Greetings…

If the Cardinals are to have a realistic chance to reach the offseason postseason, they’re going to need a lot more punch from outfielders Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick.

Last season the two bombers combined for 62 homers and 184 RBIs.

This year so far they’ve combined for 13 homers and 59 RBIs.

Since returning from their respective injuries, Ankiel and Ludwick are a combined 26 for 127, or .205.

Let’s take a closer look:

ANKIEL: Since returning from the DL on May 24, Ankiel is 17 for 70 (.243) with 20 strikeouts, two homers and six RBIs. He’s batting .245 / .307 / .417 this season, which means he’s having a 19-point drop in batting average, a 30-point drop in onbase percentage and an 89-point drop in slugging percentage from last season. Ankiel’s production is down across the board against RHP. Last year he had some good stretches against LH pitching, but is batting only .205 with 16 Ks in 44 ABs against them this season. Overall, Ankiel has one of the highest swing-and-miss rates among major-league hitters.

Where is Ankiel vulnerable? I looked at his pitch-type/location breakdown at STATS and immediately spotted the problem: RH pitchers have been able to get inside on Ankiel this season, and he isn’t making them pay for it. His batting average against inside fastballs from RHP is .133, and his batting average against inside sliders from RHP is .167, and he’s been unable to fend off their curveballs spotted low or inside. With LHP, it’s all about the fastball. Ankiel hasn’t hit them. He doesn’t have a hit this season on first-pitch fastballs thrown by LH, and they don’t hesitate to throw him the fastball when he’s behind in the count and probably looking for it. Ankiel is batting .176 on the 60 fastballs thrown to him by LH when they’re ahead of him on the count. Overall, the LH are getting Ankiel to go up; he’s batting .083 on high fastballs from them this season.

So far, this is not the free-agent run-up year that Ankiel or agent Scott Boras wanted. 

LUDWICK: His falloff is even more alarming. Since returning from the DL on May 29, Ludwick has only 9 hits in 57 ABs for a .158 BA, .246 OBP and .211 SLG.

Sure, being sidelined with a strained hamstring was a setback for Ludwick, but don’t forget that he was slumping even before he suffered the injury on May 12.

From April 26 through May 12, Ludwick batted only .170 in 47 ABs. Some fans blame Ludwick’s decline on manager Tony La Russa, who doesn’t play Ludwick every single day. But that’s pretty bogus considering that from the start of the season until the injury, only Albert Pujols had more at-bats than Ludwick among Cardinals hitters. And during Ludwick’s .170 slump that preceded his injury, he was tied for first in games played between April 26 and May 12.

Another major difference between Ludwick of 2008 and ‘09 is his performance against RH pitchers. In a recent blog we were able to pinpoint the reason: Ludwick isn’t hitting fastballs from RH pitchers this season. Last year he tore up fastballs; this year he’s been overmatched so far.

In 115 ABs against RH this season, Ludwick is batting .217 with a .283 OBP and a .461 SLG.

Last season Ludwick ravaged RH pitching for a .316 BA, .386 OBP and .587 SLG.

Ludwick had a huge 2008, slamming 37 homers and knocking in 113 RBIs, but greatness is sustained over time. One season does not install a player as a long-term star. During the offseason I looked at Ludwick’s ‘08 season and wondered what we could expect from him in 2009. I tried to find comparables and saw that there were examples on both ends of the spectrum among guys (like Ludwick) who got a late start in the majors. Some, like Jim Lemon, were able to string together several outstanding seasons. Others, such as Bubba Trammell, were essentially one-hit wonders. It is too early to put Ludwick in either category but he needs to get going.

Last season the Cardinals outfield ranked No. 2 in the majors in OPS.

This season they rank No. 20 in the majors in OPS.

We’ve all agonized over the lack of offensive production from the left side of the Cardinals infield this season, but if the outfielders don’t start to crank out big numbers, as they did a year ago, then the lineup will be a minus.

BERNIE BYTES:

Good to see Yadier Molina rolling again offensively; he’s 16 for his last 42 (.381) with only one strikeout … if manager La Russa was willing to give Albert Pujols two ABs on Thursday against the Tigers, then he should have started him; this hardly amounted to a day off for Mang … as the KC Royals began a three-game series in St. Louis late last month they were 21-20 and things were looking up; since then they’ve gone 8-16 and the offense is in the tank. Since May 22, the Royals are batting .246 with a hideous .287 OBP and .374 SLG. They’re averaging 3.5 runs a game over the last 24; that’s suicide in the AL… and the KC bullpen has 7.02 ERA (ouch) over the last 24  games… the Royals don’t catch the ball very well; they’re No. 26 in the majors in fielding percentage. La Russa should push it on the basepaths this weekend, because the Royals’ catchers have nailed only 11 of 53 runners who have attmpted to steal bases; that’s the second-worst rate in the bigs …

Rowdy and rude comedian Artie Lange did exactly what HBO wanted him to do: stir it up, create a buzz and get ratings for the debut of “Joe Buck Live.” Mission accomplished. So enough already with the caterwauling… good decision by the Blues to bring Keith Tkachuk back for another season… Blues coach Andy Murray was robbed in Las Vegas; a group of NHL broadcasters snatched the Coach of the Year award from him. When you have an eastern-based coach who also happens to be French Canadian, it’s the equivalent of jury nullification. Murray never had a chance.

finally …

Top 5 Underrated Wilco songs:

1. How to Fight Loneliness

2. Muzzle of Bees

3. Box Full of Letters

4. Red-Eyed and Blue

5. Pot Kettle Black

Thanks for reading…

-Bernie