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08.11.2009 10:22 am

Aug. 11: Blake Hawksworth’s Increasing Value

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Some quick takes for you:

1. Blake Hawksworth can be a Cardinals VIP:  When manager Tony La Russa said Hawksworth is more valuable to the team in relief than he would be as a fifth starter, my initial reaction was a rolling of the eyes. But actually, TLR is onto something here. Hawksworth was strong again in Monday night’s 4-1 win over the Reds, pitching two scoreless innings to take the game from starter Kyle Lohse to closer Ryan Franklin. By now, when Hawksworth has a successsful relief stint, we shouldn’t be surprised. In his last 12 appearances, Hawksworth has an ERA of 0.92. He’s allowed runs in 1 of the 12 outings.  He has a low walk rate. His baserunners-allowed rate over that time is second-best in the bullpen to LHP Trevor Miller

* In today’s Bird Land, Derrick Goold examines the reason behind Hawksworth’s improvement.

 Skeptics would point out two things: Hawksworth doesn’t miss many bats; his strikeout rate is low. And his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) over the stretch is 3.14, which means the Cardinals are playing exceptional defense behind him. Some would cite this and consider Hawksworth “lucky.” All I know is this: the Cardinals needed another RH reliever to get outs in the late innings, and Hawksworth has been doing it. This is important, considering the trade that took Chris Perez out of the bullpen, and the erratic performances of rookie Jason Motte. In 27 games since June 2, Motte has allowed 37 runners in 18.2 IP, he’s given up 8 HRs, hitters are batting .329 against him, and his ERA is 8.68. Motte will miss bats. He’ll pile up the strikeouts. But who do you trust more these days, Hawksworth or Motte? 

Given The Hawk’s emergence and the potential liability of the RH setup relief, one can easily conclude that he’s more valuable right now in the bullpen as opposed to making a handful of starts the rest of the way.

2. Good move by Scott Rolen: Nice gesture by the former Cardinals 3B (now Red) to pop into La Russa’s office to say hello before Monday’s game. It was a way to ease the lingering tension between them. (Not that they’ll be buddies.) It was a way to prevent an outbreak of more anger from either side. It was a way to prevent the rather silly episode we saw between TLR and Jim Edmonds last season when Edmonds returned to Busch Stadium in a Cubs uniform. It was also a smart play by Rolen; by making the first move, he was assured diplomatic immunity. That way if La Russa popped off or said anything unkind, La Russa would come across as the bad guy. I don’t take sides in this one. Rolen has always had an anti-authority streak; La Russa is a controlling personality. Two strong-willed, stubborn individuals don’t get along. It happens.  Let’s move on.

3. Important start for Mitchell Boggs: With Todd Wellemeyer’s elbow “flaring up” Boggs gets the start against the Reds tonight. Boggs needs to keep the team’s momentum going. He also needs to strengthen his position with La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, who are slow to buy into Boggs as the team’s 5th starter. We have written frequently about Boggs’ poor efficiency and his inability (so far) to pitch deep into games at the big-league level. But here’s a question: if you don’t have an ideal 5th starter, then what should you look for? I’d be looking for a guy who gives his team a legit chance to win every time he pitches. And Boggs has absolutely done that in his five starts this season. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of his five starts. In his worst start, against Washington, Boggs gave up 4 runs in 6 innings, but the Cardinals trailed only 4-3, and won it 9-4. Boggs held it together and kept the game close until his teammates could rally. Yes, he’s benefited from good run support: with a 5.33 RSA in his five starts. But let’s not get carried away. In all five of Boggs’ starts, the games were close when he got taken out, and the Cardinals had no more than 4 runs on the board at the time of his departure. It’s not as if he was staked to a 7-0 lead in his five starts. He wasn’t. Boggs battles. He’s made tough pitches when he’s had to. He’s given his team a chance to prevail in each start. In his five starts Boggs has an ERA of 3.20 and the Cardinals have a record of 5-0. For a 5th starter, that’s not bad. It’s actually pretty good.

* Boggs will be opposed tonight by RHP Justin Lehr. I mentioned this recently, but will expand on the point: Lehr has the profile of a pitcher who can give the Cardinals a hard time. He’s only been in two games this season, so there isn’t much video of him. He isn’t a hard thrower; last week when Lehr beat the Cubs he reached no higher than 87 mph on the gun. Here’s the scouting report: Against RH hitters, Lehr throws a lot of cut fastballs and sliders and changes speeds. Against LH hitters, he goes with more split-fingered fastballs, and will use the curve. He rarely uses the curve against RH and doesn’t throw many sliders to LH.

* Impressive performance by Kyle Lohse on Monday night; now he must establish consistency. If the Cardinals get their top four starters locked in, watch out. The Cubs have two starters on the DL (Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly) and fifth starter Tom Gorzelanny had to leave Monday’s game after being drilled on the foot by a batted ball at Colorado. There’s also some potentially troubling news on the North Side regarding 3B Aramis Ramirez, who continues to struggle with a sore shoulder.

4. Rams Notes: Uh-oh; CB Tye Hill’s knee is an issue. He had it taped up during Tuesday morning’s practice, limped off, and had it iced down. There’s fluid buildup. Extent of the injury is otherwise unknown… Rookie OT Jason Smith, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 draft, is going through that stretch of camp where he’s confused and getting used up by the team’s veteran pass rushers. It’s part of the normal development of a rookie OT … on the defensive side, it’s obvious that the Rams don’t have enough at defensive tackle. Underachieving former No. 1 draft pick Adam Carriker is hurt (ankle), Clifton Ryan hasn’t had a strong camp, and Hollis Thomas is working his way into shape. Rookie draft pick Darell Scott has made a positive impression … Second-year DE Chris Long looks so more advanced from a year ago… more on the loss of Donnie Avery to a fractured foot: GM Billy Devaney thinks there’s a reasonable chance of Avery being back by the regular-season opener. That would be a pleasant surprise for the Rams. But with or without Avery, the Rams need other receivers to emerge. Last season in the final nine games when Avery the rookie encountered a lot of press coverage, and double coverage, he averaged only 10 yards a catch and caught only one pass that went for 25 yards+. He wasn’t a game-changer. And that’s what concerns me: with or without Avery, the Rams don’t have a WR who can shake up a defense…. tight end Billy Bajema was a good signing; he’s a nasty, physical blocker … looking forward to seeing what Kenneth Darby can do in the preseason games as the Rams give him a clear opportunity to win the No. 2 RB gig. Darby can catch passes and that’s a plus in the West Coast offense… the overall vibe at rookie head coach Steve Spagnuolo’s camp is positive. I’ve been in a lot of NFL camps and you can usually tell, right away, if a team is bonding, and if they’re going at it the right way. Roster / talent issues aside, the attitude is good.

5. Weird Note of the Day: baseball scribe Gerry Fraley informs us that former Cardinal Scott Spiezio has signed to play baseball with the Orange County Flyers of the Independent Golden Baseball League. The team is managed by Phil Nevin and the roster includes former big-leaguers Robert Fick, Damian Jackson and Ben Johnson.

-B

24 comments

Comments are closed.

Bernie,

Why can’t you just get along with the SABR crowd instead of misrepresenting their arguments? Yes strike outs are important, but there are other facets. Most stats people believe a pitcher can control 3 things: walks, strikeouts, and HRs. Every other batted ball is pretty much left up to chance. The reason Motte has failed is his numbers are poor all around. Even is strike out numbers aren’t that impressive for a hard throwing reliever. He’s given up 1.8 HR/9 7.7 K/9 4.1 BB/9. While Hawk has had less strikeouts, he’s avoided the long ball and walks very well (0.8 HR/9 and 1.7 BB/9). However, it is reasonable to believe he’s been lucky. His .243 BABIP is quite low, especially compared to Motte’s .295.

The point is there are several facets those nasty “stats bloggers” use to evaluate pitchers and these are mentioned in depth in their posts. When you attempt to discredit them by implying they only are looking at K’s you do yourself a discredit as a journalist. Don’t be like Buzz Bissinger. Us stat bloggers and you journalists can easily coexist.

— Ankiel84
11:08 am August 11th, 2009

Really not sure why you’re reacting so hysterically to … well, nothing. I appreciate very much the SABR crowd. I am a SABR member, for gosh sake. I appreciate opinions. I love research. I use the same data that they use. It’s not that hard. I learn from those guys all of the time. I’ve also been “co existing” for a long time. But why in the heck am I obligated to endorse every theory that they offer? I think the “luck” factor can be overstated. Sorry. That’s all. You make good pitches, usually good things will happen. You make good pitches with a strong defense behind you? I see no reason to discredit that, especially when the boss (the pitching coach) wants ground balls. And the BA against him with BIP is .243… so what? That’s a little low, but not crazily so. Motte has been bad because he’s pitched poorly. It isn’t luck. Relax, pal. Different opinions make the world go ’round. I wasn’t attacking anyone.

-B

— Bernie Miklasz
11:20 am August 11th, 2009

If the Reds pitching coach and catcher care for this game, I would mix it up and approach the Cardinal hitters the other way. On occasion, USE the curve against RH’s and throw some sliders to LH’s. If so, I have a feeling Lehr will be confusing them for the most part.

I agree. This game is the one game against the Reds where the Cards are likely due for a loss. A positive is that Boggs provides a better chance of keeping the Cards close as opposed to Wellemeyer.

— FpmUrge
11:35 am August 11th, 2009

I didn’t say the Cardinals were due for a loss. My point is that the Reds’ pitcher has the profile of a guy who can be a tough read for Cardinals hitters.

-B

— Bernie Miklasz
11:42 am August 11th, 2009

Bernie, my bad. I agree on the part of the unfamiliarity of Lehr. My prediction is because of that, they are due for a loss since we’ve seen this scenario played out before.

— FpmUrge
11:53 am August 11th, 2009

Pitching rules the baseball world and it would appear Tony has found his Kinney/Wainwright of 06 in Hawksworth and Boggs. I doubt they will be as big as a factor but it is a start. If they can let Motte just be a RH specialist for 1-2 outs now and Mac & Hawk do the long work they should be fine. Lohse’s start yesterday had to be like manna from heaven to the coaching staff.

Nice piece Bernie,…off to the horse races!

— James K
11:55 am August 11th, 2009

Sorry if I misunderstood you then Bernie. I just sense a general animosity towards to stat crowd in some of your articles. If that wasn’t your intent, my mistake. Perhaps you’re right that the luck thing is overstated but there is a lot to it. A good portion of base hits in general are not hard hit balls and there seems to be little known correlation between a pitcher’s ability and their BABIP. Several Hall of Fame pitchers had supposedly off years despite maintaining the same walk, HR, and K rates. The only difference was that many balls found holes. In Hawk’s case, the luck factor could be huge given that he has barely thrown 20 innings this year. Same with Boggs. Boggs has not really pitched all that much better than Wellemeyer. His WHIP is an atrocious 1.829 (Welle is 1.749). However, due to luck mainly he has had more success because of a smaller sample. Over a whole season, there’s no way a pitcher with a WHIP that high would have an ERA much under 5. It’s not some intangible, Ecksteinian grit factor with Boggs that has him with an ERA under 4 and a 1-0 record. It’s that he’s gotten lucky and managed to avoid the damage.

— Ankiel84
12:22 pm August 11th, 2009

I believe the Cards success tonight depends upon which offense show up - the wait for the ball to get in deep and take it to the opposite field offense or the lunge and pull everything for a home run offense. If it is the latter, then a soft throwing pitcher with movement likely will frustrate the home team.

One of the announcers mentioned several days ago that McRae is not a fan of going to the opposite field. I do not understand that position. Going to right helped AP out of his slump, Going to right made Lugo a positive contributor. Holiday, DeRosa, Ludwick, Ankiel, and Greene all contributed to wins going to the opposite field. Too bad little Dunc didn’t try it more.

— jeffblue
12:33 pm August 11th, 2009

I’ve always thought of Bernie as being friendly to the stat approach, I mean how many other mainstream writers do you know that put FIP, or quote baseball prospectus consistently in their writing? And I have to agree with Bernie that you don’t have to agree with all the theories put out there but at least be willing to listen, too many writers (not Bernie) think they knew all they ever needed to know about baseball when they were five or given their first beat assignment (can you imagine a doctor that refuses to learn anything more about his profession after getting out of medical school?)

Also Bernie, if you get a chance to go to the series up in Milwaukee, you should look for a bar called fourth base right by the stadium, they used to have a bottle of Champagne sitting in a glass case that was signed by Rolen and Tony LaRussa in 2004…signs of a friendlier time between those two I guess. (if you go, order a Porterhouse, very good meal)

— cardsfanboy
12:38 pm August 11th, 2009

Bernie, I want to thank you for your use of Sabr metric, I have learned alot by reading your columns where I think the stat guys fail is in a belief that all batted balls are equal. Is it luck to get a ground ball out if you were trying to get a ground ball? The most interesting fact and i would love for do a column or blog on this..is that since we got Holliday and lugo we have’t lost to lefthanded starter and three all star closers have blown saves against us.

— alabill
1:00 pm August 11th, 2009

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