Sept. 29: Rams Draft “Do Over”
Hello … let’s get started.
1. Rams 2008 Draft: Here we go again… I think Rams fans had high hopes for the 2008 draft. Though GM Jay Zygmunt and head coach Scott Linehan were still very much in the middle of things, the Rams had brought in Billy Devaney as a personnel guy, and he certainly had influence in the draft. How much is uncertain. It would be wrong to say 2008 was Devaney’s Draft, but it’s less than honest to try and portray it as a Zygmunt-Linehan Draft in an effort to remove Devaney from responsibility. There was also the John Shaw factor; you never quite know what’s going on behind the scenes at Rams Park. Anyway…
The Rams chose DE Chris Long with the 2nd overall pick. In the second round, they went with Donnie Avery, making him the first receiver taken in the ‘08 draft. In the third round, they drafted tackle-guard John Greco. All three players are trying to establish their careers, and after 19 games it’s premature to pass conclusive judgment. But unless you’re completely in the tank for the Rams, and unwilling or incapable of being objective, you’d have to admit that the team isn’t receiving the desired or necessary impact from those premium picks. Though he plays a lot, Long doesn’t start. He’s solid against the run. He isn’t much of a factor in the pass rush. Avery got off to a fast start last season, but over his last 12 games he’s averaging only 9.3 yards per catch, and has had only one play of 25+ yards. This season Avery is averaging 6.2 yards per catch, and has struggled to hold onto the football. And Greco can’t get onto the field. He’s injured now, and as a Ram he’s appeared in 10 games, starting one.
This is disturbing. The Rams have lost 13 consecutive games and are 5-30 since the start of the 2007 season. They had three of the first 65 picks of the 2008 draft, which presented an opportunity to bring in three instant-impact players. But Long, Avery and Greco aren’t making a difference. And when you have a roster that’s so bad and devoid of premium talent, you simply can’t afford to strike out on your top picks. Hideous drafts (going back to 2000) were the root cause of the Rams downfall.
What if things had gone differently? What if the Rams could turn back the clock and have a 2008 Draft Do Over? It’s easy to second-guess; everyone is an expert AFTER the fact. But let’s take a peek at who the Rams COULD have drafted instead, in each of the first three rounds:
1st Round: QB Matt Ryan instead of Long. Ryan has been a transformative player for the Falcons, who had bottomed out after the Michael Vick imbroglio. Ryan is 13-6 as a starter and led the Falcons to the playoffs last season.
2nd Round: WR DeSean Jackson instead of Avery. Jackson became an immediate star for Philadelphia. In 19 games he’s caught 74 passes for 1,171 yards and 4 TDs. He’s rushed 22 times for 144 yards and a TD. He’s returned 2 punts for touchdowns, and is averaging 22 yards per PR early this season.
3rd Round: Any number of guys instead of Greco. How about a strong No. 2 RB? Most teams have them. The Rams could have taken Steve Slaton, who went to Houston later in the round. He has 1,409 yards rushing and 59 catches so far in his career. Can you imagine the fun the Rams could be having with different formations that put Steven Jackson and Slaton on the field at the same time? Or, how about another wide receiver? The Rams had already dumped Isaac Bruce and would soon part ways with Torry Holt. So they could have hit the WR position hard in the draft. One guy on the board in the third round was Mario Manningham, who has 17 catches for 163 yards and two TDS for the NY Giants this season. (The Rams and other teams were concerned about Manningham’s attitude and maturity, but he’s been a good citizen fo far in NY.) Andre Caldwell looks like he’ll be a good receiver for Cincinnati. Several defensive linemen went later in the third round, and while none are stars, they’ve all become good, solid rotation guys. There’s DE Kendall Langford (Miami) and DTs Pat Sims (Cincinnati), Andre Fluellen (Detroit) and Marcus Harrison (Chicago).
Again, it’s easy to second-guess now… but the issue itself is certainly relevant. The Rams should be getting more than they are from the first three rounds of the ‘08 draft. Had they discovered gold, they’d be further along in their rebuilding. At least that’s the way it looks right now. Perhaps a year from now, Long and Avery will be elite players and Greco will be starting on the O-line. We’ll see.
2. Kyle Boller, Road Warrior? Maybe not. What can we expect from Boller at QB on Sunday in San Francisco? Well, he’s been inconsistent in his career. Great plays, bad plays. Good throws, wild throws. His ability to take off and run will certainly be a boost. But here’s one question I have about Boller, and it’s a holdover from his days in Baltimore: can he play well on the road? From 2003-2007, there was a substantial disparity in Boller’s home/road performances. I didn’t see all of the games, so I’m unaware of the specifics. But here are the splits:
Home: 15-7 record as a starter, 59% completions, 6.19 YPA, 23 TD, 16 INT, 78.7 rating.
Road: 5-15 record as a starter, 54% completions, 5.49 YPA, 17 TD, 24 INT, 63.2 rating.
The Ravens lost the last 10 road games started by Boller, and in those contests he threw 8 TDs with 14 INTs and had a passer rating of 59.4. Boller hasn’t won a road game as a starter since Nov. 14, 2004 at the NY Jets.
Hey, but this a new beginning, right?
3. John Smoltz: Since beginning his Cardinals career on Aug. 23, Smoltz has been stingy in allowing runners to reach base. His rate of baserunners per nine innings (9.00) is 6th best among NL starters, and it is also lower than the BR/9 rates turned in over that time by Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro. Since Smoltz joined the rotation, here are the ERAs of the Cardinals’ starters: Wainwright 2.44, Carpenter 2.79, Smoltz 3.18, Joel Pineiro 3.57, Kyle Lohse 5.87. As far as OPS against since Aug. 23, Smoltz’s figure of .600 is excellent, and only a few points behind Carpenter (.591) and Wainwright (.597) The idea that Lohse could edge out Smoltz for the 4th spot in the postseason is simply preposterous, unless there’s an injury. And for those pushing for Smoltz to be a reliever/closer in the playoffs… in an emergency or a deciding-game situation, maybe. But the man is 42. He’s coming off shoulder surgery and a recent bout of tendinitis. He can’t be getting up and down in the bullpen all of the time, warming up. It’s probably a poor idea to work him on consecutive days. Smoltz is a Hall of Fame pitcher, a money pitcher, but he hasn’t been a reliever since 2004. Let’s be realistic here, OK? This isn’t a board game.
* One quickie note: the Cardinals will be running into some hot pitchers in Cincinnati. Homer Bailey faces Pineiro tonight, and since Aug. 23 Bailey is 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. On Wednesday it’s Smoltz against Bronson Arroyo; over his last 12 starts Arroyo has an outstanding ERA of 2.16. And on Thursday the Cardinals will pitch Carpenter against a no-name lefthander (uh-oh), Matt Maloney, who is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA over his last three starts.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
Bernie-excellent article as usual. Regarding the draft, I think you identified a huge problem that continues with the Rams. We had the number 2 pick in the whole nation. With that pick we should have a probowl caliber stud. We have Chris Long, who is barely adequate. We had the number 2 pick in the recent draft. Again, we should should have an immediate probowl impact player. We have a Smith? Have you seen this guy? I could name a number of offensive tackles who look way better than Smith. The future of this organization is in the draft. I dont see ANY improvement over the Klopfenstein-Byrd-Hill-Wroten-Leonard sort of selections. I am very disappointed at how woeful the drafting is.
And Avery is exactly what the draftniks said he was. If everyone else can see this, why can’t the Rams? We used a number 2 on him? I weep in frustration. All these poor seasons should be guaranteeing a solid foundation of superstar quality players via the draft. We are wasting a golden opportunity to remake this franchise
Funny, I seem to remember a certain columnist railing on Rams fans for being upset at the premature pick of Donnie Avery. In fact, said columnist even had the audacity to compare Avery to Sir Isaac Bruce.
Seems as if though said columnist will need to apologize to those fans for his bashing of their opinions, which turned out to be true (though, I wouldn’t hold your breath Avery detractors, you’ll have to get in line behind the Duncan-haters, still awaiting thier apology).
People like to rip John Shaw and criticize him, but supposedly he was in favor of drafting Matt Ryan. Shaw might be lacking football knowledge, but he knows business and he knows how to make a sale. At least he had the brains to figure out that it was time to draft a high profile QB in the first round. At least he had that vision. It still blows my mind that Devaney couldn’t figure this out. You have to think about the business side too and maintaining fans interest by having something to offer the fans. Even if a miracle happened and Bulger played over his head and the Rams wanted to stay with him, you could always use that draft pick as trade bait later. Devaney totally missed this…………Bernie, Bernie, Bernie…..insert 2 nasally honks………..Boller hasn’t even started yet and you’re already picking on him. I remember when we signed him, you thought it had an upside, former #1, 28 years old, played in a Ravens system noted for it’s offensive struggles over the years with Billick. You thought it was an interesting signing. And I agree. But in yesterdays article you dumped on the guy for his 2nd half struggles by saying - well, he is Kyle Boller. Hey, I was campaigning a year ago at this time for the Rams to use their first round pick for Stafford. This has been long overdue. But in the meantime, the Rams still need a veteran for next year, so why not give Boller a chance? I was hard on Bulger at the beginning of this year but you wanted to give Marc the benefit of the doubt the first couple games. Let’s give Boller the same respect. At least he’s got a personality on the field and we’ll see a Rams team with some fight. The road numbers are interesting so we’ll see, I admit, they aren’t too flattering. But lets give the guy a chance. I’m more pumped up about Boller than say someone like Sage Rosenfels who the Vikes almost tried to pass off as their starter this year. And you know when you look up Flacco’s numbers last year in Baltimore, he had 14 TD’s and 12 Int’s, which really falls in line with what Boller was producing over there. I’m not totally convinced this guys dog meat. Rams still have to draft a QB number 1 next year, but lets see if Boller can earn a job here next year. Thanks - Have a nice night!
Bernie….I really don’t believe any of you sports journalists completely knew who was accountable for the the Rams pathetic drafts of the last 8 or 9 years….all the way back to the Martz era. Look at how few of those guys are with the team or even in the league. I give Devaney a pass for now. Although the Rams took Chris Long at number 2….had they not, I guarantee that he would have been gone in the next 4 or 5 selections. Taxpayer seems to think that a pick that high is a bust unless he comes in and plays at a pro bowl caliber from day 1. That’s baloney. Some positions like DE and OT require a player to develop new skills. And, that may take 1-2 years. Not every great college player steps in to the NFL and kicks tail immediately. Also, and folks seem to forget this….it’s a team game. A good player can struggle when the talent around him is mediocre or worse. People need to comprehend that the Rams are devoid of talent at 75% of the positions. It’s going to take a couple of very successful drafts, good FA signigs, luck, and more cap space. Next year will be different with the money as I understand it. Currently, they have so little cap room, they can’t even get a bonafide WR. Devaney nailed a good FA with Robinson….and he goes down on Sunday. Maybe Ruvell Martin can step in? I’ll be astounded if Jackson has many 100 yard games this year. Most defenses know that they can focus on stopping him and leave their cornerbacks one-on-one with the Rams WRs. The most productive receiver on Sunday was Daniel Fells…a TE. I don’t think too many teams are fearful that Fells will burn them on a given week.
God Bless Chris Long he seems like a nice young man. But this is a business
and he is in way over his head. As the second overall pick as a D.E. you
expect sacks and some type of impact. He should not be on the field period.
This years second overall pick (Smith) deserves some time to get healthy
then we can see if he can play but poor Chris Long is below ordinary!!
It is unfair to cherry pick players that were still available in a round and think that the Rams would have selected them. There was no way the Rams were going to pick a QB in the first round in 2008 or when Cutler came out. What would be interesting is to see what players were selected immediately after the Rams’ selections and evaluate their individual progress. Does anyone have those selections?
I couldn’t agree more with your evaluation for the 08 Draft, Bernie. While ALL of those “what if” players would be upgrades over the current squad, Matt Ryan (a.k.a. “Matty Ice”) stands out the most. You have to think that no matter what Bulger does this year, we HAVE to draft a franchise QB, right? Look at the last two years now.
2008: Matt Ryan (ATL), Joe Flacco (BAL)
2009: Mark Sanchez (NYJ), Matt Stafford (DET)
I know it’s way early to talk about the 2009 bunch, but I’ve watched a Jets game and Sanchez is the real deal. We need a winner to lead this team out of the gutter.
imo, when given the opportunity, ram’s Mgmt went with low hanging fruit rather than spend the $$ for a more quality player. they gambled and lost for the fruit was as suspected-rotten to the core. really need a magician to make shine-ola out of the shxx that remains…your comments regarding the “4th” if NOT the “3rd” in the rotation, Bernie, i think are accurate. the AL umpires have a different perspective on the strike zone than the NL. i “think” that because of the expressed differences that ball players(pitchers and position players)have mentioned after changing leagues. Maybe Smoltz’s difficulty at Boston was “partially” the result of a different zone…
Very good article on the Rams. Let’s not give up on Chris Long too early now, I truely believe he will become a much better pass rusher, and will stay consistent with the run defense. Now Donnie Avery is a completely different story. I remember sitting at my draft party at my house and when we picked him everyone there was disgusted. We were praying that they would pick Desean Jackson, and of course the typical rams blow another second round pick. I’m not sure but I think our last 4 or 5 second rounders have been busts. Joe Klopfenstein, Brian Leonard, the list goes on and on. If we released Avery I guarantee you nobody in this league would pick him up. The guy is just terrible!!!!