July 8: Roy Halladay and the Cardinals
Good day ..
Jordan Bastian, who covers the Toronto Blue Jays for MLB.com, reports that the Cardinals are among six teams that have expressed “serious” interest in trading for Roy Halladay, the Jays’ ace starter.
The other five are the Yankees, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers and Angels. Based on other media reports today I would add the Red Sox and Phillies to the list to make it eight teams who have interest in Halladay.
Let’s take a look…
The Pitcher: Halladay may be the best starter in baseball. He’s 141-68 with a 3.47 ERA and has a Cy Young in his career, and that’s with pitching all of those games against the powerful lineups from the Yankees and Red Sox. This season Halladay is 10-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He’s sensational. And he’s a dedicated, team-oriented star. There’s no diva in this guy’s personality. In many ways, Halladay is just like his close buddy, Cardinals’ ace Chris Carpenter. A Cardinals rotation led by Halladay, Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse would be scary.
The Reason for a Trade: Finances. Halladay is 32; he’s signed through next season. He likes Toronto, and is said to be a loyal guy, and even has a no-trade clause. But Halladay has never competed in the postseason and it’s something he probably wants to do. And getting there with the Blue Jays will be difficult because they play in the AL East. And the franchise is apparently is having issues that warrant a reduction in payroll, so that rules out giving Halladay a long-term contract extension for CC Sabathia money ( 7 years, $161 million) or even A.J. Burnett money (5 years, $82 million.)
The Blue Jays owe underachievers Vernon Wells $99 million, and Alex Rios $60 million in long-term contracts. Scott Rolen is owed $11 million in 2010. (Update) the Blue Jays released reliever B.J. Ryan on Wednesday and will now eat the entire $15 million sum left on his contract. And Lyle Overbay is a $7 million player next season.
Halladay is making $14.75 million this season, and around half of that is due for the rest of the season. His salary for next season is $15.75 million.
That isn’t bad if a team just wants to keep him through 2010.
If the goal is to slash payroll, Halladay is by far the most marketable big-dollar player on the Toronto roster.
What the Jays Want: Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi is said to be seeking a trade that would bring several high-end prospects in return. Given the financial restraints of many clubs, prospects are the gold pieces in today’s baseball economy. Most teams want to collect as many as possible. So if you’re going to give up a slew of legit prospects for Halladay, you can’t do it without signing him to a long-term contract extension. Wiping out your farm system to rent him for a year and a half doesn’t make a lot of sense. And even if you do give Halladay a Sabathia or Burnett contract, you’ll be committing to paying him a ton of guaranteed dollars into his late 30s. Will he be the same pitcher in a few years? Will Halladay break down? After giving Carpenter a 5-yr, $63.5 million deal in Dec. 2006, the Cardinals were burned when Carpenter’s elbow went bad. He pitched 21.1 innings over the next two seasons, 2007-2008. Pitchers are risky business.
If no team is willing to give up the truck load of prospects, perhaps the Jays will feel pressure to dump payroll, which would lead them to back off their demands and just take the best offer on the table at the July 31 trade deadline.
Are the Cardinals a Fit? Doubtful. They just don’t have an abundance of elite prospects. But Erik Manning of FutureRedbirds.net told me that the Blue Jays showed a lot of pre-draft interest in Brett Wallace and Pete Kozma, two prospects that landed in the St. Louis organization as first-round picks. Would Wallace and Kozma be enough to get it done? I doubt it. But what if the Cardinals threw in two other high-level prospects? Then things would get interesting. But you’d also be stripping away your farm system, and that goes against everything we’ve been told by owner Bill DeWitt and VP of Player Development Jeff Luhnow. These guys aren’t going to give away the farm for a short-term rental.
And even if DeWitt wanted to take the leap, is he willing to pay up to keep Halladay in a St. Louis uniform for the next eight or nine seasons? The Cardinals already have 50 million in guaranteed payroll commitments in 2010, and that doesn’t include a couple of arbitration cases (Skip Schumaker most notably). If you add Halladay’s salary to the 2010 team, you’d be up to about $65 million. And you’d be paying around $55 million to four players – Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse and Halladay. The dollars given to four players would eat up more than half the payroll.
It’s largely the same situation in 2011; the Cardinals have $54 million payroll dollars on the books. And Pujols contract expires after 2011. He’s going to break the bank if he stays and if the Cardinals are willing to pay him. Even with Carpenter’s contract up after 2011, how could the Cardinals afford to invest between $40 million and $50 million in two Thirtysomething players, Pujols and Halladay? I just don’t see the Cardinals as a realistic fit in the Halladay sweepstakes.
The only way this could change is if Toronto doesn’t receive the kind of trade offers it wants, and lowers the exchange rate for Halladay. That would make a rental more appealing — though it would still cost the Cardinals a helluva lot more than, say, giving up Chris Perez for Mark DeRosa.
But understand that a drop in Toronto’s demands would also entice more trade partners to the table, and they’d surely be aggressive. The Cardinals would not be alone. But if the price goes lower than expected, the Cardinals would have a chance to pull it off … even if Holladay is a rental for a year and a half. I remain skeptical, however.
If the Cardinals want starting pitching, a more realistic option may be one of the Arizona properties, Jon Garland or Doug Davis.
Personally, I still believe the Cardinals need another bat more than anything — especially with Mark DeRosa likely being on the DL for the next four to eight weeks.
Update: Here’s some info from New York Post baseball columnist Joel Sherman.
The first link contains a rough outline of a trade with Toronto based on Sherman’s conversation with the Toronto GM.
This link has Sherman’s take on why the Cardinals may be able to measure up as we assess contenders for Halladay.
Thanks for reading…
-Bernie
1) I agree with all of that Bernie, but at the same time think of Carp, Halladay, and Wainwright, and think WS championship. That would be worth it to me.
2) Jon Garland is just no good. Don’t see him as an upgrade at all.
wait a minute….”with Mark DeRosa likely being on the DL for the next four to eight weeks”
where did THAT come from??????
Yeah, Bern…what is all this 4-8 weeks malarkey?
It’s a partially torn tendon in his wrist…that’s not a deep bruise or anything. I think it will be a while before DeRosa is back in the lineup
Bill has the money, but I agree with Bernie. He isn’t worth Zito, CC Sabaithia bucks. He is good, but that doesn’t always mean success. Just look at the Yankees. They was $40 million in the hole, payroll wise, last season and wound up out of the playoffs. Re-sign Pujols this season and give Carp an extension, then see where Halliday fits in the scheme of things. The Cards usually only offer 3 yr deals to pitchers anyway, because of all the uncertainity with their health status.
The priority this season should be finding another RH power bat. After this season, it should be signing Pujols to a contract extension. There will be plenty of money to give Skip a raise (transfer Ankiel’s salary after letting him go to free agency). Also, the Cards need to hang on to Brett Wallace. He will probably bat in the #2 slot next year. Subtracting the salaries of Glaus, Ankiel, Wellemeyer, Khalil Greene, and Adam Kennedy should make for a competitive off-season for the front office.
bernie–the arizona diamondbacks want to move DAN HAREN–that’s who we should get and they would love to have local ASU product Brett Wallace–Haren is less expensive and signed through 2013–so WHAT ARE YOU THINKING HERE?
The Cards have two aces now, Wainwright and Carpenter. I don’t see them picking up a 3rd. Only the Yanks can afford 3 aces.
I don’t care if they have to give up Wallace, Duncan, Thurston, Stankonia, Wellemeyer and Thompson, they just need to get this done. You would have 2 legitimate Cy Young candidates on the staff, and let’s face it, this team doesn’t really have a #4 or #5 starter that is legit.
This would help atone for the decidedly average (even before he got hurt)Derosa trade.
Re-signing him is an issues for 2 years from now. If he goes, he goes, but at least #5 can take notice of the fact that the front office was willing to go out and get a big gun to help the team win NOW. Let’s worry about ‘09 before ‘11.
This is certainly a fun item to read about and discuss, but let’s face it. Halladay ain’t coming here. Bernie, your point about this going against everything we’ve been told by DeWitt and Lunhow is right-on. They’re not going to deal the top 3 or 4 prospects to get a trade like this done. Believe me, I am a huge Halladay fan and would love to see him in St. Louis, but this doesn’t seem realistic at all.
Also, I would be very curious where the 4-8 weeks on DeRo is coming from. I read on this very website that he should be available right after the break. Can we get some real information on DeRosa’s status please???
Don’t get rid of Brett Wallace. The Cards will need him to play the only position he can, first base after they don’t pay Albert.
If the Cards can turn Brett Wallace, Pete Kozma, and pretty much ANY two other prospects in their system into Roy Halladay they’d be crazy not to do it. We all saw the impact Sabathia had on this division last year. And unlike Milwaukee last season we would have three legit #1s going in the first three games of any playoff series… and a closer who’s having a career season. This deal is very unlikely to happen, but give me Roy Halladay over ANY other player likely to be available this season.
And oh yeah, if you look beyond the records, Joel Piniero, not Kyle Lohse, has been the Cardinals’ third best starter this season. You can make a case for him being as good as Wainwright this season.
The Cards have allowed fewer runs than all but 4 teams in the majors this season, even with Wainwright’s early struggles, Wellemeyer’s issues, and Piniero’s uncertainty. They need another bat, not another arm.
While I would love to get Halladay I agree with Bernie that we need another bat more than anything. Our money should be spent on signing Albert to a long term deal.
After living through the Mulder era, I’d like to think the FO has learned to be more cautious when considering such a huge investment. For starters (no pun intended) what about the June 12th start Halladay had against the Marlins, (3 inn. 5 hits 41 pitch outing) and then didn’t start till June 29th. And in his own words ” Just out of nowhere I felt a pinch” after one warmup toss and left the game against the Marlins. Since then his last two starts he has looked suspect. 13 inn. 14 hits 4 hrs and 7 earned runs,…get a Hitter let this Halladay pass.
Hi Bernie
I give this about a 1% chance of happening. The Fo won’t give up 4 prospects for a 32 year old Halliday through 2010, and rightly so. I would be afraid of his arm going on the fritz since he’s pitched almost 2000 innings. He’s been arguably the best starter since 2002, but will likely be on the decline if signed to an entension. This certainly proves the FO naysayers wrong (i.e. - “DeWallet”), even though they’ll probably just ignorantly claim that the club through in our hat into the miz to hush the critics.
If the Blue Jays are in “seller’s mode”, would 2B Aaron Hill be available? I would take him over Halladay right now (a deal that would bring both of them would be ideal). He has hit 20 HRs, is batting right at .300, hits both lefties and righties about the same, and is 27 years old. This would allow Skip to be moved back into the OF. I wouldn’t want to give up Wallace in the deal, but I would think giving up any other 4-5 propects to bring in BOTH Halladay & Hill would put the Cardinals over the top and make the top World Series contenders.
dream on not happening
If the object is to win right now, how about this? Pujols and Ankiel for Halladay, Lyle Overbay and Vernon Wells.
Albert might welcome the chance to become the all-time greatest player in Canada, and the Cards’ rotation becomes suddenly dominant in the NL.
If the Birds are serious about looking for a pitcher/lefty I’d shop at the Nationals store and look at John Lannan, ground ball type (Duncan would be pleased) young and makes little $$$ (FO would love that) and probably would go for alot less than a Halladay. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but a Dunn/Lannan deal serves both masters (pitching/hitting) and I doubt they would have to fork over alot to get both.
Like I emailed Bernie over the weekend, the pitcher to go after is Haren……..the Diamondbacks are woefully out of the NLW Division race and Haren would come with a lot less financial baggage as a Halladay.
Cubs lost Dempster and now maybe Soto to injuries recently…..is this entire NLC Division cursed this year, or what?
I would rather have Haren than Halladay and would give up anyone not named Pujols
Having Halladay would make a great rotation as long as the Cards don’t give up tooo much now and in the future. Keep enough to resign Albert or the headshed will be ridden out of town on a rail after being tarred and feathered.
Bernie,
IF The Cards have Carp, Wainright, and Loshe, do they need another 20 game winner? Not for prospects. They should pick up a 12 - 15 game winner and not give away the team.
As much as acquiring Halladay is fun to dream about, I agree it’s just not realistic. I wouldn’t like any trade that could potentially interfere with having the dough to re-sign Pujols or that takes Brett Wallace. If the guy was one of the young studs like Danny Haren or Tim Lincecum, then the idea of trading Wallace becomes much more palatable. Agree with you 100%, Bernie. Don’t see the Cardinals having the horses to make that trade and even if they did, it would be too costly, both in prospects and dollars for a guy who would be getting up in years when considered within the framework of a contract extension.
We don’t need Halladay. He will cost way to much. If we are talking big bucks give it to AP and go get a right hand bat.
The Cardinals are rumored to have “serious interest” in a player? They always seem to have “serious interest” in every player that becomes available.
This is a good topic for a nice piece by Bernie, but no way will the Cardinals make this deal. It goes totally against the new organizational philosophy to build from within. There is too many good prospects that would need to be traded to make this deal a reality. It won’t happen.
I agree Bernie. I would loooove to see Halladay in a Cards uni, but I would rather see a big ole bat right next to Pujols, especially with Rasmus hitting the way he has been and Derosa coming back sometime after the All-Star break. We need a consistent 5-6 RPG. I believe that our pitching is good enough that if the lineup can do that, they will win 7 out of 10 the rest of the year. That’s hopeful, but if the opposition has to pitch to Albert in the second half, it’s definitely feasible.
Bernie:
I think if the Cardinals can get Halliday for Wallace and Kozma, and a couple of others, then I think they have to certainly try. I try to temper my desires with the fact that the Cardinals leadership knows vastly more than I do. It doesn’t take a Tony LaRussa to figure out that good pitching means good teams. I remember Carlton and Gibson on the same team, with a guy like Mike Torrez. They won games. Age is a factor, but a new four-year contact should make Halliday happy, and the chance for winning in St. Louis. It doesn’t get any better than that. There’s no way to tell what National League hitters will do against Halliday, but I don’t think he would like Phillie or NYC that much. And he’s seen the wonderful support that Carpenter gets. So Billy, if you want 4 million fans, get Halliday, and hang the expense. You only need three great pitchers to win the World Series.
I went back, updated, and posted a couple of related links from NY Post baseball scribe Joel Sherman. But here they are:
http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/st/archives/2009/07/halladay_update.html
http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/st/archives/2009/07/halladay_update.html
-B
Agreed Bernie; We need another bat especially since DeRosa is apparently going to be out much longer than had recently been reported. Are there any good bat parts out there that could be reasonably requisitioned?
If this club hits, the pitching will be good enough to give us a good chance to win. I am miffed as to why the Cardinals would be a “serious” contender for Holiday if they knew they would be biting off more than they could or would want to chew. The Cards have charted a good course to get to there destination. Let’s hope they don’t spill their tobacco juice all over their good chart. The chart would be ruined if the names Wallace and Pujols were blotted out.
As long as we’re trying for the Bluejay’s ace, let’s go as well for their thirdbaseman who is batting over .325 and having a heck of a year. What’s that…oh yeah, TLR doesn’t like him
Bernie– you covered ALL the bases, (pun intended), on the reasons the Cardinals shouldn’t and won’t try to sigh Halladay..There are a lot of them…
Good job…
I agree with your conclusion that we need a heavy hitter, (as in bat), and my choice is Miguel Tejada. This would to be the last puzzle piece for the Cardinals to be highly competitive going into the second half of the season…
I’ll buy you lunch aND a few beers if the Cardinals traded for Halladay.. That’s after I get out of the Hospital from my heart attack!!!!
Dream for a second and let’s forget about it.
There’s a zero chance that it’ll happen.
Ridiculous to even discuss looking at a trade for a pitcher. I agree with everyone in favor of getting another bat!
P.S. Can we find a sucker or two to give us above average prospects for Duncan and Ankiel?
LaRussa thinks he’s smarter than anyone else, so he tries to turn a checker game into chess match. Why does he keep running these out there?
Joe Thurston - .219 & 1 HR (37 s.o. 202 ab)
Rick Ankiel - .222 & 5 HR (52 s.o. 212 ab)
Chris Duncan - .241 & 5 HR (61 s.o. 247 ab)
Todd Wellemeyer - 7-7 & 5.36 ERA (5 quality starts)
Wouldn’t it be great to have LaRussa’s old doghouse crew
Scott Rolen - .325 & 6 HR (32 s.o. 279 ab)
Adam Kennedy - .295 & 6 HR (32 s.o. 220 ab)
Jason Marquis - 11-5 & 3.61 ERA (12 quality starts)
Also let Ryan Ludwick & Colby Rasmus play, instead of them getting a couple hits and then ride the bench the next game. Ludwick didn’t set every other game last year.
I would have no problems with the Cards trading Kozma for a guy like Halladay. I think that Brendan Ryan deserves the SS job. He is batting close to .300, and while he plays a little out of control sometimes, He is a very good defender. HE has great enthusiasm too. He reminds me of Eckstein with a good arm. I would not trade Wallace, because we have an obvious need for 3B. Motte and Rasmus should obviously be off limits too. With the Greene, Glaus, Ankiel, etc. money off the books next year, I would think Halladay’s contract would be doable. I know we need offense, but trotting out 2 Cy Young winners (Carp and Halladay), a healthy Lohse, and one of the great young pitchers in the game in Wainwright (when he is on he IS a top pitcher) would make our need for offense much less glaring, in my opinion. If Halladay is healthy (as far as i know he has never had a significant injury, i could be wrong so if I am feel free to tell me) I would definitely make this trade.
As for the ones thinking that getting MORE great pitching is a stupid idea, when has a team ever had too much pitching??? Do you really think that Wellemeyer will rebound or that Piniero will keep it up? If by some chance they do, they are still not even close to the same level as a Halladay. I am not saying the Cards have to go get Halladay, but to say that adding the best starting pitcher in baseball is a stupid idea is simply moronic. Also, I haven’t heard of a true slugger being available (you will NEVER convince me that Miguel Tejada is still a true impact bat) so i would think that if you can’t find someone who will help you score a bunch more runs, than getting a guy will will prevent the other team from scoring would be a good idea.
I’d certainly explore the Halladay situation, I personally see no problem with offering Wallace as part of a deal. They guy is probably better suited to being an AL DH anyway, yeah he looks like he probably is the real deal as a hitter, but you can’t get something for nothing. Having Carp, Halladay, Wainwright and Lohse wouldn’t be a bad 4 to throw out there for the next couple of years. You win with pitching, you really can’t have too much. Rasmus would be off limits. All that said, I don’t see MO and DeWitt pulling the trigger. Keep that powder dry baby.
Are the Blue Jays on the record stating they want Pete Kozma? Last time I checked, he was struggling offensively in the minors, and I’m sure the Blue Jays scouts are aware of that too. If he’s 3+ years away from a shot at the majors, that sounds pretty far off to me; Toronto may want someone who’s closer to major league ready. So let’s make sure we’re not overestimating Kozma’s trade value…it’s very likely Toronto may not want him after all. To give up a guy like Halladay, I suspect the discussions are going to start with both Wallace and Rasmus, and would also include a top pitching prospect. Toronto will want the best we have under 25 years old, and I believe that price is much too high!
Good stuff Bernie, thanks for the link on Sherman’s take. His view on the cap relief for the Cards makes a lot of sense. If the Cards can do it, why not? It is a gamble, but a 4 yr contract that takes him to 36 might not be bad. It is a gamble. But, if you did put him on this team, the Cards conceivably could be dynamite in late September. A lot of it is wishful thinking, but say Glaus gets healthy, DeRosa makes it back, you could put Schumaker back in the outfield. I mean I know a lot of it is wishful thinking, but the possibility exists. That team in October could roll. Have a good Friday.