The New St. Louis Cardinals Shortstop, Khalil Greene
The late-night news: according to the Post-Dispatch, San Diego Union-Tribune and New York Post, the St. Louis Cardinals acquire SS Khalil Greene from San Diego, apparently for a couple of minor-league pitchers.
(Update: the NY Post was first to report the deal).
The Cardinals obviously hope that Greene (28) 29, will bring more offensive muscle to their middle infield.
Late-night views:
* Greene is coming off a hideous 2008 season in which he batted .213 with a .260 onbase percentage, a .339 slugging percentage and 10 homers. How bad was Greene in 2008? He had an OPS+ of 64, which was lower than the OPS+ posted by Cardinals shortstop Cesar Izturis (67).
* Greene had much better OPS+ figures in his other years: 114 OPS+ in 2004, 95 OPS+ in 2005, 97 OPS+ in 2006, 100 OPS+ in 2007.
* In 2007, Greene hit 27 homers and drove in 97 runs, with 44 doubles. The Cardinals undoubtedly had that production in mind when they made this deal.
* Between 2004-2007, Greene ranked 3rd among all MLB shortstops with 72 total homers; only Miguel Tejada and Jimmy Rollins had more. Over those four seasons Greene ranked 5th in total RBIs and 7th in slugging among MLB shortstops.
* The Cardinals are obviously banking on Greene’s ability to rebound and find his power stroke after a dismal 2008.
* The Cardinals are also hoping that a friendlier ballpark will help Greene. Though Busch Stadium actually gives a slight advantage to pitchers, it’s nothing like Petco Park in San Diego, which depresses offense.
* Greene’s career his slugging percentage on the road is .484 compared to .369 at Petco.
* From 2004-2007 his road slugging percentage of .511 was 2nd among MLB shortstops.
* Greene strikes out a bunch; from 2004-2008 only 45 MLB players had a higher K rate than Greene, who strikes out once every 5.12 plate appearance.
* Greene has a terrible career OBP of .304. His OBP has been under .300 in three of his five seasons. That’s just awful. True, his road OBP (.318) is a little better … but let’s not spin here; that’s awful. Plate discipline is a major issue. Greene fails to make contact on about 23 percent of his swings. In the past, scouts have told me that the HR-consumed Greene shoots for the fences too much. The Cardinals are going to have to refine Greene’s approach and calm him down.
* Injuries have been a problem for Greene. He has exceeded 500 at-bats only once in his career and has played in 121 games or fewer in three seasons. He’s been on the DL four times. There was a fractured finger, a broken toe, a torn finger ligament, and a broken hand.
* Manager Tony La Russa might want to consider Greene in the No. 6 hole. That’s been Greene’s best lineup spot during his career. In 636 ABs as a No. 6 hitter Greene has 31 homers, 110 RBIs and a .489 SLG.
* Defensively, Greene is a plus fielder overall. According to STATS, over the last five seasons Greene’s Zone Rating of .853 ranks 5th among MLB shortstops. Greene’s range decreased some in 2008. According to Hardball Times, he ranked 8th among NL shortstops in Revised Zone Rating (.835). By comparison, Izturis was ranked No. 2 in the NL among shortstops witha RZR of .869.
* According to Fielding Bible stats kept by John Dewan and Bill James, Greene struggles on ground balls hit to his left. In the plus-minus grading system, Greene has been -10, -10, and -14 (respectively) over the last three seasons. But he’s strong to his right, which means he’ll be making a lot of good plays in the hole between SS and 3B. Greene was a +13 on balls hit to his right in 2006, and +7 on balls hit to his right in 2007. He slumped in this area last season (minus 4). The decreased range in 2008 is a bit of a concern, but Greene had such an unhappy year in San Diego that there’s really no telling what was going on with him.
Was this a good move? Unless there’s something about this transaction that I don’t know about right now, this seems like a sound gamble to me. (As I write this in the pre-dawn hours I don’t know the identity of the pitchers that the Cardinals gave up for Greene, so keep that in mind as you read this. Thanks.)
* Update: minor-league reliever Mark Worrell will be sent to San Diego, along with another minor-leaguer to be named later. The Cardinals aren’t sending any coveted prospects to the Padres in this transaction. More than anything the Padres wanted to lower their payroll by shipping Greene to STL.
Coming to the Cardinals and the best baseball town in America should provide a boost for Greene, who battled with Padres management last season. We’ve seen many players come here and turn things around. Greene will also be in the walk year of his contract in 2009, so there’s some added motivational fuel.
That’s it for now…
I just wanted to give you a few snapshots of Greene’s career, and a general accounting of his strengths and weaknesses… hope this helps… now you have some additional material for your debates over the Greene trade.
Good night… good morning.
-B
The cards have reinforced their two strikeouts and a home run modus operandi. I don’t particularly disagree with this philosophy, I just think that one of our goals was a better on base percentage in the middle infield. This just illustrates my mixed feelings about this trade because I heartily approve of Greene. He was one of the best out there. The shortstop market among free agents was flawed by injury and attitude. Though Kahlil has exhibited attitude problems, playing in St. Louis should fix that. I think he’ll have a good contract year but he’ll still strike out a ton. Cards can offset this by finding a good second baseman with a high on base percentage and good defensive ability moving to his right. Kelly Johnson? Jose Lopez?
ho hum…at least they’re not sitting on their hands and doing nothing. I still think this was the spot that needed the least attention this year. As long as this isn’t the “big” move of the offseason. Greene is a rehab project with a big name is all.
THANK YOU BERNIE! I agree. I like the trade. He is moving into his prime years so he should be inspired with motivation coming to St. Louis in the last year of his contract. Trading for ball players is always a gamble really. Kudos to Mo for getting this done before the winter meetings. I’ve thought highly of Mo since observing his work of last winter. I think the Cards have a plan and are following it close two the script for however the river tends to unwind. I don’t think the currents were in their favor to travel last July and that is why they did not make that summer trip to trade for help. It should be an interesting week next week to see what else Mo can get done. Thanks again for burning the early morning oil to provide us fans with the details Bernie! Much appreciated!
Bernie- good morning .I’d say gamble was the key word in your piece. As in “big gamble”!!
6.5 million in a contract year? The Cardinals don’t like to pay over 2 million!
Isn’t that why we dumped Edgar and traded Mark G to K.C.?
You mean, the Cards have decided to pay real money to a SS?
Let’s assume he has a real good year next year. Do you really think the Cards will pay him 6.5 to 8 mil a year for 3 to 4 years?
So with that being said, why would we “rent” a SS for one year, coming off a terrible year, AND give up pitching to do it?
What’s the point?
Not only do we not know the players the Cards are sending out, we also don’t know if the Pads are picking up some of his salary. My guess is that they are paying 3 mil of that 6.5 mil. Regardless, as Bernie said, we shouldn’t judge the trade fully until all the details are known. I like it right now though, the move from Petco will help him.
I’m not sure what to think about this. I’m puzzled that they picked him up with one year on his contract. If we had a good SS coming up in the minors ready to take his place next year I’d understand. I’m also shocked we got someone with with a worse batting average than Izturis. That’s what I couldn’t stand about Isturis last year. I couldn’t figure out why we kept playing him. I like Greene’s power, but if he can’t do much else with the bat, it’s a bad move. I hoped we’d work hard to get Furcal. I guess it’s too late now, but I’m willing to wait and see. Greene has much more potential than Izturis.
Greene would not have been my first choice, but he is a good choice. Personally, I preferred Furcal, but he was probably out of the money the Cards were willing to pay for a SS.
The biggest challenge now is to find a very good second baseman to compliment Greene, both on and off the field. Johnson and Lopez are possibilities, but I personally like Orlando Hudson over those two. He is experienced, hits for average, commits fewer than 10 errors a season (1 error every 12.92 games), and is a true 2nd baseman, unlike Kelly Johnson (3 yrs exp) who was a OF converted to 2B (28 errors @ 2B over past 2 seasons). Jose Lopez is also a very good hitter and fielder (1 error every 11.57 games) but only 5 yrs MLB exp. My thought is, if you want youth, Lopez; experience, Hudson.
Miller is signed, but do we really need a 39 yr old reliever? Yes, Rhodes is a lefty and is tough on RH batters, but I question this offer because of the age issue, and no batting experience at the MLB level.
Please feel free to chime in on my thoughts.
Greene would not have been my first choice, but he is a good choice. Personally, I preferred Furcal, but he was probably out of the money the Cards were willing to pay for a SS.
The biggest challenge now is to find a very good second baseman to compliment Greene, both on and off the field. Johnson and Lopez are possibilities, but I personally like Orlando Hudson over those two. He is experienced, hits for average, commits fewer than 10 errors a season (1 error every 12.92 games), and is a true 2nd baseman, unlike Kelly Johnson (3 yrs exp) who was a OF converted to 2B (28 errors @ 2B over past 2 seasons). Jose Lopez is also a very good hitter and fielder (1 error every 11.57 games) but only 5 yrs MLB exp. My thought is, if you want youth, Lopez; experience, Hudson.
Miller is signed, but do we really need a 39 yr old reliever? Yes, Rhodes is a lefty and is tough on RH batters, but I question this offer because of the age issue, and no batting experience at the MLB level.
Please feel free to chime in on my thoughts.
sorry for the double post
I was hoping to see Greene in a Cardinals uniform a few years ago….but I’m hopeful that he will return to his old form. Maybe coming to a winning tradition in STL will give him a better perspective and the change of scenery will help his mental game, ie NO MORE PUNCHING STATIONARY ITEMS!!!!