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09.03.2009 11:06 am

Sept 3: Fresh Takes on Cardinals, Rams

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Good morning/afternoon…

1. My Wish List for Rams vs. the Chiefs: I want to see OT Jason Smith pancake a few Chiefs, and show improvement, and secure a starting job so he can avoid embarrassing the Rams. If the No. 2 overall pick can’t win a starting job on a mediocre offensive line for a team that’s gone 5-27 the last two years, then owner Chip Rosenbloom ought to be asking why he dished $33 million on guaranteed money for the guy… I want to see Rams DT Adam Carriker make some plays and justify his roster presence and playing time. I want to see these young corners (J. Wade, B. Fletcher, J. King) justify the donation of former No. 1 pick Tye Hill to ATL for a 7th-round draft choice. I realize Hill isn’t the second coming of Roger Wehrli, but is he really worse than the many inexperienced CBs on the roster? … I want to see Keith Null connect and be accurate and look confident so he can win the No. 3 QB job… even though he’s a Brewers fan, I want to see WR Derek Stanley step up and win a roster spot; he still has upside in his career, unlike some of the wideouts he’s competing against for a job … I want to see hothead Chiefs coach Todd Haley fire another assistant — any assistant will do — at halftime. How about Haley sacking offensive coordinator Chan Gailey after three preseason games? Wow. A Linny move, there.

2. Cardinals Need to get Ryan Ludwick Going: Heading into Thursday’s matinee against the pitching-impoverished Brewers, Ludwick was 3 for 5 in the series, which is a good sign. The addition of Matt Holliday has dramatically strengthened the middle of the STL lineup. But if Ludwick, who bats 5th, can get rolling the Cardinals will be even more formidable. SInce the All-Star break, Ludwick’s slugging percentage is only .372. He has but one homer since July 26. Since the break, seven Cardinals’ regulars (or semi-regulars) have a higher SLG than Ludwick: Holliday (.691), Albert Pujols (.573), Rick Ankiel (.489), Julio Lugo (.488), Mark DeRosa (.448), Skip Schumaker (.417) and Brendan Ryan (.400). Ludwick has done a decent job (.271 BA) with runners in scoring position (.271).

(BTW, only Pujols has more ABs than Ludwick for the Cardinals since the All-Star Break, though Holliday would be second in ABs had he arrived a week earlier.)

3. Difference Between Ludwick, Then & Now: Last season (37 homers, 113 RBIs) Ludwick murdered all kind of fastballs. Location didn’t matter. Not so, this season. According to data at STATS LLC, Ludwick is batting only .180 on outside fastballs. That’s glaring for this reason: in 2008, he hit .347 on fastballs away. And while last season Ludwick smoked low fastballs for a remarkable .472 batting average, this season his BA for low fastballs is .258.

4. Colby Rasmus, Blade Runner: The rookie CF usually reaches his target when he’s on the bases. I’m not talking about stolen bases; I’m talking about functional speed - being able to take an extra base a runner on balls in play. According to data at Bill James online, Rasmus is the Cardinals’ best runner this season with a net gain of +20. He’s gone from first to third on a single 50 percent of the time; scored on a single from second 89 percent of the time; and scored from first on a double 80 percent of the time. And the Raz speed also helps him avoid hitting into double plays; he’s hit into DPs only 5 percent of the time when faced with potential DP situations. According to the same data, Ludwick is the second-best runner at +14, and B. Ryan is third at +11.

5. Bernie Bytes: Allen Craig, the STL hitting prospect who doesn’t have a defensive position, is batting .402 with 18 HRs in 189 ABs in the second half of the season at Class AAA Memphis … Saturday at The Ed, how will a young Mizzou defense hold up to Juice Williams throwing to (big) Benn and that extraordinary ensemble of those gifted Illinois receivers? … on July 22 the Cardinals lost 4-3 in Houston, and with the win the Astros’ cut the Cardinals’ lead to one game. Six weeks later, the Astros trail the Cardinals by 15.5 in the NL Central standings. My gosh …. The new Forbes NFL Value Rankings are out, and the Rams are ranked 25th among 32 in the league with at an estimated franchise value of $913 million… new music that I shouldn’t like, but do: “Ursa Major,” the new one from Third Eye Blind. Hey, we’re all entitled to guilty pleasures in music … former Cardinal utility man Aaron Miles is batting only .176 / .218 / .236 for the Cubs and is 1 for 20 since returning from the DL on Aug. 5 … Sports Illustrated’s Peter King predicts a 5-11 record for the Rams; sounds about right.

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie

16 comments

Comments are closed.

How is Ludwick to get going with LaRussa benching him several times a week. Ludwick needs to be playing everyday, period. If LaRussa can’t figure that out then it’s time to get a new manager.

— Snag
12:16 pm September 3rd, 2009

Yeah, and while we’re replacing TLR, let’s also trade K. Greene, Glaus, Wellemeyer and Thurston for Lincecum.

— Gatormeier
12:41 pm September 3rd, 2009

is the jason smith scenario another indictment on the new ’spread offenses’ which are all the rage in college football??

thinkin all the previous high picks for OT’s
joe thomas/clady/jake long all came from traditional offenses…

i know he has the rigfht attitude to become a starter -just needs to polish his technique/stance/etc.

— polo
12:43 pm September 3rd, 2009

We’re on our way to our 8th Division Title since LaRussa took over 14 years ago. Yeah, we should get rid of him because Ludwick doesn’t play every single game.

— S.D.CardsFan
12:44 pm September 3rd, 2009

Yeah Snag, a new manager is needed because Ludwick isn’t playing everyday. Genius. Except, as Bernie pointed out in his forum (http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=656761&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=12), Ludwick has worse numbers than Ankiel since the AS Break (though he was wrong about Ludwick having just 1 HR since the AS Break, as he actually has three - July 21, July 25, August 4) to the tune of .264/.318/.361 w/ 3 HRs to Ankiel’s .277/.318/.489 with 5 HRs.

— KSM1
12:49 pm September 3rd, 2009

Hey, Snag et al
from the column you just read:
(BTW, only Pujols has more ABs than Ludwick for the Cardinals since the All-Star Break, though Holliday would be second in ABs had he arrived a week earlier.)

These TLR haters absolutely mystify me- who would you rather have managing the Cardinals? No, wait a minute, don’t tell me…the answer would blow my mind.

Speaking of which, I hope Bernie and company don’t read all these comments. The quality of the average response must have him wondering who the hell he is writing these for…

— LouisXIV
1:50 pm September 3rd, 2009

Let’s review the numbers.

Ludwick PAs, 2002 to 2005–540
Ludwick PAs, 2007 to 2009–1,216

So Ludwick has one manager to thank for his success–and his $4 MM paycheck, and that manager’s name is Tony La Russa.

Dave

— Sydney_Dave
2:04 pm September 3rd, 2009

Bernie…..gotta disagree with you re Jason Smith. It’s premature to rant about his shortcomings. He is making a big adjustment playing on the right side. And, typically, whether in practice or games, he’s playing against talent he rarely saw while playing at Baylor in the Big 12. He’s got all the tools. He has a great work ethic. He’ll get there. I realize there are guys like Jake Long and Joe Thomas who step right in and play at a Pro Bowl level. Maybe that goes with the territory of being a top selection. But, a lot of guys need some time to develop in the NFL….even for a year or so before they blossom. 3 or 4 pre-season games is hardly a sampling worthy of insinuating that he may be “embarrassing” the club. If we look up at the end of 2009 and Smith makes marginal progress, that’s another story.

— knuckles
5:38 pm September 3rd, 2009

sdcardsfan,ksm1,louisXIV,
LaRussa has been screwing with Ludwick since the start of the season. Do you not think that has anything to do with his performance this year? Like Ludwick said earlier this year, “what do I need to do to play everyday”? He bats .300 hits 30+ homers drives in 120 and he is sharing time with Chris Duncan and Rick A. You have to be kidding me!! You don’t see something wrong with that? I am and have always been a huge Cardinal fan but I’m not blind to LaRussa’s arrogance and insanity. You boys need to lay off the Cardinal/LaRussa KooKooAid.

— Snag
6:46 pm September 3rd, 2009

I don’t think you should feel guilty for liking Third Eye Blind or anyone else for that matter.

— Hootenanny
7:48 pm September 3rd, 2009

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