I’d rather spend that money on a closer.

Im all for the Trade, I know the splits but not sure its 100% because of the field itself, some players are just better hitters at home, and im of the belief that all players are better hitters when they are batting ahead of or behind Pujols… DeWitt has said before he would increase payroll of the “right player” and like i have said before if there really is such a thing, then Holliday is it.. Worst comes to worst they can always trade him

I think his splits say keep away.

His road splits have improved over the last two years, but he’s also going to be 29 come January.

Outside of Coors, Holliday’s career numbers are 280/348/455/803 in 1451 PAs.

Outside of Coors, Chris Duncan’s career numbers are 271/358/495/854 in 998 PAs–and a portion of Cardinal nation think Duncan’s career has been a bust, even though Duncan has 51 points of OPS over Halliday’s career road numbers.

In roughly 2/3rds of the PAs, Duncan has 50 HRs, compared to Halliday’s 44 on the road.

I’m hoping the sabreheads on the Cards veto this move.

Dave

Good report here Bernie! To tell you the truth, I just do not know what to think. As you said, TLR is pushing for this deal. Is there something else out there that we do not know about yet? If not, I think Ludwick deserves another opportunity here in St. Louis. But then again on the other hand how do you clear the bottleneck of outfielders if teams are only asking for Ludwick? It also seems that Mo has Rasmus on the super hi-way going to Busch. If the deal goes down for Ludwick to go to the Rockies does that make Rasmus an untouchable player? As you pointed out the Cards, it would seem would have to negotiate Holliday’s huge contract. What do you do about pitching if you now can’t afford to go after a free agent like Fuentes? But as you said, NY will buy him. Mo is going to have to be very creative fill those holes in the bullpen and in the infield.

I agree with Bernie. I don’t know what other players the Cards would have to include in the deal, but my main problem is investing that much money in position players when much cheaper options exist who are doing a pretty good job (Ludwick). With Carpenter iffy, we need to invest in our pitching. Offense wins games during the regular season, defense and pitching in the postseason. If we made this trade, it would hamstring us for years as far as more pitching is concerned. If we’re going to pony up the players to get a stud, and then pay him enough to keep him, I’d like to see a stud starting pitcher.

“I know the thin-air Coors Effect has decreased since they started dulling the baseballs by putting them into humidors before using them in games.” BM

I would like to clarify the role of the humidor. I am a resident of Denver. Unlike the St. Louis area, Denver has an extremely low humidity level. Due to this low humidity level the baseballs were losing moisture content throughout the season. A drier baseball becomes harder and lighter than a regulation baseball that is used say in St Louis. This drier baseball impacted the pitchers grip as well as the distance balls were being hit. The humidor was introduced to MAINTAIN the normal moisture level of a baseball. If you think about the premise, it would make a lot of sense if MLB would do this in every ballpark. This would ensure consistency of the balls used in every park. By the way, MLB did approve the use of the humidor and its use is regulated by MLB.

I agree with all the points in the article, and also what George said. I don’t believe that outfield is really a place a team should spend a lot of money. Unless the player is a gold glove center fielder. Corner hitters that hit .270-.300 with 30ish home runs are not that hard to come up with. The big dollars should be left to putting big time talent at premium positions such as SS, 3B, and 2B. If they’re going to spend 10+ million on a position player why not try and bring in Furcal. In my opinion he’s not much riskier than Holliday. Then you have two impact bats Lud/Furcal to just having Holliday.

On another note with the flood of dependable 200+ inning starters the cards may be able to buy low on a three year deal for, Penny, Garland, or trade for Vazquez. I don’t think anybody is confident in Carpenter after what happened with Mulder. Moral here, address the needs we have, don’t monkey with what is already successful.

And if im not mistaken Ludwick was a higher draft pick than Holliday and is only a year older. Dumb deal.

Bernie,

I live in Denver and Holliday is a nice player but not worth the Boras ransom. And I don’t care what the numbers say, this guy is a butcher in the field. He makes Chris Duncan look like Lonnie Smith and Lonnie Smith look like Paul Blair. Plus, to pay him even close to what El Hombre makes would be criminal. He is not close to the complete player Pujols is. Maybe the thin air’s getting to me, but that’s my two.

Good evening B,
Very well written article about the Matt Holliday possible trade. I agree with you that this trade is not the best for us; I always appreciate the statistics you provide in supporting your comments.
I would prefer to keep Ludwick, and pursue our other needs.
Pitching and defense!!!
Thank you!

Hi Bernie -

Great informative writing, as usual from you. A couple notes that popped into my head..

You made a point of the disparity between Hollidays road and home numbers. Yes, he does play better at Coors.. but MOST hitters do hit better in their familiar home park. For comparison, look at Pujols, undoubtedly one of the best hitters in the game. While perhaps not *quite* as pronounced, he produced much better numbers at home than on the road.

Pujols Home - .380BA, .481 OBP, .694 SLUG
Away - .335BA (-45 points), .443 OBP (-48 points), .613 (-81 points)

In addition, Holliday was better at Coors than Ludwick was at Busch. I think the time is now to get maximum trade value for Ludwick. I think he’ll level off in 2009 to a solid .270’s hitter with 20ish homers and 75-80 RBI. Conversely, he might revert to his lifetime averages and sink much lower, perhaps even ending up back in the minors where he has spent so many years (for a reason).

Now, larger picture, if the Cards front office is going to play penny pinchers again this year as they have so many times in recent history, I’d rather they spend the money on Sabathia. I think his addition would have much more of an impact than upgrading with Holliday in the OF.

Thanks Bernie and keep up the great writing and broadcasting on 1380am. I listen every day.

Thank you all for the enlightened comments. This is really a good discussion, which I’d hoped for.

About Pujols home/road:

If you look at his entire career, he is amazingly (but not surprisingly) consistent.

Home: .336 BA, .430 OBP, .623 SLG
Away: .333 BA, .420 OBP, .625 SLG

Pujols in the three seasons at the “new” Busch:

Home: .339 BA, .444 OBP, .622 SLG
Away: .337 BA, .437 OBP, .636 SLG

Does that say it all about Pujols, or what?

-B

After guesstimating arbitration raises for Ankiel, Ludwick, and Wellemyer the team has rougly 80 million committed for next season. That leaves 20-25 million to spend on payroll for 2009. You still need 2 middle infielders, a left handed reliever, and IMO a dependable starter to offset the potential unavailability of Carpenter. To realistically accomplish this at least one of these holes will have to be filled via trade for a pre-arbitration eligible player. An example scenario: trade Ankiel for Kelly Johnson, sign Edgar Renteria to a 1 year 5 mill contract, sign Jeremy Affeldt to a 2 year deal paying him 3 million this year, 5 million next, and sign AJ Burnett to a relatively backloaded contract paying him 11 million this year. That’s not necessarily feasible/possible but something similiar will have to be done to fill the team’s multiple holes and maintain a budget near around 100 million. If you trade Ludwick for Holliday that leaves you only 8-12 million left and those same roster holes still vacant. It drastically alters the payroll flexibility moving forward for 2009, let alone the long term implications IF (Big if) you can sign Holliday to an extension. Watching the likes of Cezar Izturis and Adam Kennedy give away at bats was painful to watch last season and I have no interest in seeing a similiar lack of production from our middle infielders this year. I’d rather see our dollars and trade chips used to upgrade these positions. We have no middle infielders near major league ready as Niko Vazquez and Pete Kozma are 2-3 years away at least and it’s highly likely that only one of them becomes a productive major league regular(my money’s on Niko). Tyler Greene is a useful utility infielder but not someone we should count on as a starter. If I was the GM (who doesn’t dream of being the GM by the way)I’d push to move Ankiel and/or Skip and at least one of our 3b prospects (Freese and Craig)and minor league outfielders (Jay, Jones, Barton)this offseason. I’d also check in on the availability of Javy Vazquez. He’s as dependable as they get and has pitched better during his two stints in the NL (Montreal and Arizona). He’d give you 200 innings, 180 k’s and an era in the mid to high 3’s for 23 million over the next 2 years. The Cubs obviously aren’t content with their rotation as they are heavily pursuing Peavy, and we shouldn’t be either, with or without Carpenter. If Lohse and Wellemyer regress at all next year and Carp isn’t at full strength than this rotation is a mess. You’ll have Pineiro killing the bullpen until he gets released and prospects filling in that are still 1-2 years from being major league ready.

I am all for the Cardinals having a Holiday, but not if they have to trade Ludwick.

Let’s say Ludwick is a one year wonder and he can only hit say 23 HR’s and 84 RBI. The Cardinals would be paying and extra what….9 million for 12-15 hr’s and 35-45 rbi in 2009 alone. Is that really worth it?
I have to agree with Bernie there is no room for him on the payroll after 2009.
I am all for the Cardinals spending more to help keep the team winning. I am all for them signing so key vets. Yet I have to believe that the Cardinals have to see that they have better ways to spend that money than on a LF. I would rather see the Cardinals add pitching, a true number one, and lots of bullpen help. The Cardinals need better bats in the middle of the infield. The last thing this team needs is another outfielder at that cost.
The more I think about this the more foolish I believe the move is. The Cardinals will give away Ludwick for Holiday who could walk after this year. A move that would truely help the Rockies, yet they will not entertain thoughts of Peavy. Splain that one Lucy. Peavy would be a great addition to the Cardinals than Holiday. The Cardinals would have him for three more years for sure. This trade would not insure the Cardinals anything after 09.
One last thought what if Ludwick is not a one year wonder. What could he do for the Rockies in Coors? How bad could this trade blow up on the Cardinals. Ludwick sign with the Rockies for 4 years 48 million and avg 40 hr’s and 120 rbi for the Rockies. Holiday plays the 09 season for the Cardinals and signs with the Cubs.

Hey Bernie,

Maybe I missed it, but I’m still unclear as to what exactly your take is here. Are you concerned that a transition out of Coors Field would bring his numbers way down, or are you simply suggesting a guy who hits so much worse on the road is a guy to stay away from?

As you say, ever since the humidor has been put into play in Denver, I really feel that the era of the Vinny Castilla-esque Coors inflation has ended. Is it reasonable to suggest that Holliday’s home numbers could be just as good at Busch as they were at Coors? Is he perhaps one of these guys who hits way better at a park he plays in 81 times a year, or is he simply another product of the thin air, and a potential big contract bust elsewhere?

Thanks for the info.

From my perspective, this is an easy question.

There is no way you do this deal if you are the Cardinals.

Obtaining Holliday at this point is little different than signing a top dollar free agent. The Cards would have to get Holliday to sign an extension to make the deal worthwhile in terms of the players they’d give to Colorado (Ludwick included). However, that means the Cards would probably commit themselves to paying Holliday $17-20 million a year for 5+ years beyond 2009.

With that much money committed over the life of the contract, there is essentially zero chance that Holliday can “outplay” his contract. The BEST the Cards could hope for is for him to give them production on the field equivalent to what they are paying him. If he drops off at all due to the effect of moving out of Coors, aging, etc., the Cards are going to end up with another guy who they are overpaying based on his real production - and if he falls off a lot they could be seriously overpaying before the contract expires.

If Holliday were already signed for about $12 million a year for the next four or five years, the situation would be a lot different. But he’s not.

Bottom line - as it is, the “upside” of Holliday (compared to his payroll implications) is pretty close to zero, while his downside could be substantial.

It’s possible that Ludwick will implode and not be worth the few millions he’s set to make in 2009. However, if that happens, the Cards can get away from his “failure” in 2010 and beyond without destorying the payroll for years to come.

Ludwick simply offers a much better risk-to-reward ratio going forward than Holliday when no one can have a legitimate, overly positive feeling that Holliday will contiune to put up the kind of numbers that have “earned” him a $20 million per year deal when he leaves Coors.

-B,

First, thanks for the good read.

Next, minor correction to: ” . . . whether Ludwick can repeat his smashing success of 2008, when he batted .299 with 37 homers and 137 RBIs . . . “.

Should be “113 RBIs”.

Finally, while I wholeheartedly appreciate the stats, stat analysis, and stat comparisons, I find myself questioning why it is so commonly accepted and “important” nowdays for the so-called knowledgeable fan to devote so much time dissecting MLB payroll and salaries. This is not a question directed solely “at” you. It’s just a pervasive phenomenon that seems relatively new to The Game; a combined by-product of free agency, Sabermetrics, Billy Beane-ism, and Moneyball. Perhaps it’s here to stay. But to put it bluntly, I don’t care for the vast amount of attention paid to baseball’s “economic efficiencies”. I think it tends to make even the average fan ruthlessly fancy themselves as a wannabe GM and creates a culture of intolerable cynics/critics of The Game. It sucks the fun out of baseball.

To be fair, overall I think your reports strike a decent balance between traditional stat analysis and the now-vogue micro-economics of MLB. I know fans have become interested in this stuff. But I liken it to my love of sausages and hot dogs . . . . .

I’d much rather savor the product than perpetually have to hear how it’s made.

Keep up the good work.

This reminds me of when Jack Clark left St. Louis and we nedded an impact bat. I remember we picked up a home run hitter from Atlanta. His numbers in Atlanta were great but he didn’t have the power to jack the ball out of old Busch Stadium. This sounds like history repeating itself.

Bern,

I wish Ludwick had 137 RBI’s but he only had 113. :o)
The points you make are all valid. I think the concerns make sense but I come down on the side that Ludwick is a one year wonder. I know I could be completely wrong about this but Ludwick has been very injury prone in his career and he has only had one great year. Holliday has been doing it for years and he’s younger.

KP

You summed it all up exactly, but bottom line…the more money they spend on their starting outfield is fewer dollars on the real need with this team…middle infield and bullpen help. The Cards outfield was very good last-year and we’re hoping for a healthy Duncan this year and Ankiel for a healthy full season and the eventual promotion of Rasmus. Outfield is the ONLY spot on this team that they’re overstacked. Who can forget that Ludwick wasn’t even a full time starter until late May because of the depth in that outfield. It just doesn’t make sense!

Great numbers analysis, as usual. It would be a shame to part with Ludwick after his breakout season, the guy has few holes in his game. His lengthy injury history seems to be the only downside.

I understand the whole sell high buy low arguement but doesn’t this deal fly in the face of the direction the Cardinals are headed?

Bernie, one last comment. Have we officially had enough of the Dewitt/Dewallet joke? Quite frankly it is juvenile and beneath a journalist of your caliber.

Sorry, but Holliday just can’t seem to hit at sea level.

As much as I love Ludwick, he doesn’t offer the protection Albert needs. Same with Glaus and Ankiel. Teams don’t take them seriously enough to give Albert the pitches to hit. Adding Holliday to this team could make the offense as fearful as 2004-2005. I admit it seems to make more sense to put that money into a SS or SP. But show me a SS or starting pitcher that is LESS of an injury risk than Matt Holliday. Holliday makes Pujols more productive (imagine the possibilities). A more productive Pujols takes the pressure off of the pitching staff. Which alleviates the bullpen problems. There is just not enough respect for Ludwick and he is very capable of a 25 HR 90 RBI season next year. A lineup of FA SS, Rasmus, Pujols, Holliday, Ankiel, Glaus, Molina, Pitcher, Lopez would finally give us a deep lineup capable of damage in the 5,6 and 7 holes. I’m sick of Yadi batting 6 and Kennedy/Lopez batting 7. And let’s say Holliday leaves…we get two additional 1st round picks.

You want to convince Albert that this is where he wants to finish his career? Make this deal, find a way to extend Holliday and show Albert that he won’t always be a one man show. Not to mention, this is a way to protect ourselves if Albert did leave after 2011. My only concern here is the money…if we extend Holliday, there may be just enough money for Ankiel. There’s no way we can afford Glaus, unless he took a major discount. A Holliday extension means we have to find a bargain at SS, 2B and closer, and it means we better have TONS of confidence in Tyler Greene, Brett Wallace, David Freese, Chris Perez and Jason Motte. The other question being, signing Holliday means Brett Wallace is 3B or bust in STL. Can’t have Wallace and Holliday’s lack of D in the same OF.

And finally, we need to keep Skip S. under all circumstances. He has too much value as a 4th OF, and is a reliable replacement if Rasmus doesn’t cut it or Ankiel is hurt. He’s a solid PH, kills righties and has the ability to leadoff if our first option didn’t work out. Holliday in LF, Rasmus in CF, Ankiel in RF and Schumaker and Mather off the bench. We won’t get real value for Skip, and he’s still cheap, so keep him around!

If they can get Clint Barmes or Jeff Baker out of this deal, make it happen. We can fill a hole and make the lineup more dangerous/consistent at the same time. Too bad Fuentes is a FA, I’d say make this a blockbuster. At this point, I’d be okay with moving Rasmus as the centerpiece, but keep in mind, they already have a stud CF prospect coming to the majors…Dexter Fowler.

Love the Holliday Road reference. If the Cardinals go after Ben Sheets, that means you have to drop a “Look kids, Big Ben” on us at some time.

Two of the factors that BM failed to mention and I thought worth consideration regarding the potential of a Holiday/Ludwick swap are the factors of 1) How many times last year did R. Ludwick strikeout in key crucial, clutch situations after A.P. had either been pitched around or walked intentionally and eventually ended up strking out leaving runner(s) on base? (Ludwick struck out 146 times in 538 plate appearances, Holiday struck out 104 times in 539 plate appearances) and 2) although R. Ludwick hit 37 HR last year how many were a direct result of the “Albert factor” and the fact that he hit immediately behind him in the order and how much would M. Holiday benefit because of the “Albert factor” versus his splits away from Coors? Holiday would be the “big bat” that will make StL an offensive force once again in the NL Central and give Albert some back-up. This is a “no brainer” either for one year or longer term if they could reach agreement with Holiday on a contract as part of the trade.

Good analysis Bernie. If nothing else, this goes to show what a precarious position Johnny Mo is in. The fans have been killing the Cards for their reluctance to make a splash. We have been critical of their willingness to spend. They are criticized for overvaluing their own talent. The fans, the media, and Tony have essentially begged Mo to go out and prove that he has the stones to make a move….and now that he has (allegedly), WE are all unsure if he should pull the trigger. I don’t know what they pay John Mozeliak, but surely it isn’t enough.

As to the deal itself, it would almost suredly be only the first of many moves in restructing the roster and payroll. A straightup swap does not repair the holes in this team, and Mo certainly must know this.

Nice post. This trade might force TLR to bat Da Mang in clean-up, otherwise I say no. There are bigger holes that need to be filled.

I’m not arguing for or against trading for Matt Holliday, because the key is how much money and time the Cardinals are willing to invest in such a player, but I did just want to add the following regarding the concerns about the home-away splits. On the road last year, Holliday:

- Hit over .300
- Had an on-base pct. of over .400
- Stole nearly twice as many bases than he did at home
- Hit well at Busch (as another writer pointed out)
- Played as commendable defense (I presume) as he did at home

And, he’s just 28, with several prime years still likely left, and will likely hit behind Pujols in the lineup.

Again, it’s more of a question of how much money do you invest in any one player, but in terms of home-away splits, they are not really as dramatic as they appear. He’s a star player and should continue so wherever he ends up playing.

There is no way in the world they are going to do this. First they would have to spend money. Second it makes no sense. Third they need a closr more than anything. If they want to spend big money on a outfield spot go sign Manny!

Great stuff, Bern…

You gave the home/away splits for Holliday’s BA, SLG, and OBP, but the number that jumped out to me was the HR differential in the home/away split:

Career road HRs: 44

Career home HR: 84

Just 44 HRs for his career away from Coors Field! Luddy nearly matched half of Holliday’s 44 career road HRs. In 2008 Luddy knocked out 19 road homers.

Bernie, what is a reasonable trade proposal for Holliday? Luddy, Anderson, Todd, and Boggs? Is this too much? If Mo could swing a deal without giving up either Motte or Rasmus, or even Perez, then I’d have to say go for it.

Great stuff, Bern…

Well, I’ve read the comments and arguments for keeping or trading Ludwick for Holliday and have to say they all are good points. It’s a given the middle infield will see a new combo of occupants no matter what happens with the Ludwick / Holliday deal. And the brass has said they want to upgrade there so I think that is going to happen. So if all that is done, what do we have left for pitching? It would appear there would only be enough $$$ to get a back end rotation guy and a lesser LHRP or two than say a Brian Fuentes. If other players are shipped out with Ludwick what would that leave us for a balance that could be used as trade chips to go out and get the needs we would have to get to fill in the bullpen. Of course that is all predicated on the idea that the Cards sign FA to fill their middle infield. It’s just to early to tell how the dominoes will fall if the Ludwick / Holliday deal goes through. If it goes through we have to give Mo some room to dress the rest of the teams needs. It was apparent to me last year that Pujols was definately pitched around no matter who hit in that four hole. I was one of those fans that advocated for an impact bat that carried more presence. Perhaps Ludwick would get more respect this year, thus allowing Pujols to get more pitches to hit…I do not know, but Holliday would bring it to the plate. I’m trusting TLR’s judgment on this, but at the same time I am a Ludwick fan. This is a very intriguing development to say the least. The comments have been outstanding. Great work Bernie!

Let’s look at the big free agent outfield contracts signed in the last couple of years: Beltran, Lee, Fukudome, Soriano… none are worth the money. I like Holliday, but you CANNOT pay him more the Albert. Stick with Ludwick and go after some pitching. We lost the playoff on the mound, not at the plate.

Hey Bernie, I agree with your hesitation. I think the best deals are the ones you don’t make……I mean Ludwick has earned his opportunity to prove it in St.Louis, he hit a ton, and went to the all-star game….and more importantly he won’t break the bank so we can puruse other needs…Aloha from a Cards fan in hawaii

I’d much rather see the Cards upgrade offensively at short and 2nd base. They’ve got a fine outfield if Ankiel can stay healthy and Ludwick puts up numbers even remotely close to this year’s. A more potent line-up throughout might help prevent all those stranded runners this past season.

Thanks, but no thanks Mo… If you’re going to throw Ludwick and young talent out for a high-priced marquee name, go after Jake Peavy, not Matt Holliday.

Just my two cents.

Hello…We came in fourth place last season…with Ludwick hitting a career year…I say shake things up and if we can trade for Halliday go for it…I have a feeling he would kill it at Busch. I don’t understand why people want to cling to things that didn’t work in the past. 4th place remember