June 28: Analyzing the DeRosa Trade
Greetings. I’ll be writing a column about the Cardinals’ acquisition of Mark DeRosa for Monday’s paper, but that will probably be more along the lines of an overview. So in the Bernie Blog, I thought I’d offer some bullet-point analysis. Thanks.
* What’s the risk? What is the downside?
- DeRosa is in the walk year of his contract. He can become a free agent at the end of the season. If the Cardinals don’t sign him to a new contract, it means that they will have leased DeRosa for 86 games at the cost of about five years of relatively cheap labor from promising reliever Chris Perez. And they’ll be sending another prospect (probably a pitcher, candidates unknown) to the Indians in the future as part of the deal. Perez could become a good closer; the player to be named could emerge to make the deal even sweeter for Cleveland. But if DeRosa helps the Cardinals make it to the playoffs, the second-guessing will be greatly reduced.
- Also, DeRosa had only 23 career ABs as a cleanup hitter before he came to the Cardinals. Not enough to pass judgment, but he batted .217 there. Even though DeRosa batted 4th on Sunday, he’s not the prototype No. 4 hitter. He’s been good in the 5 hole, and in the 6 hole, and decent as a No. 2 hitter. But the Cardinals had to deepen this lineup, one way or another. A No. 4 hitter isn’t the only need; the Cardinals certainly need to strengthen other spots in the lineup. DeRosa had 50 RBIs at the time of the trade; only 19 MLB had more through Saturday. Only one Cardinal (Albert Pujols) has more RBIs than DeRosa. For all of the pleading for Matt Holliday, it should be noted that DeRosa has more homers (13) and RBIs (50) than Holliday (8-39) so far this season.
- According to the Dewan-James Fielding Bible ratings, DeRosa is a below-average third baseman. And in 2008, he was a below-average second baseman. But he does get good marks for his work in LF and RF.
* What are the plusses? Many:
- DeRosa plays multiple positions (3B, 2B, LF, RF, 1B) which is ideal for manager Tony La Russa, who usually makes the most out of such versatility. Given the hole at third base and the mediocre hitting by the outfielders, DeRosa’s bat can fit nicely into several spots. La Russa won’t have to continue to expose slumping hitters as much as he has been. It will be interesting to see the number of ways that La Russa deploys DeRosa. And DeRosa is a La Russa kind of player.
- DeRosa has hammered LH pitching. In 826 career ABs vs. the lefties, he’s batted .305 with a .375 onbase percentage and a .488 slugging percentage. With 30 homers and 125 RBIs. The Cardinals have been horrendous against lefties this season, batting .228 with a .309 OBP and .358 SLG. It’s even worse (.214 BA) since April 28.
-DeRosa is widely respected in the game, has a reputation for being an excellent presence in the clubhouse. He gets along with players of all ethnic backgrounds and personality. His is a unifying personality.
-DeRosa was coveted by other teams, some of whom will likely be competing with the Cardinals for a spot in the postseason. When you can beat the Cubs, Mets, Giants, Braves (and others) to the punch, that’s a real bonus. Another bonus is moving in on DeRosa early, which means getting an extra month out of him as opposed to teams who will wait until the July 31 trade deadline to make their play for help.
- The Cubs don’t like this. At all. Take a look at this piece from MLB.com to see ex-teammates comment on their buddy, DeRosa, becoming a Cardinal.
- This will be good for the morale of the team. La Russa and his staff and the players were working hard and battling like crazy to keep this team in the hunt for 1st place in the NL Central. To a man, they were waiting for help to arrive. If help didn’t arrive, a feeling of abandonment would have set in. Now they’ll get a boost, just by knowing that ownership and management are really behind them. Now they see proof that chairman Bill DeWitt and GM John Mozeliak have their backs.
-Maybe, just maybe, this addition will ease some of the pressure on Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, who have been asked to carry a big share of the load in support of Pujols. And that hasn’t gone well.
-The Cardinals tapped into a surplus to make this deal happen. The organization has a nice collection of RH relievers. The depth is very good. With Ryan Franklin sealed in as the closer through 2010, Perez was no longer on the brink of assuming the role; Jason Motte had moved ahead of him. Perez has talent, and he has a future. But for now Perez was working the 6th or 7th inning most of the time, and was only being asked to provide around 8 innings per month. And how difficult will it be to replace that?
For the short term the Cardinals traded 8 innings a month for about 30 at-bats a week.
For the short term the Cardinals traded a supporting member of their bullpen for a guy ranked 20th in the majors in RBIs.
The Cardinals have been building a better farm system for two reasons: (1) to funnel players to the big-league roster; (2) to increase and improve the depth and then deal from the surplus.
Sure, Perez (and the player to be named) could grow into something special. That’s the risk.
But it’s a risk worth taking. You only get so many chances to win. They’re precious. And if scouting director Jeff Luhnow is doing a good job, other RH reliever prospects will come along.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
If DeRosa was an NBA player, the one thing scouts would be saying about him is “he makes everyone around him better”. For my money, he was the (non-pitching) MVP of last year’s NL Central champions - this was a no-brainer for the Cardinals. My Cubs were idiots for trading him to begin with.
Kerouac must have meant that Derosa was last year’s MVP for the Cubs, excluding pitchers, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, and Alfonso Soriano. Each of those other 3 batters posted more HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, and OBPS.
Derosa is a decent pickup for another utility player that can’t hit .300 or 25HR, however he will have to exceed expectations to live up to his rent-a-player ransom of a young fireballer and the proverbial, often pivotal, player to be named later…
If there is not another move for somebody who can protect Albert and a SP of some type, the playoffs will still be in jeopardy.
I think someone said last year in the NL DeRosa was considered a type A FA, but the move the AL made him a type B.
I have no idea how accurate this is or not, but I could see him being a type A but even as a type B we could still get a pick out of him if he walks…
Relief pitchers are a dime a dozen. Lots of mediocre startes can be successfully converted to relievers. I just hope the Cards weren’t foolish enough to offer Boggs or Mortensen as the PTBNL. They’ll probably be needed next year. With the lackluster play of Ludwick and Ankiel, the team had to make a move. DeRosa might not be the world’s greatest cleanup hitter, but Ludwick will do a better job batting 5th and Ankiel 6th. Nice comparison of DeRosa to Holliday, Bernie.
Good info from you Bernie, as always. Regarding DeRosa’s defense, since he is a plus outfielder (He made the play of the day in left field today), I wonder if Tony will use him more there instead of the infield. However, with three infield errors today by three different players, he certainly can’t be any worse on the infield defensively than what we already have at 3rd and 2nd. I still think this will be a good deal for the club, and I think he was the right choice over Holliday. Holliday, at this point anyway, is running on his result as a successful hitter at Coor’s field when he played for Colorado. In other words, I think the book is still out on Holliday.
Thank you for your usual astute analysis. Along with the DeRosa trade, do you think that the production (and the psyches) of Ankiel and Ludwick would improve if LaRussa didn’t reduce them to platoon players? Neither one of them can think of himself as an everyday player or get any consistency or rhythm. Rasmus could be Rookie of the Year if he played everyday. Duncan cannot field and cannot run and his spot should be on the bench only, not nepotistic favorite outfielder of the manager. Thank you.
My first reaction was — Is that all it took? As long as Bret Wallace isn’t the player to be named later, the Cards did fine here. They need a productive bat and Perez is replaceable, the fact that DeRosa can play so many positions makes him invaluable. I’d like the Cardinals to ink DeRosa to a new deal in the off-season and keep him. A 3 year deal should be enticing enough and it would cost a lot less as opposed to Holliday. Have a good week!
Bernie..first thing I thought wasnt the easing of pressure on certain players, rather putting the pressure on certain people to get their game where it belongs, or prepare to remove the birds on the bat from their body. He is an invader, in a good way, and that should send that message.
DeRosa’s stats right now are better than anyone on the club except AP’s. Those who don’t want him must be the ones who are living in a dream world with Ankiel . OR else they put so much blind faith in BA that they do not see the RBIs, Runs Scored, HRs, etc.
So I think those folks can be safely ignored.
Bernie, I have to disagree with the idea that Perez is behind Motte. Motte appears to be the Cards version of Kyle Farnsworth, a very good fastball that doesn’t move along with a slider that gets crushed. I think Motte should have been the first RH moved. Additionally, I am not that enthused about the idea of Franklin as closer back to back seasons, he is not the prototypical blow-away closer.