trade him, unless some club wants to give up young major league players who are ready to play SS and 2B.

2. Of course the $$ Holliday will command after 2009, with Scott Boras as his agent, doesn’t bother you. You don’t own the Cardinals!

3. Any sane mind wouldn’t bank on Greene locking anything down next spring. Everything said on here about him is speculation, nothing more.

It gets mentioned occasionally on here, but, Ankiel is a Scott Boras agent also. And, Ankiel is a free agent after 2009, like Holliday. If Ankiel has a strong season, what’s that going to cost ownership?

Where should money be spent this year and looking towards 2010? The back end of the bullpen and the middle infield are immediate needs, period.

Fellow Cardinals fans, get off of the fascination with Holliday!

After reading the PD about 5 minutes ago, Mo says the Holloday-Ludwick deal is dead. But we all know how those famous last words go…So let’s say the deal is off and everybody stays put, but we keep with the Ludwick gets injured argument: would it be so bad to call up Rasmus (granted he hasn’t already made the team and Schu is out of a job), insert him into CF and shift Ankiel over to left field?

My preference is to keep Ludwick and move Ankiel. I know Ank has talent but I just don’t see him ever staying healthy over the long haul. Ludwick is a good solid player who is a great quality for a workable price. Boras will get Holliday LOTS of money but not from the Cards. One year is not worth it.

it is a huge gamble. right now ludwick is a great sell high candidate. mo would be crazy not to shop him. but the key word here is SHOP. if you don’t get the value you desire there is no loss in keeping him, even if he goes downhill. if the right deal came along, escobar? i would trade. but only for a three or four year starter that would fill a hole like shortstop or proven reliable starting pitcher.