May 26: Cardinals’ Hitting Slump is Historic
Since the first offering on our list is a little long, with lots of stats, I’ll go with only three items today. As always, thanks for reading:
1. THE MISSING OFFENSE: Watching Monday’s loss at Milwaukee, you got the feeling that the Cardinals could have played another 10 innings without scoring a run. The offense is absolutely futile right now.
For the month of May, the Cardinals as a team are batting .218 with a .282 onbase percentage and a .369 slugging percentage. They’re averaging 3.3 runs per game.
In their 12 May losses, the Cardinals are batting .189 / .258 / .298 and averaging 2.3 runs.
But let’s stick with the overall May totals for now.
With only five games remaining in May, the Cardinals’ hitting performance this month ranks among the worst in franchise history.
* That batting average of .218? It’s the lowest since April, 1986 when the Cardinals batted .206. The 1973 Cardinals hit .216 in April. The 1978 Cardinals hit .218 in June. The 1988 team hit .219 in July.
This will likely be the lowest monthy batting average for the Cardinals since Tony La Russa became manager in 1996. The previous low was .229 in April 2007.
* That onbase of .282? It’s threatening the lowest monthly mark of .280, shared by the 1986 Cardinals (April) and the 1966 Cardinals (September). The ‘78 team also had a .282 OBP in May of that season. The 1968 Cardinals had an OBP of .284 in August.
This is also the puniest OBP in a month from a La Russa-managed STL team; the previous low was .303 in April of ‘97.
* The .369 slugging percentage for May wouldn’t come close to establishing a new franchise low for a month, or for a La Russa-led Cardinals team. The Cardinals have slugged under .369 for a month many times, too many to mention. But in case you are wondering, the lowest slugging % by a La Russa-led Cardinals team, .348, took place in April 1997.
* The average runs per game of 3.3 isn’t close to setting a new franchise mark for lowest per-game scoring average in a month, but it is the lowest since April of 1992 (3.23). The ‘66 Cardinals and the ‘68 Cardinals averaged 3.23 runs in July of their respective seasons.
But the Cardinals have a shot to be the lowest-scoring lineup of any STL La Russa team in a month; the 2007 Cardinals averaged 3.42 runs in April 2007.
When you add it all up, the bottom line is, we’re probably seeing the worst single month by a TLR offense in St. Louis.
2. WANTED, CLEANUP HITTER: With Ryan Ludwick being out since May 12, the Cardinals have received scant production from the No. 4 spot in their lineup. At least Ludwick was a legit threat behind No. 3 hitter Albert Pujols. In 82 at-bats as a cleanup hitter, Ludwick hit 6 homers, drove in 22 runs and slugged .561.
Chris Duncan has taken most of the ABs at the No. 4 hole since Ludwick went out, and he’s struggled mightily. Overall as a No. 4 hitter this season (it does include a few April ABs), Duncan is 12 for 63 (.190). Yadier Molina is 1 for 12 as a cleanup man this month.
The hole in the lineup has had a clear impact on Pujols.
In April, he batted .356 with a .468 OBP and .724 SLG.
In May, Pujols is batting .277 with a .429 OBP and a .554 SLG.
Pujols walked 18 times in 109 April plate appearances; he already has walked 17 times in 84 PA in May.
According to Fangraphs.com, Pujols swung at pitches out of the strike zone 22 percent of the time in April, and that figure jumped to 27 percent in May. Moreover, his contact rate on chasing pitches out of the strike zone has dropped 11 percentage points from April (83 %) to May (72% ).
Ludwick is due to come off the disabled list Friday. He’s been missed.
One more thing on Duncan: I checked the data and in May, pitchers have thrown Duncan fewer fastballs and more changeups. He hasn’t adjusted. Once Duncan gets back to the No. 5 slot and settles down, he should start hitting again.
Duncan has been at his best as a No. 5 hitter this season: .308 / .367 /.481
3. THE CARDINALS SENT THEIR BEST DEFENSIVE SS TO MEMPHIS: Tyler Greene looked very good at shortstop during his May trial run. We’re talking small sample sizes here, so feel free to disregard, but the rookie flashed the most range of any shortstop on the roster. According to the Zone Ratings at STATS, T. Greene got outs on 24 of 28 balls hit into his zone, for a ZR of .857. That’s the best of any SS on the STL roster. By comparison, Khalil Greene got to 71 of 94 balls for a ZR of .755. According to the plus-minus fielding stats done by Bill James and John DeWan, Tyler Greene saved the Cardinals two runs at SS. And Khalil Greene cost the Cardinals two runs.
Greene also hit .273 and slugged .545 in 33 May ABs. Yes, a small sample size. But those numbers still look good when stacked against the anemic averages posted up and down the St. Louis lineup this month. I know the Cardinals want him to play every day, get plenty of ABs and work on cutting down that long swing (which will be a big-league liability). And the best place to do that right now is probably Memphis. But still… he was impressive this month.
But I understand what’s taking place here. The Cardinals have $6.5 million invested in Khalil Greene and want to try to get him going.
-Bernie
All excellent points, this past three weeks has been the most painful offensive display to watch that I can remember in recent history. As you pointed out, yesterday may have been the worst, I saw no chance of scoring no matter how many innings we played, it was just a matter of when and how the Brewers were going to win 1-0. Ludwick coming back will help, but I think something needs to be done to give us another decent right handed bat in this lineup. Ankiel, Duncan, Rasmus and Thurston are 4 automatic outs against lefties. If Glaus is really done for the year, which is my bet, MO needs to make a move now while we’re still in the race, another month goes by scoring like we are, no matter how good the pitching, we’ll be 7 or 8 back and it won’t matter. If Albert has to keep putting up with the current state of affairs, any thought of him being a Cardinal for life is going to go out the window.
This piece by Bernie only confirms what we already knew, the offense has been really bad in the month of May, one of the worst months in recent memory. I’m not convinced that Ludwick and Ankiel are the saviors here when they both get back. I don’t believe either was going very good when they got hurt earlier in the month. Their season stats to date are not eye popping by any stretch. I noticed in Bernie’s analysis that the ‘68′
team was included a couple of times for a low OBP (.284 in August) and a low average runs per game (3.23 in July). On the plus side here, that ‘68′ team went on to the World Series. Granted, they had Gibson pitching every 4th day and that was his great 1.12 ERA year, but hopefully this team’s pitching will continue to be strong and keep us competive in hopes that the hitting will come around. It’s beginning to look more and more like the fans may have been right, we need another ESTABLISHED STAR player hitting behind Albert. When your cleanup hitters go through extended periods of hitting under .200, why would you pitch to Albert?
if Rasmus is/was the Cardinal “Superstar in the Minors”, the organization is in deep do-do! Along with “Kid” Colby, i’d be shopping “never saw an opportunity or season to be injured Ankiel” and “the sun was blinding in left-field and at the plate, Duncan”. The Red-n-the-Eyes Cardinal Nation Fans are also blinded by the sun and local media types who hype this trio of outfielders. like a “fine wine” let’s let Brett Wallace “age” another season or two hitting .387 in the minors to help the Memphis Birds win a meaningless title while we watch multi-million dollar incompetents like Khalil Greene, Todd “Will-he-maker through the first”, and a host of Brad Thompson’s, Blaine Boyer, Dennys Reyes, and Trevor Millers masquerade as major league ball players,NOT!! but Bernie has his “Duncan fan Wave” going again and his push for Hall of Fame status, viz., “Once Duncan gets back to the No5 slot and settles down, he should start hitting again”. “Mick”, i never knew Duncan “started hitting” so it will be a whole new exciting experience for Cardinal fans…Pujols amazes me with even without much more than a solid catcher and 3 starting pitchers he continues to produce amidst the group of mediocrity…And give credit for Tony keeping this group of minor leaguers in contention while he waits for DeWitt to find his wallet and Mozeliak to be replaced…
Once again right on the money Bernie! What this team needs is a right handed bat (preferably a 3B, DeRosa anyone?) with some pop along with a healthy Ludwick. “The Mang” can’t keep trying to carry the load all by himself and as was witnessed over the weekend teams are just not going to let him swing a bat. C’mon Dewallett, open it up and get this team some help pronto!!!
This guy actually wants to give up on Colby Rasmus after 2 months in the big leagues. Talk about short sighted, and, quite frankly, ridiculous analysis. Were you expecting Pujols 2001? Check the numbers for ARod his first September in the majors. Check Griffey. Check Bonds first year. MOST rookies take time to adjust. Seriously, get a clue. I see nothing from Colby that shows he won’t be an excellent player.
if J.D. Drew was dispensable, Rasmus is, too…Rasmus has never hit for average in the minors…can you say “BUST”? imo, there are too many unrealistic Card fans wearing “Rosy Red Colored Glasses”!!! on-the-other-hand (the right), Wallace could very well be the big bat needed in the line-up…he’s hit at every level…bring’em up!!
Great piece Bernie,except for the mental slip you had when you said ” Duncan should start hitting when he gets back to the 5 hole in the lineup.”
If TLR has Duncan starting in the outfield when Ludwick and Ankiel return instead of Rasmus he needs to be run out of town on a rail!! Duncan may end the year with the same 3 HR’s he hit back in April. It makes me ill to watch him bat,automatic out!!!
Also, i agree with other posters i’ve seen on here that say Duncan playing everyday and NOT producing is bringing the team down. If you watch closely you never see Pujols slapping Duncan’s hand after scoring a run. And the look on Pujol’s face after being left on base EVERYTIME by Duncan is the look of disgust. Can you blame him? With Duncan batting behind him there is no reason to pitch to Pujols EVER again!
i agree with you cornhead, you comment about Wallace. I say bring him up also, what is there to lose?
The only thing less amusing than the 2009 Cardinals is the idiotic banter among “educated” fans.
Where are the realists? I said from day one I thought a 4th place finish was in order. I got bashed and hated on for “not being a Cardinal”. BTW, Cardinal Nation is in my blood. My grandmother used to follow the Cardinals even to Spring Training when she was young…we’re talking over 60 years of Cardinal’s history in my family. But I’m not a fan because I call out Mozo for his lip service and his idiotic banter between the media and fan base…
It’s ridiculous. I don’t lose any sleep over it because when you consider the source, most people are idiots.
I do, however, get uneasy when I watch this 2009 Cardinals product take the field. I barked about 6 rookies in a lineup and was chastised as being off base. Yet, here we are discussing the worst offensive month in TLR Cardinal history. Go figure. You mean, you don’t go to the post season with AP, Molina and a pitcher surrounded by rookies at every other position? Huh, who wouldve thunk.
Rasmus is NOT the second coming folks. He’s a good defender, has good speed, shows some promise on the base paths but hasn’t shown a big league stroke yet. Nobody expects him to hit .330 but it would be nice (see troy t in Colorado…although his followup is less than impressive)…but take walks over K’s, get on base, protect the plate…he’s kind of lost at the plate….and he’s struggled at every level with his bat. Has he hit over .250 ANYWHERE?
The MLB outfields are packed with .250 hitters and most of them stroke for power. Why CR is soooo untouchable to get some pitching help only shows that John Mozo didn’t get his big league education satisfied working in the laundry at Colorado.