Greetings.

As the Cardinals pause for the All-Star break, let’s examine the outfield:

1. Rick Ankiel’s Weak Shoulder:  The weekend timing of this disclosure was interesting. Ankiel’s batting average for the season has dropped to .215, and he has only 5 homers in 245 plate appearances. During the Chicago series, Ankiel and manager Tony La Russa acknowledged that Ankiel’s right shoulder hasn’t been 100 percent since he slammed into the wall while making a spectacular catch on May 4. That collision landed Ankiel on the DL, and in 153 PA since his return he’s hitting .197 / .248 / .338.  So, yeah, we can see how the shoulder could be impacting Ankiel’s performance.

But here’s the problem with that: he wasn’t hitting before this happened. Ankiel started to tail off in the second half of the 2008 season. From Aug. 14, 2008 until his injury on May 5 of this season, Ankiel’s hitting line for 149 plate appearances was .200 / .289 / .362 , with only five homers.

Ankiel could be hurt, yes. And that could be a factor, yes. But it’s also entirely possible that we’re looking at a traditional baseball storyline. Ankiel has a lot of holes in his swing. His strike-zone judgment is lacking. Major League pitchers know how to exploit those weaknesses. Hitters either adjust, seal up the holes, or they’re doomed to fail. Once the pitchers figured out how to attack him, has Ankiel adapted? There is no evidence to suggest that he has.

The shoulder may be a separate issue. It certainly doesn’t help his cause. If the shoulder is bothering Ankiel , then the Cardinals should place him on the DL when play resumes after the All-Star break. He isn’t helping the team. Maybe Ankiel can help the team if the shoulder gets better. It probably wouldn’t hurt him to take a time out and clear his head, either.

2. The Ascendance of Colby Rasmus: Clearly, one of the highlights of the Cardinals’ first half was the on-the-job improvement of their rookie centerfielder. In the minors, Rasmus usually started slowly at each level before clicking in and putting up very good numbers. It’s happened again in his big-league debut season. Since June 1, Rasmus is batting .333 / .364 / .579 with 6 homers among his 17 extra-base hits.

And the kid is hammering the RH pitchers. Since June 1, the Rasmus OPS vs. RH is 1.017, and that ranks 8th during that time among all National League hitters. Here’s what Rasmus has done against the righties since June 1: .343 BA, .380 OBP, .637 SLG, six homers, 10 doubles.

And what about his defense? Among MLB center fielders who have played at least 500 innings, The Raz has a UZR (ultimate zone rating) of 12.0, which ranks second in the majors to Seattle’s Franklin Gutierrez. The first half sets up nicely as a launching pad for Rasmus, who will resume his strong run for Rookie of the Year Honors when play resumes following the All-Star break.

3. Rasmus, Ludwick … and now what? As I wrote in Saturday’s “Bits” column, the best thing that happened on the Cardinals’ road trip through Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Chicago was Ryan Ludwick’s bust-it-loose streak that reestablished him as a force in the the crucial No. 4 spot in the lineup. Since June 28, Ludwick is 22 for 55 (.400) with 4 homers, 18 RBIs and a .764 slugging pct.  The Cardinals wouldn’t be able to ignite their offense unless Ludwick could punish pitchers for avoiding Albert Pujols or cash in on RBI opportunities when Pujols makes an out in the three spot of the lineup.

So the Cardinals have two OF spots accounted for. Rasmus and Ludwick will be every day players (except for the occasional day off or for when they’re about to encounter a particularly bad matchup. But here’s the obvious problem: the Cardinals don’t have a third outfielder worthy of considerable playing time. We’ve already discussed Ankiel, but Chris Duncan is just as futile these days. Duncan had a very good April, and he was one of the reasons for the team’s good start. But in 207 plate appearances since May 2, he has only two homers and is batting .196. That’s unacceptable. I’ve always strongly defended the premise that it’s fine to play Duncan a lot as long as he is producing offensively. Well, he isn’t. And I wonder if something is wrong with him, physically, because he seems to have his head up a lot, and can’t stay down on the ball when he swings. The Cardinals say everything is fine with Duncan’s neck/back. But last season Duncan played hurt, and it affected his power, and the Cardinals never divulged the injury. So I don’t know what to believe.

But we all can agree on this: this team needs to find or cultivate a third outfielder. Does Nick Stavinoha warrant additional ABs? He’s worth a look, yes. But would he really lift the production from a corner OF spot over the long run? I doubt it.

Here’s an idea that many are espousing, and one that would be immediately and adamantly shot down by La Russa: call up No. 1 hitting prospect Brett Wallace from AAA Memphis, put him at third base, move Joe Thurston to 2B, and relocate Skip Schumaker back to the outfield. 

The only way I’d hold off on this is if it looks (legitimately) that  Mark DeRosa will be back sooner than expected in returning from the DL with that wrist injury. But if the Cardinals are to hold off the Cubs, Brewers, Astros and Reds — they just can’t keep playing so many games where they have gaping holes at what have traditionally been considered power-production spots. I’m talking about 3B, and I’m talking about the corner OF. You just can’t continue to run Ankiel and Duncan out there to fail on a daily basis. And you have to get more out of 3B; at the break the Cardinals ranked 28th in RBI, 28th in OBP and 27th in the majors at the 3B position. It has to change, and Wallace certainly could do better than that. 

Thurston has chipped in offensively for the last week or so, and that’s a positive. I’m not saying he’s the solution at 2B, either. But do you believe for a moment that Manager La Russa will turn the 2B job over to Jarrett Hoffpauir? Not a chance. And all I’m saying is, if La Russa is going to play Thurston until more attractive options become available, Thurston handles 2B better than he does 3B. 

And Schumaker, despite an effort that deserves applause, is the poorest-rated 2B in the majors, with a UZR of minus 7.9. Schu ideally belongs in the outfield.  (Though I want to add this: some of you already have correctly pointed out that Schumaker’s UZR is gradually improving as the season has gone on, and that’s a good observation. Again, I don’t want to dog Schumaker, who is a true-red Cardinal. One of the best guys around. A great competitor. But I also don’t think we should gloss over his defense; some in the STL media have praised Schu’s play to the point that I believe they are misleading people about the quality of his defense. That’s my complaint.)  

Wallace - soon — belongs in St. Louis.

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie