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06.28.2009 3:14 pm

June 28: Analyzing the DeRosa Trade

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Greetings. I’ll be writing a column about the Cardinals’ acquisition of Mark DeRosa for Monday’s paper, but that will probably be more along the lines of an overview. So in the Bernie Blog, I thought I’d offer some bullet-point analysis. Thanks.

* What’s the risk? What is the downside?

- DeRosa is in the walk year of his contract. He can become a free agent at the end of the season. If the Cardinals don’t sign him to a new contract, it means that they will have leased DeRosa for 86 games at the cost of about five years of relatively cheap labor from promising reliever Chris Perez. And they’ll be sending another prospect (probably a pitcher, candidates unknown) to the Indians in the future as part of the deal. Perez could become a good closer; the player to be named could emerge to make the deal even sweeter for Cleveland. But if DeRosa helps the Cardinals make it to the playoffs, the second-guessing will be greatly reduced.   

- Also, DeRosa had only 23 career ABs as a cleanup hitter before he came to the Cardinals. Not enough to pass judgment, but he batted .217 there. Even though DeRosa batted 4th on Sunday, he’s not the prototype No. 4 hitter. He’s been good in the 5 hole, and in the 6 hole, and decent as a No. 2 hitter. But the Cardinals had to deepen this lineup, one way or another. A No. 4 hitter isn’t the only need; the Cardinals certainly need to strengthen other spots in the lineup. DeRosa had 50 RBIs at the time of the trade; only 19 MLB had more through Saturday. Only one Cardinal (Albert Pujols) has more RBIs than DeRosa. For all of the pleading for Matt Holliday, it should be noted that DeRosa has more homers (13) and RBIs (50) than Holliday (8-39) so far this season.

- According to the Dewan-James Fielding Bible ratings, DeRosa is a below-average third baseman. And in 2008, he was a below-average second baseman. But he does get good marks for his work in LF and RF.

* What are the plusses? Many:

- DeRosa plays multiple positions (3B, 2B, LF, RF, 1B) which is ideal for manager Tony La Russa, who usually makes the most out of such versatility. Given the hole at third base and the mediocre hitting by the outfielders, DeRosa’s bat can fit nicely into several spots. La Russa won’t have to continue to expose slumping hitters as much as he has been. It will be interesting to see the number of ways that La Russa deploys DeRosa. And DeRosa is a La Russa kind of player.

- DeRosa has hammered LH pitching. In 826 career ABs vs. the lefties, he’s batted .305 with a .375 onbase percentage and a .488 slugging percentage. With 30 homers and 125 RBIs. The Cardinals have been horrendous against lefties this season, batting .228 with a .309 OBP and .358 SLG. It’s even worse (.214 BA) since April 28.

-DeRosa is widely respected in the game, has a reputation for being an excellent presence in the clubhouse. He gets along with players of all ethnic backgrounds and personality. His is a unifying personality.

-DeRosa was coveted by other teams, some of whom will likely be competing with the Cardinals for a spot in the postseason. When you can beat the Cubs, Mets, Giants, Braves (and others) to the punch, that’s a real bonus. Another bonus is moving in on DeRosa early, which means getting an extra month out of him as opposed to teams who will wait until the July 31 trade deadline to make their play for help.

- The Cubs don’t like this. At all. Take a look at this piece from MLB.com to see ex-teammates comment on their buddy, DeRosa, becoming a Cardinal.

- This will be good for the morale of the team. La Russa and his staff and the players were working hard and battling like crazy to keep this team in the hunt for 1st place in the NL Central. To a man, they were waiting for help to arrive. If help didn’t arrive, a feeling of abandonment would have set in. Now they’ll get a boost, just by knowing that ownership and management are really behind them. Now they see proof that chairman Bill DeWitt and GM John Mozeliak have their backs.

-Maybe, just maybe, this addition will ease some of the pressure on Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, who have been asked to carry a big share of the load in support of Pujols. And that hasn’t gone well.

-The Cardinals tapped into a surplus to make this deal happen. The organization has a nice collection of RH relievers. The depth is very good. With Ryan Franklin sealed in as the closer through 2010,  Perez was no longer on the brink of assuming the role; Jason Motte had moved ahead of him. Perez has talent, and he has a future. But for now Perez was working the 6th or 7th inning most of the time, and was only being asked to provide around 8 innings per month. And how difficult will it be to replace that?

For the short term the Cardinals traded 8 innings a month for about 30 at-bats a week.

For the short term the Cardinals traded a supporting member of their bullpen for a guy ranked 20th in the majors in RBIs.

The Cardinals have been building a better farm system for two reasons: (1) to funnel players to the big-league roster; (2) to increase and improve the depth and then deal from the surplus.  

Sure, Perez (and the player to be named) could grow into something special. That’s the risk.

But it’s a risk worth taking. You only get so many chances to win. They’re precious. And if scouting director Jeff Luhnow is doing a good job, other RH reliever prospects will come along.

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie

25 comments

Comments are closed.

If DeRosa was an NBA player, the one thing scouts would be saying about him is “he makes everyone around him better”. For my money, he was the (non-pitching) MVP of last year’s NL Central champions - this was a no-brainer for the Cardinals. My Cubs were idiots for trading him to begin with.

— Kerouac
3:47 pm June 28th, 2009

Kerouac must have meant that Derosa was last year’s MVP for the Cubs, excluding pitchers, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, and Alfonso Soriano. Each of those other 3 batters posted more HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, and OBPS.
Derosa is a decent pickup for another utility player that can’t hit .300 or 25HR, however he will have to exceed expectations to live up to his rent-a-player ransom of a young fireballer and the proverbial, often pivotal, player to be named later…
If there is not another move for somebody who can protect Albert and a SP of some type, the playoffs will still be in jeopardy.

— fsuga00
3:58 pm June 28th, 2009

I think someone said last year in the NL DeRosa was considered a type A FA, but the move the AL made him a type B.
I have no idea how accurate this is or not, but I could see him being a type A but even as a type B we could still get a pick out of him if he walks…

— jealousblues
4:15 pm June 28th, 2009

Relief pitchers are a dime a dozen. Lots of mediocre startes can be successfully converted to relievers. I just hope the Cards weren’t foolish enough to offer Boggs or Mortensen as the PTBNL. They’ll probably be needed next year. With the lackluster play of Ludwick and Ankiel, the team had to make a move. DeRosa might not be the world’s greatest cleanup hitter, but Ludwick will do a better job batting 5th and Ankiel 6th. Nice comparison of DeRosa to Holliday, Bernie.

— BNC4477
5:21 pm June 28th, 2009

Good info from you Bernie, as always. Regarding DeRosa’s defense, since he is a plus outfielder (He made the play of the day in left field today), I wonder if Tony will use him more there instead of the infield. However, with three infield errors today by three different players, he certainly can’t be any worse on the infield defensively than what we already have at 3rd and 2nd. I still think this will be a good deal for the club, and I think he was the right choice over Holliday. Holliday, at this point anyway, is running on his result as a successful hitter at Coor’s field when he played for Colorado. In other words, I think the book is still out on Holliday.

— Richfromiowa
6:02 pm June 28th, 2009

Thank you for your usual astute analysis. Along with the DeRosa trade, do you think that the production (and the psyches) of Ankiel and Ludwick would improve if LaRussa didn’t reduce them to platoon players? Neither one of them can think of himself as an everyday player or get any consistency or rhythm. Rasmus could be Rookie of the Year if he played everyday. Duncan cannot field and cannot run and his spot should be on the bench only, not nepotistic favorite outfielder of the manager. Thank you.

— sj
6:09 pm June 28th, 2009

My first reaction was — Is that all it took? As long as Bret Wallace isn’t the player to be named later, the Cards did fine here. They need a productive bat and Perez is replaceable, the fact that DeRosa can play so many positions makes him invaluable. I’d like the Cardinals to ink DeRosa to a new deal in the off-season and keep him. A 3 year deal should be enticing enough and it would cost a lot less as opposed to Holliday. Have a good week!

— BillP
6:43 pm June 28th, 2009

Bernie..first thing I thought wasnt the easing of pressure on certain players, rather putting the pressure on certain people to get their game where it belongs, or prepare to remove the birds on the bat from their body. He is an invader, in a good way, and that should send that message.

— mtomto
8:04 pm June 28th, 2009

DeRosa’s stats right now are better than anyone on the club except AP’s. Those who don’t want him must be the ones who are living in a dream world with Ankiel . OR else they put so much blind faith in BA that they do not see the RBIs, Runs Scored, HRs, etc.

So I think those folks can be safely ignored.

— hinton
8:22 pm June 28th, 2009

Bernie, I have to disagree with the idea that Perez is behind Motte. Motte appears to be the Cards version of Kyle Farnsworth, a very good fastball that doesn’t move along with a slider that gets crushed. I think Motte should have been the first RH moved. Additionally, I am not that enthused about the idea of Franklin as closer back to back seasons, he is not the prototypical blow-away closer.

— DPorter15
8:29 pm June 28th, 2009

Like Ankiel, Ludwick and Duncan, DeRosa is better suited to hit somewhere else in the lineup. He too will be hitting behind the best hitter in the whole wide world and that could wear on him. While DeRosa adds depth to the lineup, I hope he does not become exposed in the four hole like everyone else has. The fact that he has rarely hit in that spot raises questions. Pujols is such a great hitter I would think the BRASS would be looking to at least get an experienced clean up hitter if they are dead serious on winning this year. DeRosa will be a great piece if he is utilized according to his strengths. If Ludwick plays every day he has a better chance of getting his stroke and could possibly be THAT CLEANUP GUY. Everyone else has to many holes in there bat to hold down that job. If DeRosa is the only hitting part we add I don’t know if he will be enough, especially if Khalil Greene continues to struggle with the demons that are oppressing him.

— drelboc
9:00 pm June 28th, 2009

I’ve given this trade alot of thought today, and just don’t like it. I remember Bernie saying at the time of the McGwire deal “it’s only a good trade if you sign him to a long term deal.” Bernie, I completely agreed with you then, and feel the same way about this trade now. The only redeeming quality that this trade could pose is if DeRosa has a great season, is signed to a long-term deal (as long term as a 32 year old player can get), and allows the team to move one of the current underperforming outfielders.

I also remember after the 2004 World Series, there was at least one article written in the Post Dispacth about the lack of power arms in the organization, and how management at the time indicated they would address that issue. Evidently, addressing that issue meant trading one of the few (young) power arms in the organization at the time (Dan Haren). Five years later, and they still have a lack of power arms in the organization; and one of the few they do have (Chris Perez) is traded for someone who doesn’t even address the biggest offensive need (a run producer at the cleanup spot). There’s a reason why teams consistently ask for Perez and Motte and not Brad Thompson and Kyle McClelland. Hard throwers are a precious commodity, and in this case I’m afraid we’ve traded away a precious commodity for little more than just another rental player.

— smg81170
9:16 pm June 28th, 2009

Again, where are the naysayers? I thought the FO was going to just watch over three million “sheeple” come through the gates while the team floundered to another 4th place finish. What about “keeping the powder dry”, gathering “low hanging fruit”, and protecting the Faberge eggs? What happened to those three theories? I thought “DeWallet” = cheap-cheap, not chirp-chirp? And how did “mozo the bozo” manage to pull off this trade when he had to outbid four other teams that are from larger markets? Wasn’t he incompetent? Why didn’t the Cards trade for the remainder of Aubrey Huff’s (fsuga) contract despite playing a considerable amount of games at 1B and or the DH, and hitting LH worse than RH? I thought the season was over last night when we stood at 41-35 and tied for first place? Could the naysayers have been wrong about the FO all this time? Maybe the facts about DeWitt’s willingness to keep this organization strong and competitive since buying the team in 1995 has just been supported again? But how could the naysayers be wrong when they supported their arguments so articulately with all their name calling? Maybe it’s because they only like to look at the small fraction of the facts that support their side while ignoring the larger fraction that dispells their so called “theories”? Are they not posting as much now because they were way off base? Could it be they can’t “man up” (as the Kahlil Greene hate mafia like to say) and admit they were wrong?

Naysayers… Eat crow!

— StubbyClapp
9:26 pm June 28th, 2009

One has to admire, I suppose, Stubby Clapp’s tireless energy in sounding his one note over and over again in every possible avenue available to him on the Post Dispatch website: the “haters” of the front office have been proven wrong for having the temerity for criticizing its failure to address the team’s readily apparent weaknesses, and Stubby, of course, has been proven right all along for his tireless defense of the front office now that it has finally made a move. A secondary theme is that the critics now owe management an apology for daring to express their doubts about their inaction and, by inference, they owe Stubby,management’s ardent defender, one as well. However, one can just as easily argue that the long overdue DeRosa deal merely confirms that the “haters” were right all along in attacking the front office’s failures to improve the offense, failures that should have been obvious to everyone, including Stubby, long before they apparently were. Perhaps, Stubby, you should be thanking us for helping to force management’s hand, since now that they have finally acted, they have according to your lights done the right thing (whatever they choose to do or not do being, of course, the right thing), but the very thing we have wanted to see happen all along

— Mike G
10:08 pm June 28th, 2009

Mike G: That was a well articulated sentiment, but let’s not go so far as to say I expect apologies to anyone from the naysayers. I just want to hear them say that they misjudged the FO, and that maybe we have a decent ownership group in DeWitt/Hanser/Bauer… that’s all. That’s a pretty simple expectation, don’t you think? It’s also quite presumptuous to say that the naysayers are responsible for this move one month prior to the trade deadline. That would be like me saying that the FO has been reading these threads for months, and they just wanted to support my claims. C’mon, get real. Maybe, just maybe, this is evidience that DeWitt and his staff really have the best interests of the team at heart. I just don’t understand why most of the naysayers can’t admit that is even a possibility.

— StubbyClapp
10:53 pm June 28th, 2009

A good analysis, although even the pros ebb and flow with the tide. When the offense rebounded briefly within the past two weeks, I understood Bernie to agree on his show with, I believe it was Strauss, that our bigger need was pitching. I could be mistaken.

— fivefinks
11:06 pm June 28th, 2009

You’re right, Stubby. This one trade makes up for ALL of the inactivity in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and even the 2009 off-season. I like this trade a lot, and I am glad management is finally acting. But to say this proves all the “naysayers were wrong all along about the FO” is a little shortsighted. It’s like giving a deadbeat dad the Father of the Year award for disappearing for four years straight and then showing up for Thanksgiving.

— cross-czech
11:08 pm June 28th, 2009

Man, FSuga, did you get tired of people calling you out for spewing erroneous “facts” about DeRosa on the other comment board? Just please give it up and admit that DeRosa was a good pick-up for THIS team at THIS time. we get the Perez was an ascending player and will probably be a good pitcher for 10-12 more years and DeRosa will only be a good hitter for the next 3 or 4 if we are lucky. THe trade was about help now. Also, i think Kerouac realizes that with a player like DeRosa, stats don’t tell the whole store. You are WRONG, just get over it.

— joeybittick
12:11 am June 29th, 2009

cross-czech: Point taken, but you also have to recognize that the shift towards player development started in 2005 with the promotion of Luhnow to VP of scouting and player development. You have to actually keep those “Faberge Eggs” that started with that year’s draft (Rasmus and T. Greene for example) to at least give the new direction a chance, and that means finding some bang-for-your-buck kind of deals. Drastic changes like this will always be accomanpanied by growing pains, but the naysayers don’t either (1)understand that, or (2) have the patience to endure it. I haven’t agreed with all the acquisitions in the last 4 years. Not even close, but I understand the new direction. For example, I ABSOLUTLELY HATED the FO banking on Clemente for 2008 when he was hurt and Carp / Mulder were also coming off injured seasons. But then Mo turned around and signed Lohse at the end of spring training, and then later re-signed him before heading to FA. He also managed to deal Rolen for Glaus straight up with no leverage in that same off season, his first as GM. Those two moves showed a lot of promise, so I took the Clemente signing with a grain of salt. I know I focus on the positive side of the issue almost all the time, maybe to a fault at times, but I have to in order to offer a different point of view when I’m so far outnumbered by the naysayers. Good night.. my bed is calling my name.

— StubbyClapp
12:20 am June 29th, 2009

I haven’t finished reading all of those posts, but I wanted to raise this point before i forget. Has anyone thought that maybe DeRosa may actually end up being better protection for Ludwick. Think about it, while he is by no means a SCARY bat, DeROsa is very solid, so I wonder if putting him in the 5th spot behind Ludwick in the 4 hole might offer some protection to Ludwick and help him recapture some of last years production. I do think that Ludwick’s numbers last year were a bit of a mirage, but i think that he could be a 25 homer 80-90 RBI guy consistently. So maybe it will help him not to have guys like Molina (who is a good average hitter, but doesn;t hit for enough power to be really scary) or the strikeout prone Ankiel or Duncan, but instead DeRosa, who has proven he can hit the ball pretty well.

I don’t know, what does everyone else think?

— joeybittick
12:20 am June 29th, 2009

Also, everyone who is complaining that DeRosa is not the “Big time cleanup hitter that we need,” I pose to you this question. UMMMM… how many of those type of players do you think there are out there in the MLB right now? Not too many. Now, to go even further, how many of them do you think other teams are just looking to trade away? If someone like Miguel Cabrera or Lance Berkman were available, I’m sure someone would have heard about it. Teams just aren’t going to give up those kinds of players. Once in a blue moon they do become available, and GM’s have to pay BOTH of their arms and legs to get them…. Come on people, think.

— joeybittick
12:25 am June 29th, 2009

Hey, StubbyClapp, don’t forget all of those people who were spouting off about how “The Rosenblooms aren’t the owners who need to sell their team (the Rams). DeWitt needs to just sell the Cardinals.” LOL those idiots who were saying that had me laughing for hours. Yeah, because DeWitt has only financed a team who has been to 2 World Series and payed for countless all stars since 95 (see Rolen, Edmonds, Walker, McGwire, Renteria, Pujols, Morris, Carpenter, Izzy, etc).

— joeybittick
12:31 am June 29th, 2009

Stubby, true. You do have to recognize the shift toward youth and I’m okay with that. But in order to be successful in the short term, it helps to sign a free agent or two, which the Cardinals rarely do. This off-season for example, we needed an SS, 2B, 3B, closer, LH relief, and another starter. We addressed the SS (although not very well) and LH relief (but only after we tried the cheapest alternative possible - Royce Ring??). We tried to replace from within for everything else with modest success. I think the point of the youth movement should be that their low salaries allow you to add pieces when necessary and not just to keep the payroll at historic lows. We’ll see how it goes. DeRosa is good move. I just hope they keep it up.

— cross-czech
7:43 am June 29th, 2009

Larussa plans to bat him 10th every other third Thursday day game

— unlost
9:04 am June 29th, 2009

Wow, a below average to average fielder and a 260-270 hitter and that sets the Cardinal Nation to buzzing and buzzing? I guess, it’s the state of the Major leagues now. (And of course he makes everyone around him better-I think there were 4 or 5 cubs around him with better stats..)

— docman
10:11 am June 30th, 2009