Good day ..

Jordan Bastian, who covers the Toronto Blue Jays for MLB.com, reports that the Cardinals are among six teams that have expressed “serious” interest in trading for Roy Halladay, the Jays’ ace starter.

The other five are the Yankees, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers and Angels. Based on other media reports today I would add the Red Sox and Phillies to the list to make it eight teams who have interest in Halladay.

Let’s take a look…

The Pitcher: Halladay may be the best starter in baseball. He’s 141-68 with a 3.47 ERA and has a Cy Young in his career, and that’s with pitching all of those games against the powerful lineups from the Yankees and Red Sox. This season Halladay is 10-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He’s sensational. And he’s a dedicated, team-oriented star. There’s no diva in this guy’s personality. In many ways, Halladay is just like his close buddy, Cardinals’ ace Chris Carpenter. A Cardinals rotation led by Halladay, Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse would be scary.

The Reason for a Trade: Finances. Halladay is 32; he’s signed through next season. He likes Toronto, and is said to be a loyal guy, and even has a no-trade clause. But Halladay has never competed in the postseason and it’s something he probably wants to do. And getting there with the Blue Jays will be difficult because they play in the AL East. And the franchise is apparently is having issues that warrant a reduction in payroll, so that rules out giving Halladay a long-term contract extension for CC Sabathia money ( 7 years, $161 million) or even A.J. Burnett money (5 years, $82 million.) 

The Blue Jays owe underachievers Vernon Wells $99 million, and Alex Rios $60 million in long-term contracts. Scott Rolen is owed $11 million in 2010. (Update) the Blue Jays released reliever B.J. Ryan on Wednesday and will now eat the entire $15 million sum left on his contract. And Lyle Overbay is a $7 million player next season.

Halladay is making $14.75 million this season, and around half of that is due for the rest of the season. His salary for next season is $15.75 million.

That isn’t bad if a team just wants to keep him through 2010.

If the goal is to slash payroll, Halladay is by far the most marketable big-dollar player on the Toronto roster.

What the Jays Want: Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi is said to be seeking a trade that would bring several high-end prospects in return. Given the financial restraints of many clubs, prospects are the gold pieces in today’s baseball economy. Most teams want to collect as many as possible. So if you’re going to give up a slew of legit prospects for Halladay, you can’t do it without signing him to a long-term contract extension. Wiping out your farm system to rent him for a year and a half doesn’t make a lot of sense. And even if you do give Halladay a Sabathia or Burnett contract, you’ll be committing to paying him a ton of guaranteed dollars into his late 30s. Will he be the same pitcher in a few years? Will Halladay break down? After giving Carpenter a 5-yr, $63.5 million deal in Dec. 2006, the Cardinals were burned when Carpenter’s elbow went bad. He pitched 21.1 innings over the next two seasons, 2007-2008. Pitchers are risky business.

If no team is willing to give up the truck load of prospects, perhaps the Jays will feel pressure to dump payroll, which would lead them to back off their demands and just take the best offer on the table at the July 31 trade deadline.

Are the Cardinals a Fit? Doubtful. They just don’t have an abundance of elite prospects. But Erik Manning of FutureRedbirds.net told me that the Blue Jays showed a lot of pre-draft interest in Brett Wallace and Pete Kozma, two prospects that landed in the St. Louis organization as first-round picks. Would Wallace and Kozma be enough to get it done? I doubt it. But what if the Cardinals threw in two other high-level prospects? Then things would get interesting. But you’d also be stripping away your farm system, and that goes against everything we’ve been told by owner Bill DeWitt and VP of Player Development Jeff Luhnow. These guys aren’t going to give away the farm for a short-term rental.

And even if DeWitt wanted to take the leap, is he willing to pay up to keep Halladay in a St. Louis uniform for the next eight or nine seasons? The Cardinals already have 50 million in guaranteed payroll commitments in 2010, and that doesn’t include a couple of arbitration cases (Skip Schumaker most notably). If you add Halladay’s salary to the 2010 team, you’d be up to about $65 million. And you’d be paying around $55 million to four players – Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse and Halladay. The dollars given to four players would eat up more than half the payroll.

It’s largely the same situation in 2011; the Cardinals have $54 million payroll dollars on the books. And Pujols contract expires after 2011. He’s going to break the bank if he stays and if the Cardinals are willing to pay him. Even with Carpenter’s contract up after 2011, how could the Cardinals afford to invest between $40 million and $50 million in two Thirtysomething players, Pujols and Halladay? I just don’t see the Cardinals as a realistic fit in the Halladay sweepstakes.

The only way this could change is if Toronto doesn’t receive the kind of trade offers it wants, and lowers the exchange rate for Halladay. That would make a rental more appealing — though it would still cost the Cardinals a helluva lot more than, say, giving up Chris Perez for Mark DeRosa.

But understand that a drop in Toronto’s demands would also entice more trade partners to the table, and they’d surely be aggressive. The Cardinals would not be alone. But if the price goes lower than expected, the Cardinals would have a chance to pull it off … even if Holladay is a rental for a year and a half. I remain skeptical, however.

If the Cardinals want starting pitching, a more realistic option may be one of the Arizona properties, Jon Garland or Doug Davis.

Personally, I still believe the Cardinals need another bat more than anything — especially with Mark DeRosa likely being on the DL for the next four to eight weeks.

Update: Here’s some info from New York Post baseball columnist Joel Sherman.

The first link contains a rough outline of a trade with Toronto based on Sherman’s conversation with the Toronto GM.    

This link has Sherman’s take on why the Cardinals may be able to measure up as we assess contenders for Halladay.

Thanks for reading…

-Bernie