I enjoyed reading Bill Coats’ piece on the MVP chances of Arizona Cardinals QB Kurt Warner.

I realize Coats also listed other top contenders, but these discussions are fun so I thought I’d jump in on the topic.  (Thanks, Bill).

As a fan, I’d be delighted if Warner won his third league MVP award. It would be a profound achievement for the aging QB who has turned back his career clock in the Valley of the Sun.

Warner is a strong contender for obvious reasons: the Cardinals are about to clinch the NFC West title. The franchise hasn’t won a division since 1975. And Warner has been the triggerman of the revival. He’s third in the NFL in QB rating (99.4), is second in yards (3,741), tied for second in TDs (24), is tied for second in completion percentage (68.4) and is fifth in yards per attempt. Some attribute Warner’s success to his dazzling contingent of receivers, topped by Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. OK, if that’s the case, then why didn’t the Cardinals win and pile up the points when Matt Leinart was throwing to those wonderful wideouts? Besides, the Cardinals really struggle to run the ball and that doesn’t help Kurt, who is faced with a lot of difficult third-down situations. And he has a QB rating of 100.7 on third downs. Warner earned his numbers and his praise. I don’t care how good your receivers are; you’ve got to get the ball to them. And Warner’s accuracy enhances his receivers’ ability to make the reception in stride, and roll up plenty of yards after the catch.

That said, it would be premature to hand the award to Warner… there are many passing (and running) miles to go.

There are a  number of strong candidates:

Michael Turner, ATL running back: the 8-4 Falcons are a huge surprise, and Turner is the primary force in their sudden rise. The best free-agent signing of 2008, Turner is No. 3 in rushing, No. 1 in rushing TDs, tied for first for most first downs, is No. 1 in runs of 10 yards or more, and has the most carries. A heavy-duty workhorse who takes the heat off rookie QB Matt Ryan.

Drew Brees, New Orleans QB: He leads the league in passing yards (slightly ahead of Warner) and could break Dan Marino’s single-season record. (Ditto for Warner). Brees is also tied for second in TD passes. And he’s been awesome on third-down passing attempts, with a rating of 127.6. But Brees has also thrown 14 INTs, tied for most in the league.  The 6-6 Saints probably will be squeezed out of postseason contention, not that Brees is to blame for that. But he has been inconsistent; Brees has had a QB rating under 70 in five games this season.  Still in the hunt, especially if he shatters the record.

Brett Favre, NY Jets QB: He’s already won three MVPs. Is there a fourth on the way? Favre truly is a golden oldie. His completion percentage (68.7) is the best in the NFL. He’s led the Jets to a surprising 8-4 record, good for first place in the rough AFC East. But he’s been picked off 14 times, and his average yards per attempt is only 19th. He’s also been so-so on third down passing attempts. Favre is a superb leader. He’s made the Jets better … but that also could be said of DT Kris Jenkins, OL Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, LB Calvin Pace and the other key free-agent signings who have teamed to rejuvenate the Green. Favre will benefit from the usual NY hype, but Warner has had a better season.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota RB: The Vikes have a good chance of winning the NFC North, and Peterson leads the NFL in rushing. He’s an exciting big-play back who nets around 5 yards per carry and he can change the game in an instant.

Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee Titans DT: A supreme force for the 11-1 Titans. O-lines need a plow to block Haynesworth, who has 8.5 sacks. He also wrecks blocking schemes to allow the fast Tenn LBs to swoop in for easy tackles.  But voters don’t often look to the defense to find their winning MVP.

Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins RB: He’s really having an outstanding season, ranked No. 2 in rushing yards and averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He’s a much tougher runner inside than many believed. But on the list of RBs being considered, it’s hard to make a case for putting Portis ahead of Turner and Peterson… at least up to this point.

Eli Manning, NY Giants QB: I actually think he’s underrated.  What’s that? How can a Manning be underrated? Because he’s overshadowed in NY by Favre. He’s overshadowed in his family by big bro (some guy named Peyton; you may have seen one of his TV commercials).  And the physical Giants slug it out on the ground, which causes observes to overlook just how special Manning has been this season.  When the Giants need a big throw, he usually connects. Here’s what I’m talking about: Manning’s third-down passer rating is 99.7.  When he faces a third down with 8 or more yards to go, his rating is 104.3.  With the score tied, his QB rating is 112.2 And in the fourth quarter of games that have a spread of seven points or fewer, Eli’s QB rating is an astonishing 132.6. Eli is a money player. But oddly enough, he’ll lose support because he’s a Manning, and because he plays in NY. But Warner zealots shouldn’t downgrade Manning just because he benefits from his RBs and a superb O-line. That’s just as ridiculous as downgrading Kurt because he gets to dish to those spectacular receivers.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys QB: He missed four games with a broken finger and has been excellent in his nine games. But does missing the four games decrease his chances? Or was his MVP case strengthened by the Cowboys’ putrid play during his absence? Interesting.

Before closing, I wanted to mention a couple of other underrated QBs: Miami’s Chad Pennington and Tampa Bay’s Jeff Garcia. They aren’t serious contenders for the MVP, but they’ve been ideal as efficient, tough, game managers for successful teams.

Also, I didn’t mention DeMarcus Ware, the Dallas DE who leads the league in sacks…  Coats included him on his list and Bill is probably right to have him on there. But the QBs and RBs usually get the love in the balloting.

Bottom line?

I think it’s Warner’s award to lose … and he should be able to pad his resume against the Rams on Sunday in Arizona.

Thanks for reading…

-B