July 2: Ryan Franklin, All-Star?
I’ll try to take up less of your time this morning/evening:
1. Ryan Franklin Deserves to be an NL All-Star: The bearded one got the win Wednesday night, pitching a one-two-three 10th as the Cardinals edged the Giants 2-1 in 10 innings. This was a “clean” win in that it didn’t come after Franklin blew a save. He’s 2-0 on the season (though the first win at Cincinnati, did come after a blown save). Franklin has saved 18 games in 19 attempts and four of his saves were achieved by throwing 1+ innings. He hasn’t allowed a base runner in his last three appearances. The batting average against him this season dropped to .174. His ERA is down to 0.90. His rate of base runners per nine innings is third-best among NL relievers. One nitpick from the statheads: Franklin’s FIP (Fielding Independent ERA) of 3.25 seems unsually high; even though I think that stat, generally speaking, has merit).
Oh, I’m sure the stat boys can come up with some hopelessly esoteric mathematical equation that will tell us that Franklin is somehow a bad pitcher, or not deserving of accolades. or that he’s no better than, say, Ricky Bottalico. But some perspective usually helps. Also helps to watch the game. And to have a memory. Remember the 9th inning last season? A horrow show for the Cardinals’ relievers? All of those blown saves and late leads that slipped away? Now: think about what Franklin has done to alleviate a problem that tore last season apart, and was threatening to do the same in ‘09. You could make a case that Franklin qualifies as the No. 2 MVP of the 2009 Cardinals for the first half of 2009. I guess you could figure out the identity of No. 1.
I nominate Franklin in using the formula that usually applies to All-Star selections; they go with starters and closers. Maybe there are some better relievers out there who don’t close. I don’t doubt that. But when the roster is chosen every summer, it’s all about starters and closers. And Franklin fits. There are some exceptional closers in the NL this season (Broxton, Rodriguez, Street, Cordero, Bell, Wilson, etc.) but unless Franklin gets smacked around over the next few days, the case can be made (by reasonable people) that he rates a spot on the NL squad, especially with the All-Star Game game being played in St. Louis.
2. Joe Thurston? I don’t know what to say. I do not want to be disrespectful in any way. Look, I like the guy. He’s an underdog you want to root for. He’s plugged away, been a grinder, never gave up on the dream, finally stayed in the bigs for more than a cup of java. He’s a terrific person. I don’t forget what he did for the Cardinals in April, filling in (mostly at 3B) on an emergency basis, and batting .278 / .371 / .407 for the month. He contributed to a winning month. And unlike a lot of the STL hitters, Thurston will actually take walk. But here’s the lowdown: since May 6, Thurston is batting .172 / .304 / .276. And he’s made seven errors during that time. On the season, Thurston has made nine outs on the bases, frequently getting nailed on helter-skelter dashes. I can’t fault the dude; Thurston isn’t writing out the lineup card. Thurston is here because Troy Glaus got hurt, and David Freese got hurt, and because Brian Barden went 10 for 69 (.145) and got demoted. But surely the Cardinals can come up with something better than what Thurston has been giving them for the last couple of months. Can Jarrett Hoffpauir play third until Mark DeRosa is ready?
3. RBIs aren’t an important measuring unit for judging a hitter’s value: I didn’t realize that. When I wrote about DeRosa’s impressive RBI total the other day, I received a few e-mails from perturbed quasi sabermatricians, informing me that RBIs are meaningless. Thanks for that. I guess I’m crazy, but as I watched the Cardinals struggle for one run into the 8th inning on Wednesday, I was thinking that an RBI might be a good idea. I saw them load the bases with two outs in the 8th. The score was tied 1-1. Thurston was up. Now, I know this is an old-fashioned, outdated and total-dinosaur concept that has kept mainstream sportswriting in the dark ages … but I sort of thought it might be beneficial for the Cardinals right there if Thurston delivered a single to drive in a run or two. You know, I pondered the possibilities and thought that maybe an RBI single in that situation – to give the Cardinals a 2-1 or 3-1 lead – might be a more desirable outcome than, say, a strikeout to end the inning. Thurston, indeed, struck out. Perhaps he was also informed that RBIs were not all that important.
(Sarcasm. I’m just kidding. Relax. Thank you.)
4. Adam Wainwright, Part I: Waino is usually the intellectual property of Derrick Goold, so I am straying into dangerous territory here by saying a couple of things about him. First: this is one tough-minded pitcher. He hasn’t been as sharp as usual this season, and he’s allowing about two more runners per nine innings compared to last year, but the man fights his way out of jams more times than he probably should. (Example: 8th inning Wednesday against the Giants. Bases loaded, no outs, he allowes one run). Another thing is, Wainwright attacked the Giants the way pitching coach Dave Duncan has been imploring him to do with all hitters: use his fastball to set them up for the kill, then polish ‘em off with the curve. That was the case Wednesday. Not all the time, but most of the time. I added this up hastily and may be off by a pitch or two. But by my count, Wainwright got 17 outs on curves, including 10 of his 12 Ks. But he used the two-seam fastball effectively. It was a good plan.
5. Adam Wainwright, Part II: Where is the offense? Why is he slumping, just like he’s another Cardinals outfielder? In 2007-2008, Wainwright was about as fine a hitting pitcher as you’d hope to see. In 122 ABs over the two seasons, he batted .279 with a .305 OBP, a .369 SLG, five doubles, two homers, and 12 RBIs. This year? He looks like a pitcher. He looks like he doesn’t know what a bat is. In 43 ABs, Wainwright has six hits (.140 BA) and one homer. He’s struck out 12 times. I guess Wainwright has caught whatever it is that’s infected the STL lineup.
Thanks as always for reading …
-Bernie
B - I think the point trying to be made is that RBI’s are context dependent…an argument you have also made when arguing for Pujols as MVP versus Ryan Howard because Howard gets so many more opportunities hitting in a better PHI lineup. That is where the raw RBI numbers comparison loses its meaning.
Mind you I agree with you that DeRosa is a very good player who does not deserve the “utility player” tag. He is versatile but he is far superior to Aaron Miles for instance. He represents a significant upgrade to this team.
On Joe Thurston…he would be a fine Aaron Miles for this team but he is not an everyday player and he has no business EVER playing the OF. I am still unsure why the club is unwilling to give Allen Craig a shot. Our offense cannot get worse and there is no way he can be as bad as Thurston at 3B.
Rbi(a) + Runners in scoring position avg.(b) - runners not in scoring position(c) - 5 run lead or better after 7th inning(d) x combined rbi when game is outta reach (e) = the price of beer
trust me it works out. I use the same method to bet on horses.
But I gotta go with my gut on this one,..rbi = runs ,.. lots of runs win games, more rbi good, no rbi bad. And even if the game is 9-2 and a rbi makes it 9-3 that is moving in the right direction, but I am Polish too.
On a more serious note,.. I agree Franklin is a allstar. With Tony being a coach on the team, you think he’ll push for him to be selected? Or does he even get a say in the matter?
And as much as I like Thurston, perhaps it may be time to recall Barden for another shot and send Joe down for some instructions for a bit.
Of course RBIs are important! While they are somewhat dependent on supporting players, they represent the run-producing capability of a player. While it would be naive to say that a player with 115 RBIs is leagues beyond another with 100, it is perfectly fair to say that he is much more productive than one with 80. And yes, it’s easier to get RBIs with other players on base, and some players come to the plate with fewer on base than others (on average), but over the course of 162 games, these patterns tend to more or less even out. More importantly, the RBI measures (at least partially) the batter’s ability to come through in clutch situations (or at least in situations with runners on base).
RBIs are still a relevant stat, however not finely tuned. Small (let’s say, 15 or less) differences in RBI totals should not be considered telling, but large ones usually show the difference between a producer and a non-producer (this is not to say that leadoff hitters, typically with low RBI totals, are unproductive; it simply says that they don’t push the runs through). This is why it is relevant that at the time of the DeRosa trade, he was 20th in RBIs. However, if stat jockeys are eager to discredit the RBI as the gold standard of evaluating hitters, I’ll bite. If you have to judge by another stat, judge by OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging) rather than just On-Base Percentage.
FWIW, Franklin became a fulltime reliever in 2006 - and it was Charlie Manuel, this year’s ASG manager, who made him a reliever after he’d been a so-so starter with the Mariners.
Franklin pitched in 46 games of relief for Philly that year before being traded to the Reds in August; he came aboard the Cardinals the following season and had an excellent 2007 (which many people seem to have forgotten).
He regressed last year, to be sure, but he has spoken earlier this season about how he was feeling the pressure of having Jason Isringhausen looming behind him (figuratively speaking) hoping to reclaim his closer’s role, and how he felt much more comfortable out there this season with that particular pressure now gone; all he has to do now is just go out there and pitch.
At any rate, with both Manuel and TLR having some input on the selections of the team, I’d think Franklin’s chances are pretty good of making the team. The guy who probably *won’t* make it is Chris Carpenter - despite being one of the better pitchers in the NL, I just can’t see him making the team on the strength of just five wins in the first half of the season; the injury cost him, and his recent “struggles” haven’t helped. I’d like to see him on the team, but I’d almost prefer he get the week off instead and come back well rested and ready to kick some NL butt in the second half.
The sad thing about Carpenter’s not making the team, BTW, is that it’s entirely possible - indeed, even likely, given the rule that requires every team to have an ASG representative - that Jason Marquis will make the All-Star team this year as the Rox really don’t have any other candidates except perhaps for Troy Tulowitski.
Any system that keeps a Chris Carpenter off the team and allows a Jason Marquis on *to* the team is obviously flawed.