I hope you are having a good day.

1. Enough, Already, with Wellemeyer: How much more evidence (and poor starts) do Tony La Russa and PC Dave Duncan need to see before they conclude that the Cardinals must try someone new as the 5th starter?

The case against Wellemeyer is overwhelming:

ERA: 2nd worst in the majors at 5.68. Only Ricky Nolasco (FLA) has a higher ERA, 5.77

BA: it’s .320 against Wellemeyer, highest (worst) in the majors.

BR/9: Wellemeyer is allowing a rate of 15.82 baserunners per 9 innings, highest (worst) in the majors.

OPS: The combined onbase/slugging against Wellemeyer (.877) is highest (worst) in the majors. Nearly four of every 10 batters he faces (.392) reach base.

BA/RISP: With runners in scoring position, the batting average against Wellemeyer is .337; only five MLB pitchers have allowed a higher BA with RISP. With runners in scoring position and two out, the BA against Wellemeyer is .365.

Quality Starts: Only 6. There are 116 pitchers with more QS so far this season.

Innings Pitched: Wellemeyer has thrown 5 innings or fewer in eight of his 19 starts. He’s gone 6 innings or less in 14 of his 19 starts. That’s led to heavy-duty work by the STL bullpen. Cardinals relievers have been called in to pitch 66.2 innings so far this season on days that Wellemeyer starts. That’s way too much. It’s a double whammy. Not only is Wellemeyer pitching poorly, but he’s chewing up the bullpen as well.

The problem, of course, is the absence of an attractive replacement.

That’s one reason why I’ve given Duncan and La Russa the benefit of the doubt. The starters at Class AAA just aren’t exciting alternatives. However: in his last two starts, Mitchell Boggs has thrown 15 shutout innings so perhaps he’ll warrant another look with the big club. Boggs had some good moments pitching for the Cardinals over the last two seasons; on April 25 of this season he pitched 5.2 innings against the Cubs and didn’t allow an earned run. But Boggs, like Wellemeyer, doesn’t pitch many innings. In his 10 major-league starts, he’s pitched only 6 or more innings only three times. He’s allowed 94 baserunners in 51.1 IP as a starter, which is simly awful. Some Cardinals fans will point out that the team had an 8-2 record when Boggs starts, but that’s primarily due to generous run support. The Cardinals averaged 6.6 runs for Boggs in his 10 starts. But he does seem to be pitching better at Memphis.   

I thought Blake Hawksworth looked solid enough in his time with the big-league club. After getting slapped around in his debut (in relief), Hawksworth pitched 10 scoreless innings over his next seven appearances (all in relief). He threw strikes. He walked only one. And while Hawksworth’s groundball rate (50 percent) wasn’t anything special, it is superior to Wellemeyer’s GB rate (47.7). Hawksworth is back in the Memphis rotation and has made one start; after pitching in relief for the Cardinals he has to stretch out his arm as a starter. He went only 4 IP in his first start back with Memphis. But I think Hawksworth earned credibility during his trial run with the Cardinals. Maybe he deserves a shot at starting in St. Louis.

One way or another, I find it difficult to believe that the Cardinals can’t do better than Wellemeyer. Based on the stats, they could hardly do worse. 

2. Pitching Duel Tonight:  Looking forward to settling in and watching Chris Carpenter vs. Roy Oswalt at Minute Maid Park. Two big names. Two No. 1 starters. And it’s unique for another reason: it will match baseball’s winningest home-park pitcher against baseball’s most successful road pitcher.

Since the start of the 2004 season, Carpenter has the best road winning percentage (.744) of any MLB starter. He’s 32-11.  And Oswalt has been the best at home, going 52-16 for a winning percentage of .765.

After giving away Monday’s game, and then getting Wellemeyered last night, the Cardinals need to win Wednesday night’s game to avoid a 3-game sweep and prevent the Astros from creeping within one game of first place in the NL Central. Carpenter is clearly game for the assignment.

3. Mark DeRosa and the Wrist: I had concerns about DeRosa’s power, given all of that tape wrapped around his damaged wrist. But DeRosa alleviated those concerns with the two homers against Houston Tuesday night. And both came off fastballs, which is a good sign. Getting onto the road seems to have been a positive thing for DeRosa, who badly wants to impress Cardinals fans. Quality guy, quality player.

Thanks for reading…

-Bernie