Matt Holliday? Let the Buyer Beware
Interesting stuff from El Diablo (that would be Joe Strauss) on the Cardinals’ keen interest in Colorado LF Matt Holliday.
Holliday is an attractive hitter, but his career home/road splits are a matter of concern.
I pointed this out on my radio show on Monday, and I know many of you are well aware of the stats, but for those who didn’t see the numbers, this is a comparison of what Holliday has done for his career at Coors Field as opposed to his hitting on the road … and all numbers cited here are from STATS LLC:
BATTING AVERAGE
Coors: .357
Road: .280
Difference: minus 77 points.
ONBASE PERCENTAGE
Coors: .423
Road: .348
Difference: minus 75 points.
SLUGGING PERCENTAGE
Coors: .645
Road: .455
Difference: minus 190 points.
Wednesday, as always, we had my friend Joe Sheehan of The Baseball Prospectus on our Team 1380 radio show. I mentioned the home/road splits to Sheehan, and he downplayed them to an extent, correctly noting that Holliday plays a lot of road games in the NL West, and the division has some true pitcher-friendly parks in San Diego and San Francisco. Point taken, Joe.
But Holliday hasn’t ripped it up in games played at Arizona, which is kind to hitters. He has three homers and a .435 SLG in 131 ABs at Chase Field.
He hasn’t ripped it up at Dodger Stadium in LA, either: four homers and a .415 SLG in 135 ABs.
I did some additional research and discovered that Holliday’s road splits have improved some over the last two, three seasons.
Over the last three seasons, Holliday’s road line is .296 / .370 / .486
Over the last two seasons, Holliday’s road line is .304 / .389 / .486
So it’s not as if the guy is Dante Bichette, who couldn’t rake away from Coors. Holliday also runs well (28 stolen bases in 30 attempts last season). And last season Holliday was a +11 defender according to the Dewan Fielding Bible system; that ranked No. 5 among all major-league LF in 2008. He’s also done well as a No. 4 hitter in the lineup.
Clearly, he’s a player.
But there’s also the salary. Holliday’s pay jumps to $13.5 million in 2009, the final year of his contract. His agent is Scott Boras. Holliday has said that he wants a six-year deal after the contract expires in 2009. I don’t know if Holliday and Boras are firm on that; I’m just passing along what he has said in the past.
So what kind of contract are we looking at to keep Holliday in a St. Louis uniform?
There is a market price.
Are we talking Alfonso Soriano dollars? The Cubs will pay Soriano, their LF, an average of $17 million a year through 2014. But Soriano signed that deal before the 2007 season; will Boras insist on more?
The Astros signed free agent LF Carlos Lee to a six-year, $100 million deal before the 2007 season. That’s an average of $16.6 million through 2012.
Given the money spent on FA left fielders in the NL Central, I’d find it hard to believe that Boras and Holliday would accept a below-market price from the Cardinals. And keep in mind that Boras already has received a $25 million a year offer from the Dodgers for free-agent LF Manny Ramirez.
Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols is the team’s highest-paid player, with $16 million due in 2009 and again in 2010 with a team option for another $16 million in 2011. Is Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. willing to bring in Holliday and pay him more than Pujols? And why would Holliday settle for less?
Again, it isn’t that I don’t think Holliday is a good player. He’s very good. But the Cardinals have Ryan Ludwick in LF. Sure, there’s a question of whether Ludwick can repeat his smashing success of 2008, when he batted .299 with 37 homers and 137 113 RBIs and finished No. 2 (to Pujols) in the NL with a .591 slugging percentage.
Sure, Holliday has a more established track record than Ludwick. I understand all of that. I also know that Ludwick has more holes in his swing than does Holliday. I know there’s a danger of Ludwick being a one-year wonder, or whatever. That’s an important factor in this: what do the Cardinals really believe about Ludwick? Are they concerned that he’ll regress?
(And I mention Ludwick because he apparently will be offered up to the Rockies as part of a deal for Holliday).
But suppose Ludwick can do a reasonable job of carrying that success forward? Luddy is arbitration eligible, so he’s going to make a few million in 2009. But Holliday is a great deal more expensive than Ludwick. And that must be factored in.
Ludwick represents two risks (1) health; (2) the absence of a lengthy performance record at the MLB level.
But Holliday also represents risks (1) the Coors Effect; (2) huge financial investment.
I know the thin-air Coors Effect has decreased since they started dulling the baseballs by putting them into humidors before using them in games.
Still: Holliday was a decent minor-league hitter who exploded offensively once he started swinging at Coors Field.
Holliday Road isn’t always smooth …
Holliday’s career road OPS is an ordinary .803 … which is right there with another player who has drawn interest from the Cardinals: Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson, who has a career road OPS of .802. But the difference is, Johnson isn’t going to make between $16 million and $20 million a year to play for the Cardinals.
I don’t believe for a minute that DeWitt would give up Ludwick and/or viable prospects to rent Holliday for a season, then lose him to free agency after 2009.
Manager Tony La Russa is said to be pushing for this deal, and I can see why. La Russa’s own contract expires after 2009, so I don’t blame him for thinking about the short-term play. (If, in fact, Holliday will outhit Ludwick in 2009).
I’d have to assume the Cardinals would only make the deal if they were confident of signing Holliday to remain in the STL beyond 2009. And if that’s the case, I’m still trying to figure out how the Cardinals would plan on fitting Holliday’s salary onto a $100 million payroll when they have so many other needs to fill: starting pitching, legit LH bullpen help, pop in the middle infield, etc. And they’re not that far from having to negotiate a new deal with Pujols.
If DeWitt wants to spend these kind of dollars on Holliday, well, it’s his money. No sweat here. I’m all in favor of DeWallet coming open; manegement’s “low-hanging fruit” approach to spending is tiresome. But going all in on Holliday seems to go against the management’s philosophy.
I also looked up some other numbers on Holliday.
How does he hit in NL Central ballparks?
The big fella has enjoyed the new Busch Stadium, having cranked out five homers in 39 at-bats, with a robust batting average (.385), OBP (.478) and SLG (.872). But it’s only 39 ABs; not much to go on there.
Elsewhere:
Miller Park in Milwaukee: 46 ABs, three homers, .304 BA, .385 OBP, .543 SLG.
Minute Maid Park in Houston: 37 ABs, 0 homers, .297 BA, .333 OBP, .378 SLG
Great American in Cincinnati: 52 ABs, 3 homers, .269 BA, .309 OBP, .442 SLG
PNC Park in Pittsburgh: 75 ABs, 4 homers, .307 BA, .372 OBP, .480 SLG
Wrigley Field in Chicago: 48 ABs, 1 homer, .229 BA, .339 OBP , .313 SLG
These are all small sample sizes. Discard them. But still, I can’t help but keep staring at Holliday’s pedestrian OPS on the road for his career. He has 44 road homers in 1,303 ABs.
Holliday is a marquee name, and he’d help the Cardinals.
But would he provide value for the dollar?
Would it be wiser to invest the DeWallet dollars to fill other needs?
It makes for a spirited debate.
Please discuss, and thanks in advance…
-B
Sorry, but Holliday just can’t seem to hit at sea level.
As much as I love Ludwick, he doesn’t offer the protection Albert needs. Same with Glaus and Ankiel. Teams don’t take them seriously enough to give Albert the pitches to hit. Adding Holliday to this team could make the offense as fearful as 2004-2005. I admit it seems to make more sense to put that money into a SS or SP. But show me a SS or starting pitcher that is LESS of an injury risk than Matt Holliday. Holliday makes Pujols more productive (imagine the possibilities). A more productive Pujols takes the pressure off of the pitching staff. Which alleviates the bullpen problems. There is just not enough respect for Ludwick and he is very capable of a 25 HR 90 RBI season next year. A lineup of FA SS, Rasmus, Pujols, Holliday, Ankiel, Glaus, Molina, Pitcher, Lopez would finally give us a deep lineup capable of damage in the 5,6 and 7 holes. I’m sick of Yadi batting 6 and Kennedy/Lopez batting 7. And let’s say Holliday leaves…we get two additional 1st round picks.
You want to convince Albert that this is where he wants to finish his career? Make this deal, find a way to extend Holliday and show Albert that he won’t always be a one man show. Not to mention, this is a way to protect ourselves if Albert did leave after 2011. My only concern here is the money…if we extend Holliday, there may be just enough money for Ankiel. There’s no way we can afford Glaus, unless he took a major discount. A Holliday extension means we have to find a bargain at SS, 2B and closer, and it means we better have TONS of confidence in Tyler Greene, Brett Wallace, David Freese, Chris Perez and Jason Motte. The other question being, signing Holliday means Brett Wallace is 3B or bust in STL. Can’t have Wallace and Holliday’s lack of D in the same OF.
And finally, we need to keep Skip S. under all circumstances. He has too much value as a 4th OF, and is a reliable replacement if Rasmus doesn’t cut it or Ankiel is hurt. He’s a solid PH, kills righties and has the ability to leadoff if our first option didn’t work out. Holliday in LF, Rasmus in CF, Ankiel in RF and Schumaker and Mather off the bench. We won’t get real value for Skip, and he’s still cheap, so keep him around!
If they can get Clint Barmes or Jeff Baker out of this deal, make it happen. We can fill a hole and make the lineup more dangerous/consistent at the same time. Too bad Fuentes is a FA, I’d say make this a blockbuster. At this point, I’d be okay with moving Rasmus as the centerpiece, but keep in mind, they already have a stud CF prospect coming to the majors…Dexter Fowler.
Love the Holliday Road reference. If the Cardinals go after Ben Sheets, that means you have to drop a “Look kids, Big Ben” on us at some time.
Two of the factors that BM failed to mention and I thought worth consideration regarding the potential of a Holiday/Ludwick swap are the factors of 1) How many times last year did R. Ludwick strikeout in key crucial, clutch situations after A.P. had either been pitched around or walked intentionally and eventually ended up strking out leaving runner(s) on base? (Ludwick struck out 146 times in 538 plate appearances, Holiday struck out 104 times in 539 plate appearances) and 2) although R. Ludwick hit 37 HR last year how many were a direct result of the “Albert factor” and the fact that he hit immediately behind him in the order and how much would M. Holiday benefit because of the “Albert factor” versus his splits away from Coors? Holiday would be the “big bat” that will make StL an offensive force once again in the NL Central and give Albert some back-up. This is a “no brainer” either for one year or longer term if they could reach agreement with Holiday on a contract as part of the trade.
Good analysis Bernie. If nothing else, this goes to show what a precarious position Johnny Mo is in. The fans have been killing the Cards for their reluctance to make a splash. We have been critical of their willingness to spend. They are criticized for overvaluing their own talent. The fans, the media, and Tony have essentially begged Mo to go out and prove that he has the stones to make a move….and now that he has (allegedly), WE are all unsure if he should pull the trigger. I don’t know what they pay John Mozeliak, but surely it isn’t enough.
As to the deal itself, it would almost suredly be only the first of many moves in restructing the roster and payroll. A straightup swap does not repair the holes in this team, and Mo certainly must know this.
Nice post. This trade might force TLR to bat Da Mang in clean-up, otherwise I say no. There are bigger holes that need to be filled.
I’m not arguing for or against trading for Matt Holliday, because the key is how much money and time the Cardinals are willing to invest in such a player, but I did just want to add the following regarding the concerns about the home-away splits. On the road last year, Holliday:
- Hit over .300
- Had an on-base pct. of over .400
- Stole nearly twice as many bases than he did at home
- Hit well at Busch (as another writer pointed out)
- Played as commendable defense (I presume) as he did at home
And, he’s just 28, with several prime years still likely left, and will likely hit behind Pujols in the lineup.
Again, it’s more of a question of how much money do you invest in any one player, but in terms of home-away splits, they are not really as dramatic as they appear. He’s a star player and should continue so wherever he ends up playing.