The New St. Louis Cardinals Shortstop, Khalil Greene
The late-night news: according to the Post-Dispatch, San Diego Union-Tribune and New York Post, the St. Louis Cardinals acquire SS Khalil Greene from San Diego, apparently for a couple of minor-league pitchers.
(Update: the NY Post was first to report the deal).
The Cardinals obviously hope that Greene (28) 29, will bring more offensive muscle to their middle infield.
Late-night views:
* Greene is coming off a hideous 2008 season in which he batted .213 with a .260 onbase percentage, a .339 slugging percentage and 10 homers. How bad was Greene in 2008? He had an OPS+ of 64, which was lower than the OPS+ posted by Cardinals shortstop Cesar Izturis (67).
* Greene had much better OPS+ figures in his other years: 114 OPS+ in 2004, 95 OPS+ in 2005, 97 OPS+ in 2006, 100 OPS+ in 2007.
* In 2007, Greene hit 27 homers and drove in 97 runs, with 44 doubles. The Cardinals undoubtedly had that production in mind when they made this deal.
* Between 2004-2007, Greene ranked 3rd among all MLB shortstops with 72 total homers; only Miguel Tejada and Jimmy Rollins had more. Over those four seasons Greene ranked 5th in total RBIs and 7th in slugging among MLB shortstops.
* The Cardinals are obviously banking on Greene’s ability to rebound and find his power stroke after a dismal 2008.
* The Cardinals are also hoping that a friendlier ballpark will help Greene. Though Busch Stadium actually gives a slight advantage to pitchers, it’s nothing like Petco Park in San Diego, which depresses offense.
* Greene’s career his slugging percentage on the road is .484 compared to .369 at Petco.
* From 2004-2007 his road slugging percentage of .511 was 2nd among MLB shortstops.
* Greene strikes out a bunch; from 2004-2008 only 45 MLB players had a higher K rate than Greene, who strikes out once every 5.12 plate appearance.
* Greene has a terrible career OBP of .304. His OBP has been under .300 in three of his five seasons. That’s just awful. True, his road OBP (.318) is a little better … but let’s not spin here; that’s awful. Plate discipline is a major issue. Greene fails to make contact on about 23 percent of his swings. In the past, scouts have told me that the HR-consumed Greene shoots for the fences too much. The Cardinals are going to have to refine Greene’s approach and calm him down.
* Injuries have been a problem for Greene. He has exceeded 500 at-bats only once in his career and has played in 121 games or fewer in three seasons. He’s been on the DL four times. There was a fractured finger, a broken toe, a torn finger ligament, and a broken hand.
* Manager Tony La Russa might want to consider Greene in the No. 6 hole. That’s been Greene’s best lineup spot during his career. In 636 ABs as a No. 6 hitter Greene has 31 homers, 110 RBIs and a .489 SLG.
* Defensively, Greene is a plus fielder overall. According to STATS, over the last five seasons Greene’s Zone Rating of .853 ranks 5th among MLB shortstops. Greene’s range decreased some in 2008. According to Hardball Times, he ranked 8th among NL shortstops in Revised Zone Rating (.835). By comparison, Izturis was ranked No. 2 in the NL among shortstops witha RZR of .869.
* According to Fielding Bible stats kept by John Dewan and Bill James, Greene struggles on ground balls hit to his left. In the plus-minus grading system, Greene has been -10, -10, and -14 (respectively) over the last three seasons. But he’s strong to his right, which means he’ll be making a lot of good plays in the hole between SS and 3B. Greene was a +13 on balls hit to his right in 2006, and +7 on balls hit to his right in 2007. He slumped in this area last season (minus 4). The decreased range in 2008 is a bit of a concern, but Greene had such an unhappy year in San Diego that there’s really no telling what was going on with him.
Was this a good move? Unless there’s something about this transaction that I don’t know about right now, this seems like a sound gamble to me. (As I write this in the pre-dawn hours I don’t know the identity of the pitchers that the Cardinals gave up for Greene, so keep that in mind as you read this. Thanks.)
* Update: minor-league reliever Mark Worrell will be sent to San Diego, along with another minor-leaguer to be named later. The Cardinals aren’t sending any coveted prospects to the Padres in this transaction. More than anything the Padres wanted to lower their payroll by shipping Greene to STL.
Coming to the Cardinals and the best baseball town in America should provide a boost for Greene, who battled with Padres management last season. We’ve seen many players come here and turn things around. Greene will also be in the walk year of his contract in 2009, so there’s some added motivational fuel.
That’s it for now…
I just wanted to give you a few snapshots of Greene’s career, and a general accounting of his strengths and weaknesses… hope this helps… now you have some additional material for your debates over the Greene trade.
Good night… good morning.
-B
The cards have reinforced their two strikeouts and a home run modus operandi. I don’t particularly disagree with this philosophy, I just think that one of our goals was a better on base percentage in the middle infield. This just illustrates my mixed feelings about this trade because I heartily approve of Greene. He was one of the best out there. The shortstop market among free agents was flawed by injury and attitude. Though Kahlil has exhibited attitude problems, playing in St. Louis should fix that. I think he’ll have a good contract year but he’ll still strike out a ton. Cards can offset this by finding a good second baseman with a high on base percentage and good defensive ability moving to his right. Kelly Johnson? Jose Lopez?