With the Cardinals and Cubs about to go at it with a four-game weekend set at Wrigley Field, it’s a good time for a quick-study update on the Cubs:
The Record: 41-41, and 3.5 games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central. But the Cubs have the best home record (25-16) in the division.
The Biggest Problem: A weak offense. Last season the Cubs were 2nd in the majors with an average of 5.31 runs per game; this year they rank 24th in the bigs with an average of 4.12 runs per game. They are 22nd in onbase percentage, and 23rd in slugging. Last season, the Cubs ranked 2nd and 5th in the majors in those categories. The Cubs alread have lost 14 games in which their pitchers allowed 3 runs or fewer. Sounds like the Cardinals.
The Primary Culprits: Catcher Geovany Soto, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, is batting .230 with 8 homers and his status is uncertain after he strained an oblique muscle earlier this week … Alfonso Soriano, dropped to sixth in the lineup, is batting .230 with a .292 OBP. But since April 29, Soriano is hitting .203 with a .257 OBP… in addition to creating dysfunction within, costly import Milton Bradley has only 19 RBIs and is batting .236 and is a mediocre outfielder… and though he has solid overall numbers including a .382 OBP, center fielder Kusuke Fukudome is batting .202 with a .294 OBP since June 3, but has gotten hot over the last several days after being moved to the leadoff spot.
The Returning Star: Third baseman Aramis Ramirez went out on May 8 with a dislocated shoulder. During his absence the Cubs went 24-26, batted .247 and averaged 3.9 runs per game. He returned to the lineup earlier this week. Ramirez regularly punishes Cardinals’ pitchers; in 31 games vs. STL since the start of the 2007 season he’s batting .348 with a .408 OBP and .591 SLG. And 6 homers with 24 RBIs.
The Former Cardinal: Cardinals fan favorite Aaron Miles, signed to a surprisingly robust two-year deal ($5 million) by the Cubs last offseason, has been a non-factor. He batted .203 before heading to the DL.
The Bullpen: The Cubs have had major problems in the late innings. Their relievers are 24th in the majors in save percentage, nailing down 19 saves in 32 attempts, and taking 13 losses. Cubs relievers have the highest walk rate in the majors.
The Rotation: Overall it’s been a positive; the Cubs rank 5th in the majors with a 3.80 starting-pitcher ERA. And the rotation leads the majors with 53 quality starts. There are some issues; Carlos Zambrano, who had a stint on the DL, has only 4 wins. But let’s not get carried away; even though the Big Z hasn’t been in top form, he still has a 3.47 ERA and is capable of shutting down any lineup. Ryan Dempster is on the DL now. Rich Harden has been a huge disappointment; he has a Wellemeyer-like ERA of 5.35. And in his last nine starts, Harden is 3-4 with a 6.00 ERA and has allowed 78 baserunners and 10 homers in 48 IP. Belleville native Randy Wells has quietly rescued this rotation by going 4-3 with a 2.48 ERA that’s the lowest among Cubs starters. And Ted Lilly is having another fine season, 8-6 with a 3.32 ERA.
The All-Star: That would be Lilly, the Cubs’ lone representative on the NL squad for Tuesday’s MLB All-Star Game at Busch Stadium. Last season the Cubs had eight players on the NL roster.
The Turmoil: Zambrano was suspended for his antics against an umpire, and he tried to wreck the Cubs dugout in a tantrum … Soriano isn’t pleased by how Piniella is using him … Bradley and Piniella got into it in a game at the White Sox late last month; Piniella ordered the chronic malcontent to take the uniform off and go home… Bradley made waves by suggesting the umpires were out to get him; he made more waves by suggesting that the Cubs had double standards for their players….Piniella seemed irritated with an intreviewer from the Chicago Tribune, who wanted to know if the manager had lost competitive fire… Dempster injured his toe when hopping over a short railing in front of the dugout and had to go on the DL… Lilly was ejected from a game for screaming at an umpire from the dugout … Cubs players and fans and media have not tried to conceal their disdain over the trade that sent DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians. And now DeRosa is a Cardinal. An injured Cardinal, but still… I am probably leaving a few things out, but you get the idea. Not a happy club.
What’s at Stake: The Cubs are still in the thick of the teams trying to rise from the muck in the NL Central, and they’re still the most dangerous team in the division. But they have to come together, end the shenanigans, and start playing with a shared purpose. This series gives the Cubs a terrific opportunity to make a statement and go into the break on a good note. This series gives the Cardinals a chance to intensify the Cubs’ misery and take a firmer grip on the division as they head home for the All-Star Game.
The Quotes:
Manager Lou Piniella: “‘There’s nothing else to say. There really isn’t. I get asked the same questions every day. Every day. And I think what you need to do is go ask the players why they’re not hitting instead of asking me. Or go talk to the hitting coach.”
Hitting coach Von Joshua, who replaced the fired Gerald Perry three weeks ago: “Everybody’s trying to hit the ball out of the ballpark. I can’t go hit for them; all I can do is give them the message. These are big-league guys, and some of them make a lot of money. I’ve shown some of the guys what’s going on with their mechanics and why they’re doing what they’re doing. But you’ve got to execute.”
The Likely Pitching Matchups: Chris Carpenter vs. Rich Harden (FRI), Brad Thompson vs. Ted Lilly (SAT), Adam Wainwright vs. Randy Wells (Game 1 SUN), Kyle Lohse vs. Carlos Zambrano (Game 2 SUN).
The Schedule: This will be the Cardinals’ last visit to Wrigley Field this season; the teams have one series left, in STL from Sept 18-20… the Cubs will have only 36 home games after the All-Star break and 23 will be against Houston (7), Pittsburgh (6), Cincinnati (6), and Milwaukee (4) … after the All-Star break the Cubs will play 17 of their next 24 on the road… the Cubs also have a chance to beat up the Washington Nationals; the teams meet seven times after the break … looking way ahead, the Cubs have what could be killer road trip in the final month of the season; from Sept. 18-27 they’ll play 3 at St. Louis, 3 at Milwaukee and 4 at San Francisco… the Cubs will close with six consecutive at home (Pittsburgh, Arizona).
Thanks for reading…
-Bernie