May 29: Scouting a 3B for the St. Louis Cardinals
Greetings…
We talked about this on my WXOS 101.1 FM radio show Thursday and it’s worth some follow-up discussion.
The Cardinals need a third baseman, and GM John Mozeliak apparently plans to pursue one. Three prime names have surfaced, so far: Cleveland’s Mark DeRosa, Colorado’s Garrett Atkins and Seattle’s Adrian Beltre. All three are free agents after the season. DeRosa makes $5 million, Atkins makes $7 million and Beltre is being paid $12 million this season. We’ll also throw in Baltimore’s Melvin Mora, who makes $9 million this year in the final season of his contract.
All are RH bats, which the Cardinals covet.
Let’s take a closer look …
- DeRosa: He’s more affordable for payroll puproses than Atkins, Beltre or Mora. DeRosa isn’t the smoothest at 3B, but can hold his own. He can also play 2B, SS, 1B, LF, RF. That versatility is ideal for manager Tony La Russa’s lineup concoctions. The Cardinals are poor against LH pitchers and DeRosa could help remedy that. In his career, he’s a .303 hitter against LH, with a .373 OBP and a .481 slugging percentage. Great guy in the clubhouse. Loved playing in the National League. Is Mitchell Boggs enough to land DeRosa? The Cubs, Mets and Brewers are said to be interested in acquiring DeRosa.
- Atkins: There seems to be a bit of a groundswell forming for Atkins among Cardinals fans, but let the buyer beware. Atkins had a career year in 2006 — 29 homers, 120 RBIs, .329 BA — but his offensive numbers have been in steady decline since then. Atkins is batting only .195 this season, with a .273 OBP and an anemic .292 SLG. He’s also near the bottom of the NL in zone rating among 3B. And here’s another big concern about Atkins: He has glaring home/road splits. He hits with greater authority at Coors Field and isn’t nearly as effective away from Coors. That bothers me.
Here are Atkins’ career splits:
Home: .331 BA, .388 OBP, .519 SLG
Away: .255 BA, .324 OBP, .410 SLG
To put Atkins’ road splits in perspective, consider these two batting lines:
.246 BA, .353 OBP, .404 SLG.
.247 BA, .309 OBP, .424 SLG.
Both sets of numbers are similar to what we’ve seen from Atkins away from Coors Field, no?
Well, the first hitting line belongs to Joe Thurston.
The second belongs to Brian Barden.
Perhaps Atkins would be jump-started by a transfer to St. Louis and the opportunity to compete in a winning environment. Then again, didn’t many of us say the same thing about Khalil Greene? I have no idea what the Rockies would want in return, but they’re 14 games out of first place and probably are looking to dump salary. And the word on the street is that the Rox may be willing to eat a big chunk of Atkins’ $7 million salary. Bill DeWitt holding on line two…
-Beltre: I have to be up front about this. At first I thought - no way. But I warmed up to the idea after digging into the numbers. First of all, the $12 million. That’s a lot of jack, and I can’t imagine that DeWitt would approve of adding so much salary to the payroll. So I’m assuming that the Mariners would have to absorb a lot of that salary to make this deal possible. Are the M’s willing to do that? Dunno. They’re 6 games out in the AL West. I don’t think they’re a playoff team, so maybe the M’s will want to save some money. Beltre is a very good defender. Since signing with the Mariners in 2005, he’s been the second-best 3B (according to Zone Rating compiled by STATS LLC) in the American League.
Beltre’s biggest season was with the Dodgers in his walk-year of 2004, when he hit 48 homers, knocked in 121 runs and batted .334. But here’s the deal: since joining the Mariners, Beltre ranks 6th among MLB third baseman in homers, and he’s 5th in RBIs. He’s 16th in slugging. That may not seem overly impressive to you, but we must consider an important factor in these numbers:
Beltre is the opposite of Atkins in that his offense has been suppressed by playing home games at Safeco Field. He’s a much better hitter away from Seattle. Let’s take a look:
Home: .247 BA, .302 OBP, .405 SLG
Away: .277 BA, .325 OBP, .481 SLG
In Atkins, you get a hitter with mediocre numbers away from Coors Field. In Beltre, you get a hitter who packs a lot more punch when he gets away from his spacious home yard in Seattle. Beltre is also great pals with the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols. Beltre has started slowly this season, but that’s normal for him; during his career he really heats up as the season rolls along. In terms of talent, Beltre is the guy. But the salary implications figure to be a considerable obstacle.
-Mora: He drove in 104 runs for a bad team last season, and is a solid pro, good in the clubhouse. He’s playing decently at 3B. But Mora is 37, his power has dropped this season, and he has a no-trade clause. Mora, his wife and their large family have also made Baltimore their year-round home. Even if the Cardinals wanted him, and could get him, would Mora be willing to relocate? Would he insist on a contract extension to do so? A few things here seem to make this a reach for the Cardinals.
OK, now let’s move on and hit a few links.
* Take a look at this, Tony La Russa: The Cincinnati Reds open a three-game weekend series in Milwaukee, then head to Busch Stadium to play four against the Cardinals. And by the end of the trip, Reds outfielder Jay Bruce predicts his team will be in first place. My pal Hal McCoy, the Hall of Fame baseball writer, explains in his piece for the Dayton Daily News.
* Meanwhile, in Houston, the situation is getting worse for Astros manager Cecil Cooper, as we can see from this commentary by Houston Chronicle columnist Richard Justice.
* The Cardinals are a different team with Chris Carpenter in the rotation; Gerry Fraley breaks it down on FoxSports.com
* Things are boiling at Wrigley Field; the Cubs lose 2-1 to the Dodgers on Thursday night, and manager Lou Piniella declines to speak to the media .
* Could outfielder Matt Holliday be on the move again? Sure seems like a possibility, as relayed by Oakland A’s beatwriter Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle .
* For something non-sports, you can vote on this fun poll that was put together over at St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay’s web site. Hizzoner tries to cast St. Louisans in Reality TV roles.
* Writing on ESPN.com, Orel Hershiser discusses the pitchers’ allergic reaction to Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols …
Finally: Asbury Park, St. Louis’s own Bruce Springsteen party band, returns to the stage at Off Broadway on Friday night (May 29) from 9 p.m. to 1 a.m. $5 cover. Come on out. The band does a great job and never disappoints.
Thanks for reading …
- Bernie
Atkins? No way, no thank you. Mora? At 37, in a walk year, with a no-trade clause, I’ll pass. Beltre? Interesting, although OBP and salary are obstacles. DeRosa looks like a really good fit, considering versatility and salary. Solid numbers, also. I hate the thought of giving up Boggs for DeRosa. If he can harness his ability, he looks like a fit in the rotation next year, considering Pineiro is a free agent after 2009.
I’m shocked the focus is on 3b. I understand that we have no idea when Glaus will be back nor what we’ll get out of him when he gets here, but at least he’s a glimmer of hope. Meanwhile, we have jack-crap at SS. I called the K. Greene signing an abortion of an idea on here at the time, and it has proven to be nothing but correct. I still don’t understand how this GM has a job when he considers bringing in a slow-footed, Mendoza line-flirting SS with NO range at all. What a moron.
I can see Glaus giving us at least what Atkins or Beltre would without giving up anybody. Then we use whomever we can as bait to find a solid SS who can at least play defense. If he has a bat too, great.
Thanks for the great comparisons here Bernie. I would agree with the previous blog that DeRosa is the best fit in Tony’s system and for DeWitt’s pocketbook. Not sure what Cleveland would need to make this happen, but I would hate to see it be Boggs. He appears to be the best the farm has to offer, based on his minimal big league exposure, so I think he needs to be available to us in case one of our starters goes down again. I would think that Motte or Perez would be more likely options as we don’t need 3 potential closers in the pen. The only downside there is if you want to give up one of those guys for just a one year deal since DeRosa is a free agent after this year.
Someone I think that is overlooked is Aubrey Huff. He plays 3B at some point about every year. His defense probably wouldn’t be any worse than what we’ve been getting. He really doesn’t fit in as a righthander hitter but this guy can mash. When healthy your going to get 25-30 Hr and close 90 or so RBI. I don’t know his salary but I can’t imagine he makes too expensive. Out of the options Bernie gave us, I would love Beltre but would settle for Derosa.
Fsuga… Glaus is done. That’s exactly the reason these discussions are taking place. Clearly we wouldn’t be talking about trading for a 3B if Glaus was going to be returning anytime soon. In terms of making trades, there are better opportunities available in trading for a 3B than SS - who is going to trade away an impact SS? Houston? Not without a bounty in return within the division. Therefore, the bigger bang for the buck in trade is 3B. I’d like to see more of Tyler Greene at SS before this year is done anyway.
who started this nonsensical idea for a need for a 3rd baseman? Stubbyclapp, probably and Bernie!! what is needed is a righthanded slugger and guess with 5 outfieleders we look at the infield and declare that the “hot corner” be the position? if it is a righthanded slugger, save the money and bring up Brett Wallace! save the money for a real left side hitter other than the inconsistent Duncan, Ankiel, and Rasmus or better yet, a good starter other than “Will=he=maker through the first”, Boggs, Walters, Thompson and others that have been showcased with zero results…
none of the available 3rd basemen are worth the money required to obtain them. we’d been better off to keep aaron miles for far less…that Mozo the Bozo sure knows what he is doing!! NOT!! Without LaRussa this team would be drowning in last place!!
Agreeing with many that DeRosa looks like a good fit. Would hate to see Boggs be traded and turn into a D. Haren type talent, but if it’s about winning this year, sometimes you take your chances. Would rather package Wellemeyer with something like Boyer and Kinney. Welly won 13 last year, and is somehow on pace for more wins this year. The other 2 have had past success at the show, and could very well be successful again. Bet the Cubs would love to get DeRosa back for 2nd base, where Miles and Fontenot are flopping, and for protection for A. Ramirez injuries.
What about Allen Craig or Brett Wallace?They gave Wallace 3 weeks of double a then sent him to triple a.Give them a shot and save money for starting pitching(Jake Peavy?) you know he really wants cardinal nation.
I don’t know about DeRosa or Atkins but as a Cards Fans living in the Pacific Northwest, I know allot about Beltre. Here’s what you get; a great glove. End of story. He was signed by Seattle to be an offensive force after his monster year as a Dodger, (wonder what was in his Wheaties that season?) and he has been a major disappointment to the M’s as a signature FA acquisition. He was signed to be a star for star money and has not produced. He’s an expensive bust.
He starts slow every season. This year he has been a bust at the plate has only gotten hot in the last ten days to raise his average up to .212 and has finally hit his first home run of the season just a few days ago. He is absolutely, positively, unwilling and unable to lay off lunging at the low, off the plate, out of the strike zone down and away pitch. It’s not Safeco, it’s Beltre.
So, for 12 million dollars a year, you would only get a good glove at third base. Don’t do it Cardinals. You can find a great glove-no hit third baseman for a heck of lot less than that. Don’t waste your money unless the M’s paid about 10 million of that contract.
Change of subject but it ties into “Things are boiling at Wrigley Field.”
I noticed that Zambrano received a six game suspension for his meltdown. In my book he is a repeat offender. I realize that Selig is gutless (especially when dealing with Chicago) but shouldn’t MLB (Bob Watson) push for longer suspensions in cases like this?