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11.20.2008 1:58 pm

St Louis Cardinals and Trever Miller: Good Fit

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In running a bullpen, Cardinals manager Tony La Russa doesn’t hesitate to throw his lefty relievers into the fire.  They usually enter the game in the latter innings to find runners on base, runners in scoring position.

And over the last three seasons, those lefty relievers have often gotten torched.

Over the three-season period of 2006-2008, lefty reliever Randy Flores inherited  100 runners and allowed 44 of them to score. Yikes. It wasn’t much better in 2006-2007 for LH Tyler Johnson, who allowed 28 of 81 runners to score, or 34.6 percent.  Last season Ron Villone wasn’t too bad; only 10 of 45 inherited runners scored (22.2 percent). But Villone tended to walk batters more than he should have, which means he’d put more runners on for the next reliever.

LH reliever Trever Miller — if he signs with the Cardinals, as expected — should be able to spruce up this area in 2009.

He’s been one of the game’s best LH relievers in coming out of the bullpen to effectively limit the damage by pitching out of tight spots.

Courtesy of STATS LLC, here’s a look at the top LH relievers (both leagues) in preventing runners from scoring in 2008:

1. JP Howell 35 runners, 4 scored = 11.4 %

2. Trever Miller 37 runners, 6 scored = 16.2 %

3. Will Ohman 35 runners, 6 scored = 17.1 %

Other notable LH and their ranking and percentages

5. Arthur Rhodes = 17.8 %
14. Ron Villone  10 = 22.2 %
15. Charlie Manning  =  22.9 %  *
29.  Joe Beimel = 33.3 %
29. Jeremy Affeldt  = 33.3 %
29 Brian Shouse = 33.3  %

* The Cardinals signed Manning (formerly a Washington National) on Oct. 15.

Now, here are the top LH relievers in preventing runs from scoring over a 3-year period, 2006-2008:

1. Arthur Rhodes = 17.7 %

2. Trever Miller = 19.2 %

3. Will Ohman = 20.5 %

Other notables:

12. Beimel 25.4 %
20. Shouse 26.7 %
23. Villone 27.4  %
26. Affeldt 28.8  %

39. Tyler Johnson 34.6  %
46. (last) Randy Flores 44.0  %

So going by the numbers, it seems that Cardinals GM John Mozeliak has addressed a weakness by giving La Russa a lefty who can do a reliable job of dousing danger.

As we’d expect, Miller is tough on lefthanded hitters, who batted .209 against him last season - a figure that is even more impressive considering that Miller pitched in the tougher American League.

There are some things about Miller that raise concern: his walk rate has gone up, and last season 23 big-league LH relievers allowed fewer runners per nine innings than Miller’s 12.44.

Miller, 35, was also more vulnerable after the All-Star break in 2008, when the overall BA against him jumped.  is this a sign that he’s wearing down? Alarmists would probably think so, but they hit only .226 against him in August and .229 in September. He

And La Russa will not be using Miller correctly if he exposes him to too many RH batters. That would greatly diminish Miller’s effectiveness. He is clearly a situational lefty.  Miller struggled in Tampa Bay’s postseason, allowing 7 of 16 batters to reach. Does that mean anything? Or just the usual postseason randomness?

But if we go by what we saw during the regular season, Miller is certainly cool under pressure.  Last season, with runners on, all hitters batted only .173 against him. And with runners in scoring position, he allowed only 7 hits in 41 at-bats (.171) with six walks for an OBP of .271.

With runners and scoring position and two outs, Miller was nearly spotless. He retired all 18 hitters that he faced, and struck out seven of them.  That’s right: he allowed zero base runners with RISP and two out.

The 3-year BA against him with RISP is .182  (and .184 with two outs).

Last season Miller was very good at retiring the first batter he faced; they went 10 for 60 against him, with six walks.

Miller wasn’t the biggest name out there among the lefty relievers.

But the signing is agreeable and commendable for anyone who watched in horror over the last two-three seasons as Cardinal LHs checked into a game to squirt lighter fluid on a raging fire.

Also, here is a brief scouting report on Miller.

Against RH batters, he throws a lot of fastballs and mixes in a changeup.

Against LH batters, he keeps the changeup in his pocket and replaces it with a slider.

On the first pitch to LH batters last season, Miller threw the slider 55 percent of the time, and went fastball 44 percent.

But when he got behind in the count against LH, Miller went 80 percent fastballs and 20 percent changeups.

Data courtesy of STATS.

Thanks for reading…

-B

10 comments

Comments are closed.

said it in the forum and I’ll say it here….if they had acquired Trever Miller last July I’ll bet 95% of the haters would have LOVED the move.

Very good start, Mo…those of us that are rationale are on your side.

— dn3524
2:29 pm November 20th, 2008

“Very good start, Mo…those of us that are rationale are on your side.”

Yep, all seven of us!

— RedMeansGo
3:38 pm November 20th, 2008

Thank goodness I (hopefully) will never see Randy Flores come in from the bullpen in a Cardinal uniform again. He has been beyond bad. I would actually take Villone back if he’ll come back for cheap (1.5 million or less).

— stldrakelaw
3:41 pm November 20th, 2008

Strauss pointed out this morning when he called that Miller ranked fourth overall in inherited runners last season. And also you can see that Miller was the top-rated free agent in this category.

So, Bernie, sure seems like the Cardinals dialed up the same stats when generating their order of preference on this lefty market, eh?

dg
-30-

— Derrick Goold
3:43 pm November 20th, 2008

Bernie, you’re an idiot. All you do is go to a stat website and copy the information and redistribute it into a worthless article.

Can St. Louis get a real news writer - PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!
either that or just provide the link so we can look the stats up overselves - and save the paper the money they pay you.

— zwcked
3:47 pm November 20th, 2008

zwcked: What on earth are you talking about? Bernie is one of the best sports writers not only in St. Louis, but in the country! He is very knowledgable about baseball and does a terrific job of communicating the stats into understandable, broken-down info for the readers. I have read many out-of-town sports writers’ columns, and his insight and understanding of the game makes him a true pleasure to read for many sports fans in St. Louis. Furthermore, he tells it as it is, whether good or bad, and he doesn’t favor anyone, which makes him a professional.

Bernie: Once again, thanks for the great article. I certainly have a better knowledge of Trevor Miller and I agree that, if used properly, he could be a huge asset to the Cardinal relievers.

— JWS
4:10 pm November 20th, 2008

To my pals:

No problem — I like hearing from everyone, even the comically bitter wackjobs! It’s good for a laugh.

Thanks for the comments, and I hope the info on Miller helped tell us more about him.

-B

— Bernie Miklasz
4:19 pm November 20th, 2008

I am grateful for Bernies efforts to gather all the stats and put them into readable format. Is not that reporting?I’ll tell you something else about Bernie…he has a good heart. He is a thankful person, not a snob. He tells it the way he sees it as truth based upon the facts he gathers. He’s got more knowledge than most of his constituents around the country. Frankly I believe the PD is packed with classy sportswriters and we sports fans are blessed to to have them. zwcked, you are certainly entitled to your opinion, but it just does not serve you well to run down good people because when you run those kind of people down you run yourself down…thats MO.

— drelboc
4:37 pm November 20th, 2008

Ya dude… chill out on the Bernie Bashing

Miller is a sidearm/submarine kinda pitcher right? Deceptive release?

— Jordan
4:44 pm November 20th, 2008

Nevermind… just looked at the picture haha.

My memory is coming back to me and telling me that that Rays pitcher was right-handed. Bradford maybe.

— Jordan
4:47 pm November 20th, 2008