Matt Holliday? Let the Buyer Beware
Interesting stuff from El Diablo (that would be Joe Strauss) on the Cardinals’ keen interest in Colorado LF Matt Holliday.
Holliday is an attractive hitter, but his career home/road splits are a matter of concern.
I pointed this out on my radio show on Monday, and I know many of you are well aware of the stats, but for those who didn’t see the numbers, this is a comparison of what Holliday has done for his career at Coors Field as opposed to his hitting on the road … and all numbers cited here are from STATS LLC:
BATTING AVERAGE
Coors: .357
Road: .280
Difference: minus 77 points.
ONBASE PERCENTAGE
Coors: .423
Road: .348
Difference: minus 75 points.
SLUGGING PERCENTAGE
Coors: .645
Road: .455
Difference: minus 190 points.
Wednesday, as always, we had my friend Joe Sheehan of The Baseball Prospectus on our Team 1380 radio show. I mentioned the home/road splits to Sheehan, and he downplayed them to an extent, correctly noting that Holliday plays a lot of road games in the NL West, and the division has some true pitcher-friendly parks in San Diego and San Francisco. Point taken, Joe.
But Holliday hasn’t ripped it up in games played at Arizona, which is kind to hitters. He has three homers and a .435 SLG in 131 ABs at Chase Field.
He hasn’t ripped it up at Dodger Stadium in LA, either: four homers and a .415 SLG in 135 ABs.
I did some additional research and discovered that Holliday’s road splits have improved some over the last two, three seasons.
Over the last three seasons, Holliday’s road line is .296 / .370 / .486
Over the last two seasons, Holliday’s road line is .304 / .389 / .486
So it’s not as if the guy is Dante Bichette, who couldn’t rake away from Coors. Holliday also runs well (28 stolen bases in 30 attempts last season). And last season Holliday was a +11 defender according to the Dewan Fielding Bible system; that ranked No. 5 among all major-league LF in 2008. He’s also done well as a No. 4 hitter in the lineup.
Clearly, he’s a player.
But there’s also the salary. Holliday’s pay jumps to $13.5 million in 2009, the final year of his contract. His agent is Scott Boras. Holliday has said that he wants a six-year deal after the contract expires in 2009. I don’t know if Holliday and Boras are firm on that; I’m just passing along what he has said in the past.
So what kind of contract are we looking at to keep Holliday in a St. Louis uniform?
There is a market price.
Are we talking Alfonso Soriano dollars? The Cubs will pay Soriano, their LF, an average of $17 million a year through 2014. But Soriano signed that deal before the 2007 season; will Boras insist on more?
The Astros signed free agent LF Carlos Lee to a six-year, $100 million deal before the 2007 season. That’s an average of $16.6 million through 2012.
Given the money spent on FA left fielders in the NL Central, I’d find it hard to believe that Boras and Holliday would accept a below-market price from the Cardinals. And keep in mind that Boras already has received a $25 million a year offer from the Dodgers for free-agent LF Manny Ramirez.
Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols is the team’s highest-paid player, with $16 million due in 2009 and again in 2010 with a team option for another $16 million in 2011. Is Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. willing to bring in Holliday and pay him more than Pujols? And why would Holliday settle for less?
Again, it isn’t that I don’t think Holliday is a good player. He’s very good. But the Cardinals have Ryan Ludwick in LF. Sure, there’s a question of whether Ludwick can repeat his smashing success of 2008, when he batted .299 with 37 homers and 137 113 RBIs and finished No. 2 (to Pujols) in the NL with a .591 slugging percentage.
Sure, Holliday has a more established track record than Ludwick. I understand all of that. I also know that Ludwick has more holes in his swing than does Holliday. I know there’s a danger of Ludwick being a one-year wonder, or whatever. That’s an important factor in this: what do the Cardinals really believe about Ludwick? Are they concerned that he’ll regress?
(And I mention Ludwick because he apparently will be offered up to the Rockies as part of a deal for Holliday).
But suppose Ludwick can do a reasonable job of carrying that success forward? Luddy is arbitration eligible, so he’s going to make a few million in 2009. But Holliday is a great deal more expensive than Ludwick. And that must be factored in.
Ludwick represents two risks (1) health; (2) the absence of a lengthy performance record at the MLB level.
But Holliday also represents risks (1) the Coors Effect; (2) huge financial investment.
I know the thin-air Coors Effect has decreased since they started dulling the baseballs by putting them into humidors before using them in games.
Still: Holliday was a decent minor-league hitter who exploded offensively once he started swinging at Coors Field.
Holliday Road isn’t always smooth …
Holliday’s career road OPS is an ordinary .803 … which is right there with another player who has drawn interest from the Cardinals: Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson, who has a career road OPS of .802. But the difference is, Johnson isn’t going to make between $16 million and $20 million a year to play for the Cardinals.
I don’t believe for a minute that DeWitt would give up Ludwick and/or viable prospects to rent Holliday for a season, then lose him to free agency after 2009.
Manager Tony La Russa is said to be pushing for this deal, and I can see why. La Russa’s own contract expires after 2009, so I don’t blame him for thinking about the short-term play. (If, in fact, Holliday will outhit Ludwick in 2009).
I’d have to assume the Cardinals would only make the deal if they were confident of signing Holliday to remain in the STL beyond 2009. And if that’s the case, I’m still trying to figure out how the Cardinals would plan on fitting Holliday’s salary onto a $100 million payroll when they have so many other needs to fill: starting pitching, legit LH bullpen help, pop in the middle infield, etc. And they’re not that far from having to negotiate a new deal with Pujols.
If DeWitt wants to spend these kind of dollars on Holliday, well, it’s his money. No sweat here. I’m all in favor of DeWallet coming open; manegement’s “low-hanging fruit” approach to spending is tiresome. But going all in on Holliday seems to go against the management’s philosophy.
I also looked up some other numbers on Holliday.
How does he hit in NL Central ballparks?
The big fella has enjoyed the new Busch Stadium, having cranked out five homers in 39 at-bats, with a robust batting average (.385), OBP (.478) and SLG (.872). But it’s only 39 ABs; not much to go on there.
Elsewhere:
Miller Park in Milwaukee: 46 ABs, three homers, .304 BA, .385 OBP, .543 SLG.
Minute Maid Park in Houston: 37 ABs, 0 homers, .297 BA, .333 OBP, .378 SLG
Great American in Cincinnati: 52 ABs, 3 homers, .269 BA, .309 OBP, .442 SLG
PNC Park in Pittsburgh: 75 ABs, 4 homers, .307 BA, .372 OBP, .480 SLG
Wrigley Field in Chicago: 48 ABs, 1 homer, .229 BA, .339 OBP , .313 SLG
These are all small sample sizes. Discard them. But still, I can’t help but keep staring at Holliday’s pedestrian OPS on the road for his career. He has 44 road homers in 1,303 ABs.
Holliday is a marquee name, and he’d help the Cardinals.
But would he provide value for the dollar?
Would it be wiser to invest the DeWallet dollars to fill other needs?
It makes for a spirited debate.
Please discuss, and thanks in advance…
-B
I’d rather spend that money on a closer.
Im all for the Trade, I know the splits but not sure its 100% because of the field itself, some players are just better hitters at home, and im of the belief that all players are better hitters when they are batting ahead of or behind Pujols… DeWitt has said before he would increase payroll of the “right player” and like i have said before if there really is such a thing, then Holliday is it.. Worst comes to worst they can always trade him
I think his splits say keep away.
His road splits have improved over the last two years, but he’s also going to be 29 come January.
Outside of Coors, Holliday’s career numbers are 280/348/455/803 in 1451 PAs.
Outside of Coors, Chris Duncan’s career numbers are 271/358/495/854 in 998 PAs–and a portion of Cardinal nation think Duncan’s career has been a bust, even though Duncan has 51 points of OPS over Halliday’s career road numbers.
In roughly 2/3rds of the PAs, Duncan has 50 HRs, compared to Halliday’s 44 on the road.
I’m hoping the sabreheads on the Cards veto this move.
Dave
Good report here Bernie! To tell you the truth, I just do not know what to think. As you said, TLR is pushing for this deal. Is there something else out there that we do not know about yet? If not, I think Ludwick deserves another opportunity here in St. Louis. But then again on the other hand how do you clear the bottleneck of outfielders if teams are only asking for Ludwick? It also seems that Mo has Rasmus on the super hi-way going to Busch. If the deal goes down for Ludwick to go to the Rockies does that make Rasmus an untouchable player? As you pointed out the Cards, it would seem would have to negotiate Holliday’s huge contract. What do you do about pitching if you now can’t afford to go after a free agent like Fuentes? But as you said, NY will buy him. Mo is going to have to be very creative fill those holes in the bullpen and in the infield.
I agree with Bernie. I don’t know what other players the Cards would have to include in the deal, but my main problem is investing that much money in position players when much cheaper options exist who are doing a pretty good job (Ludwick). With Carpenter iffy, we need to invest in our pitching. Offense wins games during the regular season, defense and pitching in the postseason. If we made this trade, it would hamstring us for years as far as more pitching is concerned. If we’re going to pony up the players to get a stud, and then pay him enough to keep him, I’d like to see a stud starting pitcher.
“I know the thin-air Coors Effect has decreased since they started dulling the baseballs by putting them into humidors before using them in games.” BM
I would like to clarify the role of the humidor. I am a resident of Denver. Unlike the St. Louis area, Denver has an extremely low humidity level. Due to this low humidity level the baseballs were losing moisture content throughout the season. A drier baseball becomes harder and lighter than a regulation baseball that is used say in St Louis. This drier baseball impacted the pitchers grip as well as the distance balls were being hit. The humidor was introduced to MAINTAIN the normal moisture level of a baseball. If you think about the premise, it would make a lot of sense if MLB would do this in every ballpark. This would ensure consistency of the balls used in every park. By the way, MLB did approve the use of the humidor and its use is regulated by MLB.
I agree with all the points in the article, and also what George said. I don’t believe that outfield is really a place a team should spend a lot of money. Unless the player is a gold glove center fielder. Corner hitters that hit .270-.300 with 30ish home runs are not that hard to come up with. The big dollars should be left to putting big time talent at premium positions such as SS, 3B, and 2B. If they’re going to spend 10+ million on a position player why not try and bring in Furcal. In my opinion he’s not much riskier than Holliday. Then you have two impact bats Lud/Furcal to just having Holliday.
On another note with the flood of dependable 200+ inning starters the cards may be able to buy low on a three year deal for, Penny, Garland, or trade for Vazquez. I don’t think anybody is confident in Carpenter after what happened with Mulder. Moral here, address the needs we have, don’t monkey with what is already successful.
And if im not mistaken Ludwick was a higher draft pick than Holliday and is only a year older. Dumb deal.
Bernie,
I live in Denver and Holliday is a nice player but not worth the Boras ransom. And I don’t care what the numbers say, this guy is a butcher in the field. He makes Chris Duncan look like Lonnie Smith and Lonnie Smith look like Paul Blair. Plus, to pay him even close to what El Hombre makes would be criminal. He is not close to the complete player Pujols is. Maybe the thin air’s getting to me, but that’s my two.
Good evening B,
Very well written article about the Matt Holliday possible trade. I agree with you that this trade is not the best for us; I always appreciate the statistics you provide in supporting your comments.
I would prefer to keep Ludwick, and pursue our other needs.
Pitching and defense!!!
Thank you!
Hi Bernie -
Great informative writing, as usual from you. A couple notes that popped into my head..
You made a point of the disparity between Hollidays road and home numbers. Yes, he does play better at Coors.. but MOST hitters do hit better in their familiar home park. For comparison, look at Pujols, undoubtedly one of the best hitters in the game. While perhaps not *quite* as pronounced, he produced much better numbers at home than on the road.
Pujols Home - .380BA, .481 OBP, .694 SLUG
Away - .335BA (-45 points), .443 OBP (-48 points), .613 (-81 points)
In addition, Holliday was better at Coors than Ludwick was at Busch. I think the time is now to get maximum trade value for Ludwick. I think he’ll level off in 2009 to a solid .270’s hitter with 20ish homers and 75-80 RBI. Conversely, he might revert to his lifetime averages and sink much lower, perhaps even ending up back in the minors where he has spent so many years (for a reason).
Now, larger picture, if the Cards front office is going to play penny pinchers again this year as they have so many times in recent history, I’d rather they spend the money on Sabathia. I think his addition would have much more of an impact than upgrading with Holliday in the OF.
Thanks Bernie and keep up the great writing and broadcasting on 1380am. I listen every day.