The Rams’ Draft Disasters
I’ve got two things for you today…
Two “5 Minute” sections for you. One on the Rams’ barren drafts, and the second on what the Dodgers’ acquisition of Jim Thome means to the Cardinals.
1. Why the Rams Bottomed Out: On Tuesday the Rams traded cornerback Tye Hill to Atlanta for a 7th-round draft pick and included tight end Joe Klopfenstein among the cuts to reduce the roster to 75. We’ve seen once again why the Rams won 5 of 32 games over the 2007 and 2008 seasons. The 2006 and 2007 drafts undermined the franchise. You have to score well on the premium picks, the guys selected in the firt three rounds; they should be forming form the young nucleus of a roster that’s transforming the franchise from loser to winner.
But look at these premium picks from 2006, which was particularly awful: CB Tye Hill (15th overall), TE Joe Klopfenstein (46th overall), DT Claude Wroten (68th overall), LB Jon Alston (77th overall), TE Dominique Byrd (93rd overall.) The Rams had five of the top 93 picks in the draft, and three seasons later, all of them are gone. Hill started 21 games, but only 11 over the past two seasons. And last season Hill gave up completions on 19 of the 22 passes attempted against him. Klopfenstein was technically a starter for 37 games but had a limited participation level. He caught 13 balls over the last two seasons and never developed competitive toughness. Wroten, Alston and Byrd never started a regular-season game. Alston, in fact, never dressed for the Rams in a regular-season game. He was cut in camp. But at least Alston didn’t have run-ins with the law (like Byrd) or violate the league’s substance-abuse policy (Wroten.)
This was an unbelievably bad draft class. And a double blow. Not only did these busts fail to do a job and help turn the Rams around, but the team has to invest additional draft picks in replacing them.
These drafts were conducted by head coach coach Scott Linehan and GM Jay Zygmunt. Both are gone from Rams Park. Horrible personnel decisions were a substantial part of their demise, and the impact is still reverberating. The new regime of GM Billy Devaney and head coach Steve Spagnuolo inherited a stripped-down roster and will need plenty of time to clean up the mess caused by Linehan and Zygmunt.
In drafting Hill, the Rams actually struck out twice. They had the 11th overall pick and could have used it to pick QB Jay Cutler. But they traded down to No. 15 and Denver moved up to take Cutler. You can make the case that Cutler didn’t work out in Denver; despite passing for 9,024 yards and 54 TDs in three seasons he had a falling out with the new Denver regime and was traded to Chicago earlier this year. But Cutler is an elite talent. And the Broncos received two No. 1 picks, a No. 3 draft pick, and QB Kyle Orton in return for Cutler. That’s quite a shipment. The Rams got a 7th-rounder from Atlanta for Hill.
(The Rams were apparently so embarrassed by this that they refused to divulge the nature of the draft pick obtained from Atlanta.)
Had the Rams kept the No. 11 pick, they could have chosen Cutler, DT Haloti Ngata (12th overall) DE/OLB Kamerion Wimbley (13th overall), DT Brodrick Bunkley (14th overall). But in taking Hill at 15th, they passed on LB Chad Greenway (17th), CB Antonio Cromartie (19th), DE Tamba Hali (20th), WR Santonio Holmes (25th), RB DeAngelo Williams (27th) and DE Mathias Kiwanika. There were four cornerbacks drafted after Hill in the first round and all four have done more in the NFL than Hill to this point.
And the 2007 draft hasn’t produced a big payoff, either. The Rams chose Adam Carriker in the first round at No. 13 overall. He’s battling to keep his starting job. Carriker has 44 tackles and only 2.5 sacks in 25 NFL starts. Injuries are an ongoing issue. In the second round (52nd overall) the Rams took RB Brian Leonard. He played in 18 games in two seasons and is already gone, having been peddled to Cincinnati earlier this year. The No. 3 pick (84th overall) was CB Jonathan Wade. He has speed and some promise. He’ll move in as a starter at Hill’s spot. But Wade has started only two NFL games in two seasons and obviously has a lot to prove.
The bottom line on the 2006-2007 Rams drafts, first three rounds: 8 players. And 6 are gone. Only 1 is a starter (Wade) and 1 may be a starter (Carriker).
But at least Devaney-Spagnuolo are turning the roster over and methodically dumping players who can’t perform at the NFL level.
As the roster stands now, the Rams would enter the regular season with only two corners, Ron Bartell and Wade, who have taken a snap in a regular-season NFL game. That’s rough.
2. The Jim Thome Trade: Thome has 564 homers. He’s one of the great sluggers of the era. He no longer plays first base, so will serve as a pinch-hitter for the Dodgers in the NL playoffs. If they’d get to the World Series, Thome could DH. But what does his presence mean to a potential Cardinals-Dodgers matchup in the NL playoffs? The bulk of his career stats are meaningless, because Thome piled them up earlier in his career, and a lot of the ABs came against guys who aren’t pitching for the Cardinals now.
Here’s what is pertinent:
* What kind of pinch-hitter is Thome? Answer: .215 in his career with 3 homers in 65 at-bats, with a .366 OBP and a .415 SLG. Over the past two seasons, Thome is 1 for 15 as a pinch hitter.
* How does Thome handle LH pitching? We ask that because we anticipate that he’ll encounter situational lefties in late-inning matchups. The answer: there’s a big gap between Thome’s performance vs. RHP compared to LHP. He’s a career .239 batter against lefties, with a .341 OBP and a .429 SLG. He hits 55 points higher against RHP. His OBP is 88 points higher and his slugging is 193 points higher against RHP.
* How are the Cardinals equipped to get get Thome out? Answer: Not bad. Not only do they have two lefty relief specialists in Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes, but it’s not as if their starters are helpless against lefthanded bats. Overall (including relievers) the Cardinals are ranked No. 1 in the majors in OPS vs. RH hitters (.685). But they’re fine against the lefthanded hitters, too, ranking No. 6 overall with an OPS against of .730.
LH bats:
.234 / .272 / .330 against Chris Carpenter;
.269 / .339 / .413 against Adam Wainwright;
.264 / .289 / .365 aganst Joel Pineiro;
.229 / .313 / .400 against Kyle Lohse.
There’s nothing terribly damaging there, though Wainwright has shown some vulnerability against LH bats.
Thome has punished Carpenter: 7 for 24 and 2 HR. But most of that was done earlier in their careers; since 2005 Thome has only two at-bats (one hit) vs. Carpenter. Thome is 3 for 13 (4 Ks) against Pineiro. He has never faced Wainwright. And while Thome is 4 for 10 with a HR against Lohse, he hasn’t gone against Lohse since 2002. Thome is 2 for 11 against John Smoltz but Smoltz is a different pitcher now.
* What about Thome against the lefty specialists? Answer: He beat ‘em up some earlier in his career, but not lately. For instance, Thome is 3 for 10 with 2 homers and 3 walks in his career against Reyes, and he’s 2 for 5 with a double against Miller.
But both of Thome’s HRs against Reyes came in 2004. Since the start of the 2005 season, Thome is 0 for 5 against Reyes (three walks) and 1 for 4 against Miller (3 Ks). And then there’s Kyle McClellan. Even though McClellan throws right, he’s had a reverse split going in his career. Over the last two seasons LH bats are only .211 / .314 / .319 against McClellan, including a .176 BA this season. With numbers like that McClellan could be considered an honorary lefty specialist.
(Some of this applies to a potential showdown between the Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies, who have those dangerous LH bats. Cardinals starters can hold their own against LH bats. The Cardinals also have the highest ground-ball rate, 63 percent, in the majors this season. And most of their relievers are tough against LH bats, who are 8 for 80 against Miller (.100); 16 for 74 (.216) against Reyes, 16 for 91 (.176) vs. McClellan, and 12 for 81 (.148) vs. closer Ryan Franklin.
Thome definitely helps the LA bench, as does the recent addition of INF Ronnie Belliard. But the Cardinals, at least in theory, seem as if they’d be able to offer quality resistance if Thome digs in on them in the late innings of a playoff game.
Thanks for reading…
-Bernie
Gawd…..thanks for elaborating on the woeful ‘06 and ‘07 Rams drafts. What pathetic talent assessment. It IS embarassing that Hill only yields a 7th round pick. But, I think he’s proven to most of us that he is nothing more than an undersized nickel back at best. Actually, the Rams drafts for most of this decade have been fairly unproductive. Maybe you or JT can write an in depth article on the topic? I suppose it’s equivalent to beating a dead horse….but we might learn something from it.
What is it about St Louis and football draft picks? It’s hard to imagine that things could get worse than George Boone drafting for the Big Red but, in no small feat, Scott Linehan and Jay Zygmunt pulled it off. It’s simply mind boggling. It will take 3-4 years to undo the damage those two inflicted upon the organization.
The Rams drafts are just horrible. There’s just so many picks, so many wasted lineman, it’s horrible. After the Giants won their Super Bowl the other year, their 3 previous drafts leading up to the big game produced many contributing players. They really hit the jackpot and you see what it’s done for that franchise. And that’s not including their pick for Eli Manning, which of course had a lot to do with it as well. But Bernie, I applaud you at the last draft, on draft day you made a case that the Rams should take Sanchez, and that draft opportunities like that don’t always come your way. Personally, I wanted Stafford, and I wasn’t totally sold on Sanchez since he only played 1 yr of college ball compared to Stafford who had some seasoning in the SEC. But Sanchez looks pretty good so far. I sure wish you made your pitch a little earlier than draft day. A franchise QB is a piece of the puzzle that the Rams must still search for, and right now we invested that opportunity in yet another lineman who some NFL experts are touting as a dancer rather than a mauler. A guy who is better suited for pass protection, rather than run blocking…………..Cards are the best team in the NL right now, but they’re going to be tested in the NL playoffs this year, both rounds, with or without the Cardinals, will feature great matchups………..Have a nice night!
Could Scott Linehan and Jay Zygmunt be sent to prison.What morons.I really hate Scott Linehan and cannot forgive that idiot for what he did to the Rams.
I’m glad we got a 7th round pick for Hill. At least we got something. He wasn’t worth a lollipop on a Sunday afternoon. His signature move was doing a 180 while his receiver scored. I’d rather have a sock puppet try to cover the WRs than Tye Hill. Good riddance.
been a rough stretch, but it happens. screw linehan, zygmunt, and the 2006 and 2007 draft classes…time to move on with devaney and spags….GO RAMS!
and…thome will be a nonfactor. probably get a big ph in the playoffs, but he is not a major difference maker. GO CARDS
What a shame, to be so bad for so long and just give away our shot at parity in the league. Finally, real football people evaluating football Players not just potential, speed and skills, or in our case, lack of skills. You can’t win without players.
I’m in no way making excuses for the former coaching staff, but it looks more and more like this entire mess is the direct result of Jay Zygmunt and John Shaw (as if we didn’t know already). The fact that Scott Linehan, nice enough man I’m sure, was given any say in drafting is just more evidence of the ineptitude of Zygmunt and Shaw. I get the “if I’m cooking the dinner at least let me shop for the groceries” but, Scott Linehan had no business in the kitchen.
What a huge list of bad, horribly bad, draft picks, signings and dead weight we have unloaded. I don’t count Big O and Holt among them. Business decisions, and God bless them, they got their money elsewhere. They are Rams forever. Ike too.
What makes me sad - We barely had time to be a proud franchise with Super Bowl credentials. How fast can a team go to heck in a handbasket?
I feel so confident that this ship has been righted. No forseeable icebergs. Maybe another year before we’re contenders but, teams better be ready to play us this year. Have you noticed the incredible change in attitudes on the sidelines as well as on the field? It’s a cool feeling to see that mentality back. I think we have to give credit to coach Spags on that one. I know, we haven’t played a game yet. I have faith, finally, in the entire organization, as long as John Shaw’s advisory role is limited to ….I don’t know, California beaches.
Go Rams!
BillP, the Rams did the right thing in drafting JS this past draft in the first round. The “NFL expert” you’re quoting doesn’t know squat as opposed to what the film shows. JS is a mauler in run support. It’s his pass protection that he needs to work on and gain some consistency.
Sanchez, compared to the QB’s that are coming out this next year is a pale comparison of a QB. Tebow, Brennon, Bradford, and many others that are clearly better, have better mechanics, more game experience than one year, and are bigger with better arms. If QB is where the Rams are weak this next year, this is the class to choose from as opposed to the only 2 QBs that were worth anything in this last draft and they were both underclassman which have proved to be a crap shoot in the draft.
Besides all this, any QB we might have taken would have had to play behind the horrible line the Rams had. He would have spent most of his time on his butt. The FO, HC, and Rams’s staff know that to start fixing a football team, it’s in the trenches. If we don’t have to pick a QB because Bulger or Boller rebounds then we can concentrate on our DL which is in almost as much of a mess as our o-line was.
By mid season our o-line will be a strength of this team, barring injuries. The only question will be if our QB and star RB can stay healthy enough to get to that timeline.
The problems with repeated bad drafts is that it takes repeated good ones to overcome the problems. You can’t afford to miss or take risks like Sanchez was. He was a one year wonder with a lot of charisma. He is struggling in NY but because of his draft position he is being thrown in there by Rex Ryan. I hope they get enough of their injured o-lineman back to keep him upright or he’s going to have the same problems he would have had here.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a Cardinal Dodger NLCS. I would hate to see the Cards against the Phillies. Ryan Howard hurts them in Philadelphia but he murders them in St. Louis. Something about playing at home charges him up.