Good day…

Only one topic for now:

ANOTHER BAD START BY TODD WELLEMEYER:

Things aren’t getting any better for Wellemeyer, who allowed an emaciated Mets lineup to beat him 6-4 at Citi Field on Monday night. There was no excuse for that. The Mets are down, hit hard by injuries that have taken Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran out of the lineup. Wellemeyer had to come out and keep them down, and instead he got jumped for two first-inning runs. He went 5.2 innings and allowed 10 hits and 5 ER.

And Wellemeyer’s ERA for the season jumped to 5.53. Only nine starting pitchers in MLB have a higher ERA. Moreover, Wellemeyer has allowed 15.22 baserunners per nine innings, and that’s the highest/worst rate of any MLB starting pitcher. 

After Monday’s game, Wellemeyer mentioned that bad luck is part of the trouble, and that is true to some extent. The batting average against him on balls in play is .335. That’s higher than the norm.

But this is more than just bad luck. It’s bad pitching.

Let’s identify the problems, by deconstructiing Wellemeyer’s performance so far:

– Wellemeyer is getting the ball up, which means he isn’t getting enough ground balls. His GB rate of 48.6 percent is the lowest among Cardinals starters and glaringly low compared to the others. Joel Pineiro has a GB rate of 71.1 %, Brad Thompson is 68.9 %, Chris Carpenter is 64.7 % , Kyle Lohse is 60.6 %, and Adam Wainwright is 60.5 %.  Wellemeyer has never been a groundball machine, but the rate continues to get worse.

– Wellemeyer isn’t finishing off the hitters. We saw it again Monday when Daniel Murphy got down 0-2 to Wellemeyer but extended the AB to push the count to 3-2. Then he homered. Wellemeyer has really buckled when he has runners on and there are two outs in an inning. Of the 55 runs he’s allowed this season, 27 of the RBIs have occured with two outs. With runners in scoring position and two outs, Wellemeyer has been rocked for a .378 BA, .472 OBP and .667 SLG. Ouch.

– Hitters are assaulting Wellemeyer’s fastball this season. I won’t bore you with the specifics, but I looked at the detailed charts and the pitch has become very hittable. A slight loss in velocity may have something to do with it, or a lack of movement on the pitch may have something to do with it, but RH and LH hitters are mashing his fastball when he doesn’t pound it low in the zone. He’s left a lot of fastballs over the middle, and he’s gotten hurt when he’s tried to go inside with the fastball. And he’s been punished when he tries to throw fastballs up. Wellemeyer just isn’t locating it. And when he misses with the fastball, he’s not throwing it with enough steam to get it by the hitters.  The data shows that last season Wellemeyer was very effective at getting fastballs in on hitters and jamming them, and he had good success at getting the hitters to chase (and miss) his high heat.  It ain’t happening in 2009. And again: I have to believe that

– Wellemeyer isn’t using his slider as often, and it was a good pitch for him last year.

– Lefthanded hitters are mauling Wellemeyer.

The splits are staggering:

2008: .256 / .318 / .443

2009: .349 / .421 / 622

That’s a profound difference. Why? The pitch data shows that Wellemeyer was able to get LH hitters to chase his offspeed stuff last year. He’d set ‘em up with the fastball and then tantalize them with alternate pitches. Last season LH batters hit .185 against Wellemeyer’s offspeed pitches. This year? They aren’t chasing as much. And when they do swing, they’re connecting for .410 batting average.

Unless Wellemeyer can repair some of these issues, it’s hard to believe that the Cardinals will stick with him in the rotation once Lohse returns. Not with Thompson’s ground-ball factory cranking out those quality sinkers. 

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie